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NFL · LAC @ LAR · Simulation

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation

LAC 19 — 26 LAR · win chance LAC 23.0% · LAR 74.3% · total 45

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

31.6%LAC win in the simulated games

68.1%LAR win in the simulated games

0.3%tie after overtime

3.2%game goes to overtime

LAC 19 – 26 LARmedian score · averages 19.41 – 26.01

45median total · 80% of games 29–62

LAR by 7median margin · 80% range: LAC by 11 to LAR by 24

41.8%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.0% · 6.5%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: LAR points minus LAC points (below 0 means LAC won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (7). Range shown -45 to 60.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (45). Range shown 8 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
LAC	7	19	31	19.41
LAR	13	26	38	26.01

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	LAC median (80%)	LAR median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	LAC wins it	LAR wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–17)	32.6%	50.1%	17.3%
Q2	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	34.0%	53.3%	12.7%
Q3	3 (0–10)	7 (0–13)	10 (3–17)	31.4%	49.7%	18.8%
Q4	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	11 (3–21)	33.3%	51.1%	15.6%
1st half	10 (3–19)	13 (5–23)	23 (13–35)	33.7%	59.9%	6.5%
2nd half	9 (0–17)	13 (3–21)	21 (10–34)	33.3%	59.2%	7.5%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	LAC	LAR
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	61 (49–74)	64 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–42)
Completions	22 (16–30)	23 (17–31)
Passing yards	199 (118–296)	216 (133–312)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (17–33)	27 (19–37)
Rushing yards	111 (52–190)	132 (68–215)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
LAC	10.5%	26.2%	30.5%	20.9%	8.6%	3.1%
LAR	3.4%	14.2%	26.2%	27.7%	18.1%	10.5%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

LAC passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Justin Herbert QB	34 (25–44)	22 (15–30)	199 (117–295)	1.3	1.0
Tre' Harris WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–0)	0 (0–0)	0.0	0.0

LAC rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Justin Herbert QB	8 (4–12)	36 (10–83)	0.2
Omarion Hampton RB	8 (4–13)	31 (8–75)	0.3
Kimani Vidal RB	4 (1–7)	13 (1–44)	0.1
Keaton Mitchell RB	3 (1–6)	11 (0–41)	0.1

LAC receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Tre' Harris WR	4 (1–7)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–57)	0.1
Charlie Kolar TE	3 (1–6)	2 (1–4)	15 (0–50)	0.1
Quentin Johnston WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–48)	0.1
David Njoku TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–46)	0.1
Ladd McConkey WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–45)	0.1
KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–44)	0.1

LAR passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Matthew Stafford QB	32 (24–41)	22 (16–30)	210 (127–305)	1.7	0.6

LAR rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Kyren Williams RB	12 (7–18)	58 (22–114)	0.5
Blake Corum RB	8 (4–12)	35 (10–80)	0.3
Matthew Stafford QB	3 (1–6)	12 (0–38)	0.1
Ronnie Rivers RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–26)	0.1

LAR receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Puka Nacua WR	11 (7–16)	8 (4–12)	71 (26–132)	0.6
Kyren Williams RB	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	24 (3–64)	0.3
Tyler Higbee TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	23 (2–64)	0.2
Colby Parkinson TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	19 (1–58)	0.2
Konata Mumpfield WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–3)	11 (0–46)	0.1
Davis Allen TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–38)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Kyren Williams RB	LAR	53.9%	16.0%	15.7%
Puka Nacua WR	LAR	47.9%	12.6%	13.5%
Blake Corum RB	LAR	34.2%	6.2%	8.6%
Omarion Hampton RB	LAC	28.6%	4.1%	6.6%
Tyler Higbee TE	LAR	19.9%	1.7%	4.6%
Colby Parkinson TE	LAR	19.6%	1.9%	4.5%
Justin Herbert QB	LAC	18.9%	1.5%	4.1%
Keaton Mitchell RB	LAC	18.0%	1.8%	3.8%
Kimani Vidal RB	LAC	17.3%	1.4%	4.0%
Konata Mumpfield WR	LAR	14.4%	1.0%	3.4%
Tre' Harris WR	LAC	14.0%	0.9%	3.1%
Charlie Kolar TE	LAC	12.8%	0.8%	2.9%
Quentin Johnston WR	LAC	12.4%	0.7%	2.6%
Davis Allen TE	LAR	11.4%	0.6%	2.7%
Ronnie Rivers RB	LAR	11.1%	0.5%	2.5%
KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR	LAC	11.1%	0.5%	2.2%

