Today · Oct 30 · 10 events Latest results· Oct 29

NFL · MIN @ DET · Simulation

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation

MIN 20 — 24 DET · win chance MIN 40.3% · DET 56.9% · total 44

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

37.9%MIN win in the simulated games

61.8%DET win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.3%game goes to overtime

MIN 20 – 24 DETmedian score · averages 20.1 – 24.18

44median total · 80% of games 29–61

DET by 4median margin · 80% range: MIN by 14 to DET by 22

44.0%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

9.3% · 6.2%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: DET points minus MIN points (below 0 means MIN won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (4). Range shown -45 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (44). Range shown 4 to 96.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
MIN	9	20	32	20.1
DET	13	24	37	24.18

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	MIN median (80%)	DET median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	MIN wins it	DET wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–17)	35.9%	46.6%	17.5%
Q2	6 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–22)	37.3%	49.8%	12.9%
Q3	3 (0–10)	6 (0–11)	9 (3–17)	35.1%	46.0%	18.9%
Q4	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	36.2%	46.8%	17.0%
1st half	10 (3–20)	13 (3–21)	23 (12–34)	38.4%	55.1%	6.5%
2nd half	10 (0–17)	10 (3–21)	20 (10–33)	37.8%	53.9%	8.3%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	MIN	DET
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (49–75)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–43)
Completions	23 (16–31)	22 (16–30)
Passing yards	202 (120–296)	213 (131–309)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–33)	26 (18–36)
Rushing yards	112 (53–191)	120 (60–202)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
MIN	9.2%	25.4%	31.1%	21.7%	9.4%	3.3%
DET	4.9%	17.9%	27.8%	26.0%	15.6%	7.7%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

MIN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Kyler Murray QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–31)	202 (120–296)	1.3	1.0

MIN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Aaron Jones Sr. RB	9 (5–14)	37 (11–86)	0.3
Kyler Murray QB	7 (3–11)	29 (7–69)	0.2
Jordan Mason RB	7 (4–11)	28 (6–69)	0.2
Demond Claiborne RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–12)	0.0

MIN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Justin Jefferson WR	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	41 (9–91)	0.3
T.J. Hockenson TE	5 (2–9)	4 (2–7)	28 (5–72)	0.2
Jordan Addison WR	5 (2–9)	3 (1–6)	25 (2–68)	0.2
Aaron Jones Sr. RB	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–44)	0.1
Josh Oliver TE	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	9 (0–42)	0.1
Gavin Bartholomew TE	2 (1–5)	2 (0–3)	9 (0–39)	0.1

DET passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jared Goff QB	30 (22–39)	20 (14–27)	192 (114–283)	1.5	0.6

DET rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jahmyr Gibbs RB	18 (12–26)	83 (35–151)	0.7
Jared Goff QB	3 (1–5)	9 (0–33)	0.1
Sione Vaki RB	2 (0–4)	3 (0–22)	0.1
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–0)	0.0

DET receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	9 (5–14)	6 (3–10)	58 (19–116)	0.5
Jameson Williams WR	5 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	32 (4–79)	0.3
Jahmyr Gibbs RB	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	30 (5–75)	0.3
Sam LaPorta TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	27 (3–70)	0.2
Isaac TeSlaa WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	10 (0–44)	0.1
Brock Wright TE	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)	1 (0–24)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Jahmyr Gibbs RB	DET	63.8%	24.6%	20.7%
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	DET	39.1%	8.0%	10.4%
Aaron Jones Sr. RB	MIN	36.6%	6.6%	9.4%
Justin Jefferson WR	MIN	24.2%	2.9%	5.8%
Jordan Mason RB	MIN	23.7%	2.6%	5.8%
Jameson Williams WR	DET	23.5%	2.4%	5.6%
Sam LaPorta TE	DET	21.7%	2.2%	5.1%
T.J. Hockenson TE	MIN	20.6%	1.8%	4.7%
Jordan Addison WR	MIN	19.8%	1.8%	4.6%
Other / unallocated	DET	19.5%	1.8%	4.8%
Kyler Murray QB	MIN	15.6%	1.2%	3.5%
Isaac TeSlaa WR	DET	12.1%	0.6%	2.7%
Josh Oliver TE	MIN	9.8%	0.5%	2.1%
Gavin Bartholomew TE	MIN	9.2%	0.4%	2.3%
Sione Vaki RB	DET	8.3%	0.3%	2.0%
Jauan Jennings WR	MIN	6.6%	0.1%	1.4%

