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NFL · TEN @ CIN · Simulation

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation

TEN 18 — 28 CIN · win chance TEN 16.1% · CIN 81.8% · total 46

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

22.9%TEN win in the simulated games

76.8%CIN win in the simulated games

0.3%tie after overtime

2.7%game goes to overtime

TEN 17 – 27 CINmedian score · averages 18.11 – 28.03

46median total · 80% of games 30–63

CIN by 10median margin · 80% range: TEN by 8 to CIN by 27

37.1%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

7.3% · 5.7%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: CIN points minus TEN points (below 0 means TEN won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (10). Range shown -42 to 63.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (46). Range shown 4 to 104.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
TEN	7	17	30	18.11
CIN	16	27	41	28.03

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	TEN median (80%)	CIN median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	TEN wins it	CIN wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–17)	29.0%	53.5%	17.5%
Q2	6 (0–13)	7 (0–15)	13 (6–23)	28.8%	58.8%	12.4%
Q3	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–18)	27.2%	55.1%	17.7%
Q4	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	11 (3–21)	28.5%	55.5%	16.0%
1st half	9 (0–17)	14 (6–24)	24 (13–36)	28.1%	65.7%	6.2%
2nd half	7 (0–17)	13 (6–23)	21 (10–34)	26.7%	65.7%	7.6%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	TEN	CIN
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	61 (48–74)	64 (52–76)
Pass attempts	34 (26–44)	32 (24–42)
Completions	23 (16–30)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	197 (115–293)	231 (145–329)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–4)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	23 (16–32)	28 (20–37)
Rushing yards	106 (50–182)	128 (65–214)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
TEN	12.3%	29.0%	30.2%	18.9%	7.3%	2.3%
CIN	2.2%	11.1%	22.9%	27.4%	21.3%	15.1%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

TEN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Cam Ward QB	31 (23–40)	20 (14–28)	176 (99–266)	1.1	1.0

TEN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Tony Pollard RB	13 (8–19)	58 (21–115)	0.4
Cam Ward QB	3 (1–6)	13 (1–43)	0.1
Tyjae Spears RB	2 (1–5)	6 (0–29)	0.1
Nicholas Singleton RB	2 (0–4)	4 (0–25)	0.1

TEN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Carnell Tate WR	8 (4–12)	5 (2–9)	45 (11–97)	0.3
Wan'Dale Robinson WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	30 (5–74)	0.2
Elic Ayomanor WR	4 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–53)	0.1
Tyjae Spears RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	12 (0–45)	0.1
Gunnar Helm TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–43)	0.1
Calvin Ridley WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–42)	0.1

CIN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Joe Burrow QB	32 (24–42)	23 (16–30)	231 (145–329)	1.9	0.5

CIN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Chase Brown RB	15 (9–21)	63 (25–123)	0.6
Samaje Perine RB	6 (3–9)	23 (4–62)	0.3
Joe Burrow QB	5 (3–9)	23 (5–61)	0.2
Tahj Brooks RB	1 (0–3)	2 (0–17)	0.1

CIN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Tee Higgins WR	7 (3–10)	4 (2–8)	48 (12–104)	0.4
Ja'Marr Chase WR	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	48 (13–102)	0.4
Chase Brown RB	4 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	24 (3–64)	0.3
Mike Gesicki TE	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–48)	0.2
Dohnte Meyers WR	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–46)	0.1
Mitchell Tinsley WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–41)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Chase Brown RB	CIN	61.2%	22.0%	18.0%
Tony Pollard RB	TEN	39.6%	8.3%	9.8%
Ja'Marr Chase WR	CIN	36.1%	7.1%	9.4%
Tee Higgins WR	CIN	33.4%	5.8%	8.2%
Samaje Perine RB	CIN	27.6%	4.1%	7.3%
Carnell Tate WR	TEN	24.3%	3.0%	5.3%
Wan'Dale Robinson WR	TEN	21.1%	1.9%	4.1%
Tyjae Spears RB	TEN	16.9%	1.6%	3.5%
Joe Burrow QB	CIN	16.5%	1.3%	3.8%
Mike Gesicki TE	CIN	14.5%	1.2%	3.3%
Dohnte Meyers WR	CIN	14.5%	0.8%	3.2%
Mitchell Tinsley WR	CIN	12.7%	1.0%	2.9%
Elic Ayomanor WR	TEN	12.3%	0.8%	2.5%
Andrei Iosivas WR	CIN	11.6%	0.4%	2.7%
Gunnar Helm TE	TEN	9.8%	0.3%	1.8%
Drew Sample TE	CIN	9.3%	0.4%	1.8%

