Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page
Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.
This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.
Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation
CLE 17 — 23 PIT · win chance CLE 31.6% · PIT 65.5% · total 40
A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.
Game outcome · Simulation V2
Score distribution
Each team's score
| Team | Low (10th) | Median | High (90th) | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 6 | 17 | 29 | 16.99 |
| PIT | 10 | 23 | 35 | 22.9 |
Quarters and halves
From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.
| Period | CLE median (80%) | PIT median (80%) | Both teams (80%) | CLE wins it | PIT wins it | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 3 (0–10) | 3 (0–10) | 7 (3–17) | 33.2% | 47.0% | 19.9% |
| Q2 | 3 (0–11) | 7 (0–14) | 11 (3–21) | 33.5% | 52.2% | 14.3% |
| Q3 | 3 (0–9) | 3 (0–10) | 7 (0–17) | 31.2% | 48.6% | 20.2% |
| Q4 | 3 (0–10) | 7 (0–14) | 10 (3–20) | 32.1% | 49.7% | 18.2% |
| 1st half | 7 (0–17) | 10 (3–21) | 20 (10–31) | 34.8% | 57.9% | 7.3% |
| 2nd half | 7 (0–16) | 10 (3–20) | 19 (9–30) | 33.1% | 58.4% | 8.6% |
Team box · median (80% range)
| Stat | CLE | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Drives | 11 (9–13) | 11 (9–13) |
| Plays | 61 (49–74) | 63 (51–76) |
| Pass attempts | 34 (25–44) | 33 (24–42) |
| Completions | 22 (15–29) | 22 (15–29) |
| Passing yards | 187 (107–278) | 194 (115–285) |
| Passing TDs | 1 (0–2) | 1 (0–3) |
| Interceptions | 1 (0–3) | 1 (0–2) |
| Sacks taken | 2 (0–4) | 2 (0–4) |
| Rush attempts | 24 (16–33) | 27 (18–36) |
| Rushing yards | 102 (48–179) | 123 (62–206) |
| Rushing TDs | 0 (0–2) | 1 (0–2) |
| Field goals made | 1 (0–3) | 2 (0–3) |
Touchdowns per team
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 16.4% | 33.0% | 28.7% | 15.2% | 5.4% | 1.3% |
| PIT | 6.6% | 21.3% | 30.3% | 23.9% | 12.3% | 5.6% |
Players · median (80% range)
Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.
CLE passing
| Player | Attempts | Completions | Yards | TDs (avg) | INTs (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson QB | 34 (25–44) | 22 (15–29) | 187 (107–278) | 1.0 | 1.2 |
CLE rushing
| Player | Carries | Yards | Rush TDs (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins RB | 8 (5–13) | 31 (7–74) | 0.2 |
| Deshaun Watson QB | 6 (3–10) | 26 (5–65) | 0.1 |
| Audric Estime RB | 3 (1–6) | 9 (0–36) | 0.1 |
| Dylan Sampson RB | 2 (0–4) | 5 (0–27) | 0.1 |
CLE receiving
| Player | Targets | Catches | Yards | Rec TDs (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC Concepcion WR | 6 (3–9) | 4 (2–7) | 29 (4–72) | 0.2 |
| Denzel Boston WR | 5 (3–9) | 3 (1–6) | 25 (1–69) | 0.2 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. TE | 5 (2–9) | 3 (1–6) | 23 (2–64) | 0.2 |
| Jerry Jeudy WR | 4 (2–7) | 2 (1–5) | 16 (0–53) | 0.1 |
| Quinshon Judkins RB | 3 (1–5) | 2 (0–4) | 11 (0–41) | 0.1 |
| Isaiah Bond WR | 2 (1–5) | 1 (0–3) | 9 (0–41) | 0.1 |
PIT passing
| Player | Attempts | Completions | Yards | TDs (avg) | INTs (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers QB | 32 (23–41) | 21 (15–28) | 189 (111–279) | 1.4 | 0.8 |
PIT rushing
| Player | Carries | Yards | