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NFL · KC @ DEN · Simulation

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation

KC 18 — 22 DEN · win chance KC 35.3% · DEN 61.9% · total 40

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

38.6%KC win in the simulated games

60.9%DEN win in the simulated games

0.5%tie after overtime

3.2%game goes to overtime

KC 17 – 21 DENmedian score · averages 18.16 – 21.95

40median total · 80% of games 24–56

DEN by 4median margin · 80% range: KC by 14 to DEN by 21

43.7%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.9% · 6.5%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: DEN points minus KC points (below 0 means KC won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (4). Range shown -45 to 51.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (40). Range shown 0 to 92.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
KC	7	17	30	18.16
DEN	10	21	34	21.95

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	KC median (80%)	DEN median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	KC wins it	DEN wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	7 (3–17)	34.1%	46.1%	19.8%
Q2	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	11 (3–21)	37.3%	48.4%	14.3%
Q3	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	7 (0–17)	34.5%	45.1%	20.4%
Q4	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–20)	36.0%	45.9%	18.0%
1st half	9 (0–17)	10 (3–21)	20 (10–32)	38.9%	53.8%	7.3%
2nd half	7 (0–17)	10 (3–20)	19 (9–31)	37.9%	53.2%	8.9%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	KC	DEN
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (49–75)	63 (50–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–43)
Completions	23 (16–30)	22 (15–29)
Passing yards	186 (107–277)	198 (116–290)
Passing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–34)	26 (18–36)
Rushing yards	112 (54–190)	116 (57–197)
Rushing TDs	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
KC	14.0%	30.3%	30.2%	17.7%	6.3%	1.6%
DEN	7.8%	23.3%	30.3%	23.6%	10.4%	4.5%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

KC passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Patrick Mahomes QB	30 (22–40)	20 (14–28)	166 (92–253)	1.0	1.0

KC rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Kenneth Walker III RB	17 (11–24)	77 (33–142)	0.5
Patrick Mahomes QB	4 (2–7)	13 (1–42)	0.1
Emmett Johnson RB	2 (0–4)	3 (0–21)	0.1
Khyiris Tonga DT	0 (0–1)	0 (0–2)	0.0

KC receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Rashee Rice WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	31 (5–75)	0.2
Travis Kelce TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	23 (2–64)	0.2
Xavier Worthy WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	22 (2–60)	0.2
Tyquan Thornton WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	16 (0–54)	0.1
Kenneth Walker III RB	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–42)	0.1
Noah Gray TE	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	8 (0–39)	0.1

DEN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Bo Nix QB	33 (24–43)	22 (15–29)	198 (116–290)	1.4	0.9

DEN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
J.K. Dobbins RB	10 (6–15)	37 (11–84)	0.3
Bo Nix QB	6 (3–10)	26 (6–66)	0.2
Jonah Coleman RB	5 (2–8)	18 (2–53)	0.2
RJ Harvey RB	4 (1–7)	12 (0–42)	0.1

DEN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Jaylen Waddle WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	31 (5–77)	0.3
Courtland Sutton WR	4 (2–8)	3 (1–5)	20 (0–59)	0.2
RJ Harvey RB	4 (1–7)	3 (1–5)	19 (1–58)	0.1
Evan Engram TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–46)	0.1
Pat Bryant WR	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–45)	0.1
Marvin Mims Jr. WR	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–43)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Kenneth Walker III RB	KC	45.5%	11.0%	13.9%
J.K. Dobbins RB	DEN	31.9%	5.4%	9.4%
Jaylen Waddle WR	DEN	25.4%	3.1%	7.7%
RJ Harvey RB	DEN	24.6%	3.3%	7.3%
Jonah Coleman RB	DEN	20.4%	2.1%	5.5%
Rashee Rice WR	KC	18.5%	1.8%	5.3%
Courtland Sutton WR	DEN	17.9%	1.4%	4.7%
Xavier Worthy WR	KC	16.1%	1.1%	4.0%
Travis Kelce TE	KC	15.3%	1.1%	4.1%
Bo Nix QB	DEN	15.0%	1.1%	4.1%
Evan Engram TE	DEN	12.8%	0.9%	3.5%
Marvin Mims Jr. WR	DEN	11.6%	0.6%	3.0%
Tyquan Thornton WR	KC	11.5%	0.6%	3.0%
Pat Bryant WR	DEN	10.8%	0.5%	2.9%
Emmett Johnson RB	KC	10.4%	0.6%	2.8%
Troy Franklin WR	DEN	8.3%	0.3%	2.2%

First touchdown by team: KC 43.1% · DEN 55.9% · no offensive touchdown 1.0%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: KC 18 – 22 DEN

By quarter: KC 0 / 5 / 7 / 6 · DEN 3 / 6 / 7 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (KC–DEN)
1	DEN	82	fg	9	56	0–3
1	KC	76	fg miss	6	68	0–3
1	DEN	74	turnover	4	41	0–3
1	KC	69	punt	3	3	0–3
1	DEN	96	punt	6	11	0–3
1	KC	55	turnover	1	6	0–3
1	DEN	61	fg	9	59	0–6
2	KC	84	punt	3	37	0–6
2	DEN	96	safety	3	-4	2–6
2	KC	57	punt	4	-3	2–6
2	DEN	80	punt	3	-5	2–6
2	KC	68	fg	3	60	5–6
2	DEN	70	fg	10	51	5–9
2	KC	62	td	7	62	12–9
3	DEN	85	td	5	85	12–16
3	KC	64	punt	6	16	12–16
3	DEN	89	fg	11	42	12–19
4	KC	69	punt	3	22	12–19
4	DEN	83	fg	3	60	12–22
4	KC	76	td	9	76	18–22
4	DEN	74	punt	3	9	18–22
4	KC	77	downs	11	43	18–22
4	DEN	65	punt	7	8	18–22
4	KC	73	end half	4	29	18–22

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: KC 26 – 30 DEN

By quarter: KC 12 / 14 / 0 / 0 · DEN 3 / 8 / 10 / 9

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (KC–DEN)
1	KC	80	punt	3	34	0–0
1	DEN	99	punt	3	6	0–0
1	KC	44	fg	6	8	3–0
1	DEN	74	punt	5	37	3–0
1	KC	99	td	9	99	9–0
1	DEN	54	fg	3	21	9–3
1	KC	60	fg	6	31	12–3
1	DEN	65	punt	5	-7	12–3
2	KC	88	td	1	88	19–3
2	DEN	81	punt	3	9	19–3
2	KC	62	turnover	4	41	19–3
2	DEN	93	punt	3	20	19–3
2	KC	58	punt	3	4	19–3
2	DEN	76	downs	5	69	19–3
2	KC	92	td	3	92	26–3
2	DEN	51	td	12	51	26–11
2	DEN	66	td	8	66	26–18
3	KC	81	punt	3	4	26–18
3	DEN	53	fg	8	44	26–21
3	KC	74	fg miss	10	40	26–21
3	DEN	48	fg	7	31	26–24
4	KC	70	turnover	7	64	26–24
4	DEN	94	td	3	94	26–30
4	KC	44	punt	8	-1	26–30
4	DEN	99	punt	3	18	26–30
4	KC	51	end half	13	10	26–30

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: KC 10 – 14 DEN

By quarter: KC 0 / 0 / 10 / 0 · DEN 7 / 0 / 0 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (KC–DEN)
1	KC	65	punt	3	10	0–0
1	DEN	83	punt	3	30	0–0
1	KC	73	punt	3	7	0–0
1	DEN	73	punt	3	-2	0–0
1	KC	59	turnover	6	22	0–0
1	DEN	39	td	10	39	0–7
1	KC	81	punt	3	11	0–7
2	DEN	84	punt	3	18	0–7
2	KC	94	punt	6	5	0–7
2	DEN	43	turnover	4	27	0–7
2	KC	76	punt	3	10	0–7
2	DEN	92	punt	6	45	0–7
2	KC	70	punt	3	28	0–7
2	DEN	87	end half	1	-3	0–7
2	DEN	68	downs	10	30	0–7
3	KC	56	td	8	56	7–7
3	DEN	74	punt	3	3	7–7
3	KC	68	fg	6	55	10–7
3	DEN	72	punt	3	30	10–7
4	KC	82	punt	3	14	10–7
4	DEN	58	td	6	58	10–14
4	KC	80	punt	3	10	10–14
4	DEN	77	punt	3	9	10–14
4	KC	73	end half	10	-1	10–14

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 27, 8:18 PM ET · before kickoff Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
Seed	3ecf9cbf · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 40 / margin.median 4 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means DEN 22.09 / KC 18.13
Availability	injuries as of Oct 27, 8:16 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 27, 8:16 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873033:5127bdc4b5b6f0b0

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.