First touchdown by team: TEN 35.8% · CIN 63.8% · no offensive touchdown 0.4%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: TEN 18 – 28 CIN

By quarter: TEN 3 / 6 / 3 / 6 · CIN 0 / 14 / 7 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (TEN–CIN)
1	CIN	75	turnover	9	3	0–0
1	TEN	31	fg	9	18	3–0
1	CIN	35	punt	7	-2	3–0
1	TEN	74	punt	4	24	3–0
2	CIN	78	punt	4	1	3–0
2	TEN	75	fg	4	35	6–0
2	CIN	78	td	4	78	6–7
2	TEN	72	fg	4	41	9–7
2	CIN	78	td	10	78	9–14
2	TEN	60	punt	6	5	9–14
3	CIN	75	downs	11	37	9–14
3	TEN	62	fg	6	36	12–14
3	CIN	67	td	2	67	12–21
3	TEN	69	punt	3	13	12–21
4	CIN	83	turnover	4	69	12–21
4	TEN	55	td	10	55	18–21
4	CIN	65	td	11	65	18–28

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: TEN 27 – 36 CIN

By quarter: TEN 10 / 3 / 7 / 7 · CIN 13 / 7 / 7 / 9

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (TEN–CIN)
1	CIN	80	td	3	80	0–6
1	TEN	48	fg	4	4	3–6
1	CIN	65	td	8	65	3–13
1	TEN	82	td	7	82	10–13
1	CIN	70	punt	3	-4	10–13
1	TEN	63	fg	11	37	13–13
2	CIN	69	punt	7	0	13–13
2	TEN	77	punt	5	5	13–13
2	CIN	66	punt	4	2	13–13
2	TEN	79	punt	3	6	13–13
2	CIN	67	td	10	67	13–20
2	TEN	81	turnover	10	11	13–20
3	CIN	1	td	1	1	13–27
3	TEN	74	td	8	74	20–27
3	CIN	60	fg	8	22	20–30
4	TEN	59	td	9	59	27–30
4	CIN	36	td	6	36	27–36
4	TEN	75	punt	3	25	27–36
4	CIN	62	end half	2	-10	27–36

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: TEN 10 – 20 CIN

By quarter: TEN 7 / 0 / 0 / 3 · CIN 3 / 0 / 7 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (TEN–CIN)
1	TEN	75	td	10	75	7–0
1	CIN	80	fg	6	61	7–3
1	TEN	77	punt	3	6	7–3
1	CIN	67	punt	3	3	7–3
1	TEN	70	punt	5	29	7–3
1	CIN	99	punt	3	17	7–3
2	TEN	67	turnover	7	7	7–3
2	CIN	48	turnover	9	33	7–3
2	TEN	85	punt	6	25	7–3
2	CIN	65	end half	9	20	7–3
2	CIN	65	punt	3	19	7–3
3	TEN	99	punt	6	8	7–3
3	CIN	51	td	10	51	7–10
3	TEN	65	fg	12	38	10–10
4	CIN	84	td	3	84	10–17
4	TEN	60	downs	5	36	10–17
4	CIN	76	fg	9	60	10–20
4	TEN	74	downs	9	11	10–20
4	CIN	37	end half	1	-1	10–20

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 27, 8:18 PM ET · before kickoff Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	af4f9d9a · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 46 / margin.median 10 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means CIN 28.12 / TEN 18.01
Availability	injuries as of Oct 27, 8:16 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 27, 8:16 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873031:0262890c751010e0

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.