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NFL · IND @ JAX · Simulation

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation

IND 20 — 27 JAX · win chance IND 20.8% · JAX 76.5% · total 47

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

29.3%IND win in the simulated games

70.3%JAX win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.0%game goes to overtime

IND 20 – 27 JAXmedian score · averages 19.86 – 27.16

47median total · 80% of games 30–64

JAX by 7median margin · 80% range: IND by 10 to JAX by 25

41.0%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

7.4% · 6.4%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: JAX points minus IND points (below 0 means IND won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (7). Range shown -51 to 63.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (47). Range shown 0 to 108.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
IND	8	20	32	19.86
JAX	15	27	40	27.16

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	IND median (80%)	JAX median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	IND wins it	JAX wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–18)	32.5%	49.6%	17.9%
Q2	6 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–23)	32.5%	55.2%	12.3%
Q3	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–18)	31.1%	51.4%	17.5%
Q4	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–21)	32.5%	51.7%	15.8%
1st half	10 (3–20)	14 (6–24)	24 (13–36)	32.3%	61.3%	6.5%
2nd half	9 (0–17)	13 (3–21)	22 (10–35)	32.0%	60.4%	7.6%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	IND	JAX
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	61 (49–74)	64 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–42)
Completions	22 (16–30)	22 (16–29)
Passing yards	203 (120–299)	227 (140–323)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (16–33)	27 (19–37)
Rushing yards	111 (53–190)	127 (66–211)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
IND	9.2%	24.9%	30.9%	21.8%	9.6%	3.6%
JAX	2.7%	11.6%	24.0%	28.0%	20.3%	13.3%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

IND passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Daniel Jones QB	34 (25–44)	22 (16–30)	203 (120–299)	1.3	1.0

IND rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jonathan Taylor RB	12 (7–18)	54 (19–109)	0.4
Daniel Jones QB	5 (3–9)	22 (4–59)	0.1
Seth McGowan RB	3 (1–6)	10 (0–38)	0.1
DJ Giddens RB	2 (0–4)	6 (0–29)	0.1

IND receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Tyler Warren TE	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	30 (5–75)	0.2
Keenan Allen WR	5 (3–9)	4 (1–7)	28 (4–72)	0.2
Josh Downs WR	5 (2–9)	3 (1–6)	25 (2–67)	0.2
Jonathan Taylor RB	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–49)	0.1
Laquon Treadwell WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–47)	0.1
Will Mallory TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–44)	0.1

JAX passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Trevor Lawrence QB	30 (22–39)	20 (14–27)	205 (123–299)	1.7	0.5

JAX rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Bhayshul Tuten RB	12 (7–18)	53 (19–107)	0.5
Trevor Lawrence QB	6 (3–10)	26 (6–65)	0.2
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB	5 (3–9)	22 (4–59)	0.2
Ameer Abdullah RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–15)	0.0

JAX receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Parker Washington WR	8 (4–12)	5 (2–8)	47 (11–103)	0.4
Brenton Strange TE	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	37 (8–87)	0.3
Jakobi Meyers WR	5 (2–9)	3 (1–6)	32 (5–80)	0.3
Brian Thomas Jr. WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–52)	0.2
Bhayshul Tuten RB	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–44)	0.1
Josh Cameron WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–41)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Bhayshul Tuten RB	JAX	49.1%	13.3%	13.2%
Jonathan Taylor RB	IND	42.5%	9.9%	10.2%
Parker Washington WR	JAX	36.3%	6.7%	8.8%
Brenton Strange TE	JAX	29.5%	4.4%	6.5%
Jakobi Meyers WR	JAX	26.1%	3.4%	6.1%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB	JAX	23.2%	2.5%	5.1%
Tyler Warren TE	IND	21.1%	2.2%	4.7%
Keenan Allen WR	IND	19.9%	1.8%	4.1%
Josh Downs WR	IND	19.3%	1.7%	4.1%
Trevor Lawrence QB	JAX	18.4%	1.5%	4.2%
Brian Thomas Jr. WR	JAX	17.7%	1.5%	4.1%
Daniel Jones QB	IND	13.3%	0.9%	2.5%
Seth McGowan RB	IND	13.1%	0.7%	2.6%
Will Mallory TE	IND	11.8%	0.6%	2.4%
Josh Cameron WR	JAX	11.6%	0.7%	2.4%
Laquon Treadwell WR	IND	11.5%	0.7%	2.5%

