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NFL · LV @ NYJ · Simulation

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation

LV 20 — 24 NYJ · win chance LV 41.5% · NYJ 55.7% · total 44

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

39.3%LV win in the simulated games

60.3%NYJ win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.5%game goes to overtime

LV 20 – 24 NYJmedian score · averages 20.46 – 24.12

44median total · 80% of games 29–61

NYJ by 4median margin · 80% range: LV by 14 to NYJ by 21

43.9%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.2% · 6.9%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: NYJ points minus LV points (below 0 means LV won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (4). Range shown -57 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (44). Range shown 4 to 92.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
LV	9	20	33	20.46
NYJ	13	24	37	24.12

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	LV median (80%)	NYJ median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	LV wins it	NYJ wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	6 (0–12)	10 (3–17)	36.8%	45.8%	17.5%
Q2	6 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	36.8%	50.3%	13.0%
Q3	3 (0–10)	6 (0–10)	10 (3–17)	35.9%	45.3%	18.8%
Q4	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	37.1%	46.2%	16.6%
1st half	10 (3–20)	13 (3–21)	23 (12–34)	38.9%	54.6%	6.5%
2nd half	10 (0–18)	10 (3–21)	21 (10–33)	39.2%	52.9%	7.8%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	LV	NYJ
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (25–43)
Completions	22 (16–30)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	212 (127–307)	217 (133–312)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–34)	26 (18–36)
Rushing yards	104 (49–179)	120 (58–200)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
LV	9.3%	23.7%	31.4%	21.7%	10.1%	3.8%
NYJ	4.9%	17.7%	28.0%	26.4%	15.2%	7.8%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

LV passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Kirk Cousins QB	34 (25–44)	22 (16–30)	212 (127–307)	1.4	0.9

LV rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Ashton Jeanty RB	12 (7–18)	44 (14–94)	0.4
Mike Washington Jr. RB	5 (2–9)	22 (3–61)	0.2
Kirk Cousins QB	5 (2–8)	17 (2–50)	0.1
Dylan Laube RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–12)	0.0

LV receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Brock Bowers TE	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	43 (10–94)	0.3
Tre Tucker WR	5 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	30 (4–78)	0.2
Ashton Jeanty RB	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	25 (3–68)	0.2
Michael Mayer TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	21 (1–61)	0.2
Jalen Nailor WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–44)	0.1
Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–36)	0.1

NYJ passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Geno Smith QB	30 (22–39)	20 (14–28)	194 (114–285)	1.5	0.6

NYJ rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Braelon Allen RB	10 (6–15)	47 (15–98)	0.4
Breece Hall RB	10 (6–16)	40 (12–88)	0.4
Geno Smith QB	3 (1–6)	11 (0–38)	0.1
Isaiah Davis RB	1 (0–3)	2 (0–19)	0.1

NYJ receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Garrett Wilson WR	5 (3–9)	4 (1–7)	32 (5–79)	0.3
Omar Cooper Jr. WR	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	21 (0–64)	0.2
Adonai Mitchell WR	4 (2–7)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–58)	0.2
Mason Taylor TE	4 (1–6)	3 (1–5)	18 (0–55)	0.2
Kenyon Sadiq TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–45)	0.1
Braelon Allen RB	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–41)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Ashton Jeanty RB	LV	46.1%	11.4%	12.6%
Braelon Allen RB	NYJ	41.2%	8.4%	10.4%
Breece Hall RB	NYJ	39.5%	8.3%	10.9%
Brock Bowers TE	LV	24.8%	3.3%	5.6%
Garrett Wilson WR	NYJ	24.3%	2.8%	5.9%
Tre Tucker WR	LV	20.9%	2.3%	4.9%
Mike Washington Jr. RB	LV	18.9%	1.8%	4.3%
Adonai Mitchell WR	NYJ	18.8%	1.9%	4.9%
Mason Taylor TE	NYJ	17.0%	1.5%	4.2%
Omar Cooper Jr. WR	NYJ	14.7%	0.9%	3.3%
Michael Mayer TE	LV	14.7%	1.0%	3.1%
Kenyon Sadiq TE	NYJ	12.6%	0.6%	3.1%
Jalen Nailor WR	LV	11.7%	0.6%	2.7%
Kirk Cousins QB	LV	11.4%	0.5%	2.4%
Isaiah Davis RB	NYJ	10.0%	0.4%	2.5%
Tim Patrick WR	NYJ	9.2%	0.5%	2.0%