First touchdown by team: LAC 40.3% · LAR 59.4% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: LAC 19 – 26 LAR (OT)

By quarter: LAC 0 / 13 / 3 / 3 / OT 0 · LAR 6 / 0 / 0 / 13 / OT 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LAC–LAR)
1	LAR	61	td	6	61	0–6
1	LAC	62	punt	5	19	0–6
1	LAR	99	punt	4	6	0–6
1	LAC	64	punt	5	11	0–6
1	LAR	97	punt	8	9	0–6
1	LAC	53	fg	10	42	3–6
2	LAR	65	punt	3	2	3–6
2	LAC	89	punt	3	16	3–6
2	LAR	79	punt	3	26	3–6
2	LAC	89	punt	3	45	3–6
2	LAR	92	punt	6	3	3–6
2	LAC	53	td	7	53	10–6
2	LAR	71	turnover	4	-6	10–6
2	LAC	33	fg	5	2	13–6
2	LAR	71	end half	3	3	13–6
2	LAC	65	punt	4	20	13–6
3	LAR	99	punt	5	5	13–6
3	LAC	60	fg	10	39	16–6
3	LAR	65	punt	3	22	16–6
3	LAC	95	punt	3	48	16–6
3	LAR	91	punt	6	8	16–6
3	LAC	67	downs	8	27	16–6
4	LAR	59	td	5	59	16–13
4	LAC	69	punt	6	3	16–13
4	LAR	69	td	10	69	16–19
4	LAC	65	fg	12	41	19–19
4	LAR	67	end half	1	7	19–19
OT	LAC	72	punt	8	32	19–19
OT	LAR	74	td	13	74	19–26

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: LAC 28 – 35 LAR (OT)

By quarter: LAC 8 / 10 / 10 / 0 / OT 0 · LAR 8 / 7 / 0 / 13 / OT 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LAC–LAR)
1	LAR	80	td	8	80	0–8
1	LAC	63	td	9	63	8–8
1	LAR	74	fg miss	10	40	8–8
1	LAC	55	punt	7	5	8–8
1	LAR	76	td	12	76	8–15
2	LAC	70	fg	10	44	11–15
2	LAR	65	punt	3	2	11–15
2	LAC	79	td	15	79	18–15
2	LAR	68	end half	5	45	18–15
2	LAC	86	turnover	1	34	18–15
3	LAR	48	punt	3	-6	18–15
3	LAC	77	td	5	77	25–15
3	LAR	74	punt	3	3	25–15
3	LAC	67	fg	11	16	28–15
3	LAR	76	punt	4	39	28–15
3	LAC	99	punt	5	0	28–15
4	LAR	33	td	3	33	28–21
4	LAC	83	punt	3	1	28–21
4	LAR	39	downs	4	2	28–21
4	LAC	53	punt	6	9	28–21
4	LAR	72	punt	3	5	28–21
4	LAC	67	punt	5	4	28–21
4	LAR	72	td	2	72	28–28
4	LAC	73	punt	3	7	28–28
4	LAR	86	end half	10	6	28–28
OT	LAC	75	fg miss	3	43	28–28
OT	LAR	60	turnover	1	15	28–28
OT	LAC	37	turnover	2	-1	28–28
OT	LAR	47	td	5	47	28–35

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: LAC 10 – 17 LAR

By quarter: LAC 0 / 3 / 0 / 7 · LAR 0 / 7 / 10 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LAC–LAR)
1	LAC	71	fg miss	6	32	0–0
1	LAR	53	punt	3	-8	0–0
1	LAC	89	punt	3	6	0–0
1	LAR	73	turnover	2	28	0–0
1	LAC	75	fg	15	60	3–0
2	LAR	79	td	10	79	3–7
2	LAC	74	punt	6	26	3–7
2	LAR	73	punt	8	10	3–7
2	LAC	72	end half	5	-1	3–7
2	LAR	71	fg	4	44	3–10
3	LAC	65	punt	5	19	3–10
3	LAR	94	td	4	94	3–17
3	LAC	76	punt	3	7	3–17
3	LAR	94	punt	3	1	3–17
3	LAC	50	downs	7	39	3–17
3	LAR	89	punt	6	10	3–17
4	LAC	66	punt	8	18	3–17
4	LAR	88	downs	7	32	3–17
4	LAC	43	td	9	43	10–17
4	LAR	61	end half	3	31	10–17

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 29, 4:10 PM ET · before kickoff Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
Seed	4904616e · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 45 / margin.median 6 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means LAR 25.38 / LAC 19.53
Availability	injuries as of Oct 29, 4:08 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 29, 4:08 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873032:2f1ef6f2f3e6b989

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.