First touchdown by team: MIN 44.5% · DET 55.1% · no offensive touchdown 0.5%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: MIN 20 – 24 DET

By quarter: MIN 7 / 6 / 0 / 7 · DET 0 / 7 / 10 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (MIN–DET)
1	MIN	72	td	14	72	7–0
1	DET	85	punt	4	29	7–0
1	MIN	83	downs	5	52	7–0
1	DET	74	turnover	2	36	7–0
1	MIN	62	turnover	7	1	7–0
2	DET	39	td	4	39	7–7
2	MIN	70	fg	7	44	10–7
2	DET	78	punt	6	-3	10–7
2	MIN	52	turnover	7	48	10–7
2	DET	99	punt	4	2	10–7
2	MIN	12	fg	8	5	13–7
2	DET	73	turnover	1	69	13–7
3	MIN	99	opp td	7	31	13–14
3	MIN	74	punt	3	37	13–14
3	DET	99	fg	5	72	13–17
3	MIN	72	punt	3	37	13–17
3	DET	99	punt	3	17	13–17
3	MIN	23	td	7	23	20–17
4	DET	65	downs	5	34	20–17
4	MIN	69	punt	3	-6	20–17
4	DET	75	td	13	75	20–24
4	MIN	74	fg miss	14	50	20–24
4	DET	58	end half	3	0	20–24

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: MIN 28 – 33 DET

By quarter: MIN 0 / 14 / 7 / 7 · DET 3 / 10 / 10 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (MIN–DET)
1	DET	69	fg miss	4	28	0–0
1	MIN	41	punt	7	4	0–0
1	DET	96	fg	7	65	0–3
1	MIN	69	punt	5	3	0–3
1	DET	93	fg miss	5	28	0–3
1	MIN	27	td	4	27	7–3
2	DET	61	fg	5	53	7–6
2	MIN	72	punt	3	6	7–6
2	DET	80	punt	3	4	7–6
2	MIN	61	opp td	4	9	7–13
2	MIN	69	td	9	69	14–13
2	DET	65	punt	6	33	14–13
2	MIN	99	end half	1	0	14–13
2	MIN	70	fg miss	8	39	14–13
3	DET	56	td	2	56	14–20
3	MIN	53	punt	6	1	14–20
3	DET	48	fg	3	21	14–23
3	MIN	69	td	10	69	21–23
3	DET	69	punt	3	-1	21–23
3	MIN	77	downs	5	67	21–23
3	DET	90	td	5	90	21–30
4	MIN	69	td	8	69	28–30
4	DET	72	punt	3	6	28–30
4	MIN	91	punt	4	13	28–30
4	DET	24	fg	9	-1	28–33
4	MIN	65	turnover	2	31	28–33
4	DET	67	punt	3	8	28–33
4	MIN	78	end half	10	60	28–33

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: MIN 12 – 16 DET

By quarter: MIN 6 / 0 / 3 / 3 · DET 3 / 0 / 3 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (MIN–DET)
1	MIN	71	fg	3	22	3–0
1	DET	73	turnover	1	3	3–0
1	MIN	29	fg	7	6	6–0
1	DET	65	fg	13	32	6–3
1	MIN	80	punt	4	23	6–3
1	DET	78	punt	3	9	6–3
2	MIN	76	punt	3	9	6–3
2	DET	85	turnover	7	73	6–3
2	MIN	82	punt	8	0	6–3
2	DET	65	end half	1	-11	6–3
2	DET	65	fg	13	39	6–6
3	MIN	69	fg	6	36	9–6
3	DET	76	downs	4	33	9–6
3	MIN	57	fg	7	31	12–6
4	DET	44	td	7	44	12–13
4	MIN	69	punt	3	4	12–13
4	DET	46	fg	7	30	12–16
4	MIN	72	punt	3	6	12–16
4	DET	58	end half	2	22	12–16

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 26, 8:17 PM ET · before kickoff Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	445bf3ea · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 44 / margin.median 4 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means DET 23.96 / MIN 19.97
Availability	injuries as of Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873030:c2fd0383c09d840f

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.