First touchdown by team: LV 43.8% · NYJ 55.7% · no offensive touchdown 0.5%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: LV 20 – 24 NYJ

By quarter: LV 10 / 7 / 0 / 3 · NYJ 3 / 0 / 7 / 14

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LV–NYJ)
1	LV	65	fg	10	48	3–0
1	NYJ	75	punt	6	30	3–0
1	LV	97	punt	3	4	3–0
1	NYJ	50	fg	5	26	3–3
1	LV	24	td	5	24	10–3
1	NYJ	73	punt	3	22	10–3
2	LV	70	punt	4	6	10–3
2	NYJ	81	punt	8	1	10–3
2	LV	67	td	3	67	17–3
2	NYJ	76	downs	10	75	17–3
2	LV	99	end half	4	20	17–3
2	NYJ	68	td	6	68	17–10
3	LV	76	punt	6	6	17–10
3	NYJ	29	turnover	7	0	17–10
3	LV	71	punt	3	16	17–10
3	NYJ	64	td	7	64	17–17
4	LV	69	fg	5	7	20–17
4	NYJ	73	punt	3	5	20–17
4	LV	73	punt	3	3	20–17
4	NYJ	64	td	10	64	20–24
4	LV	68	punt	6	17	20–24
4	NYJ	93	end half	2	41	20–24

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: LV 28 – 33 NYJ

By quarter: LV 0 / 16 / 6 / 6 · NYJ 13 / 6 / 7 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LV–NYJ)
1	NYJ	63	punt	3	-5	0–0
1	LV	58	punt	5	15	0–0
1	NYJ	99	td	7	99	0–7
1	LV	60	punt	3	9	0–7
1	NYJ	91	td	8	91	0–13
1	LV	69	fg	10	49	3–13
2	NYJ	73	fg	3	63	3–16
2	LV	65	td	10	65	10–16
2	NYJ	65	turnover	6	29	10–16
2	LV	65	punt	3	0	10–16
2	NYJ	95	fg	3	87	10–19
2	LV	65	td	9	65	16–19
2	LV	68	fg	11	25	19–19
3	NYJ	65	td	9	65	19–26
3	LV	65	fg	7	33	22–26
3	NYJ	75	punt	3	19	22–26
4	LV	90	fg	9	76	25–26
4	NYJ	65	punt	6	0	25–26
4	LV	75	fg	6	66	28–26
4	NYJ	65	td	9	65	28–33
4	LV	66	end half	4	31	28–33

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: LV 13 – 16 NYJ

By quarter: LV 0 / 7 / 3 / 3 · NYJ 3 / 10 / 0 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LV–NYJ)
1	NYJ	70	fg	7	19	0–3
1	LV	66	punt	6	4	0–3
1	NYJ	70	punt	3	4	0–3
1	LV	95	td	18	95	7–3
2	NYJ	74	punt	3	10	7–3
2	LV	66	punt	5	5	7–3
2	NYJ	87	punt	3	-5	7–3
2	LV	61	punt	3	0	7–3
2	NYJ	53	td	4	53	7–10
2	LV	39	turnover	1	31	7–10
2	NYJ	97	fg	7	56	7–13
2	LV	60	end half	3	-3	7–13
2	LV	80	punt	3	23	7–13
3	NYJ	72	punt	3	7	7–13
3	LV	81	punt	3	21	7–13
3	NYJ	83	punt	6	9	7–13
3	LV	65	fg	9	61	10–13
3	NYJ	75	punt	4	12	10–13
3	LV	86	downs	6	31	10–13
4	NYJ	45	fg	7	37	10–16
4	LV	70	punt	3	12	10–16
4	NYJ	81	punt	3	28	10–16
4	LV	85	fg	7	64	13–16
4	NYJ	63	end half	1	10	13–16

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 27, 8:18 PM ET · before kickoff Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	ea5ced22 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 44 / margin.median 4 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means NYJ 24.11 / LV 19.92
Availability	injuries as of Oct 27, 8:16 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 27, 8:16 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873029:74dbe96b75119a8b

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.