First touchdown by team: IND 40.1% · JAX 59.7% · no offensive touchdown 0.2%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: IND 20 – 27 JAX

By quarter: IND 7 / 0 / 7 / 6 · JAX 10 / 10 / 0 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (IND–JAX)
1	JAX	65	fg	4	26	0–3
1	IND	62	td	4	62	7–3
1	JAX	69	td	10	69	7–10
1	IND	65	punt	3	26	7–10
1	JAX	97	punt	3	9	7–10
1	IND	56	punt	3	2	7–10
2	JAX	93	td	11	93	7–17
2	IND	60	turnover	1	17	7–17
2	JAX	81	punt	6	39	7–17
2	IND	99	downs	6	57	7–17
2	JAX	58	punt	5	2	7–17
2	IND	84	punt	3	9	7–17
2	JAX	64	fg	4	42	7–20
2	IND	56	end half	6	-1	7–20
2	IND	62	turnover	3	22	7–20
3	JAX	60	punt	3	9	7–20
3	IND	76	td	7	76	14–20
3	JAX	68	downs	5	48	14–20
3	IND	75	downs	4	37	14–20
3	JAX	61	punt	6	3	14–20
3	IND	67	turnover	3	29	14–20
4	JAX	63	punt	5	-4	14–20
4	IND	61	td	6	61	20–20
4	JAX	55	td	8	55	20–27
4	IND	68	punt	3	5	20–27
4	JAX	68	punt	6	26	20–27
4	IND	99	turnover	3	7	20–27
4	JAX	14	end half	2	11	20–27

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: IND 29 – 35 JAX

By quarter: IND 7 / 14 / 8 / 0 · JAX 7 / 6 / 14 / 8

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (IND–JAX)
1	IND	65	td	8	65	7–0
1	JAX	65	td	8	65	7–7
1	IND	68	punt	3	10	7–7
1	JAX	88	punt	6	17	7–7
1	IND	76	td	10	76	14–7
2	JAX	68	fg	7	61	14–10
2	IND	75	td	2	75	21–10
2	JAX	80	fg	9	69	21–13
2	IND	65	punt	5	0	21–13
2	JAX	88	end half	1	-1	21–13
2	JAX	75	td	14	75	21–20
3	IND	65	punt	3	10	21–20
3	JAX	97	turnover	3	40	21–20
3	IND	62	downs	5	15	21–20
3	JAX	53	td	3	53	21–27
3	IND	65	td	10	65	29–27
3	JAX	72	punt	5	6	29–27
4	IND	88	punt	3	7	29–27
4	JAX	67	td	11	67	29–35
4	IND	60	punt	5	7	29–35
4	JAX	92	end half	1	25	29–35

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: IND 12 – 19 JAX

By quarter: IND 3 / 3 / 6 / 0 · JAX 0 / 10 / 3 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (IND–JAX)
1	IND	65	fg	11	54	3–0
1	JAX	70	punt	8	2	3–0
1	IND	64	punt	10	3	3–0
2	JAX	84	td	5	84	3–7
2	IND	70	fg	4	36	6–7
2	JAX	87	punt	3	10	6–7
2	IND	75	punt	6	6	6–7
2	JAX	87	fg	7	54	6–10
2	IND	63	punt	3	-3	6–10
2	JAX	81	end half	3	-1	6–10
2	JAX	69	punt	3	8	6–10
3	IND	66	td	12	66	12–10
3	JAX	63	fg	10	48	12–13
3	IND	71	punt	3	15	12–13
4	JAX	77	punt	4	-2	12–13
4	IND	83	punt	6	4	12–13
4	JAX	50	fg miss	4	13	12–13
4	IND	55	punt	3	3	12–13
4	JAX	99	td	9	99	12–19

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 27, 12:51 PM ET · before kickoff Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	24dc4061 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 47 / margin.median 7 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means JAX 26.97 / IND 20.11
Availability	injuries as of Oct 27, 11:21 AM ET · rosters as of Oct 27, 11:21 AM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873028:a683905e7bd39d13

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.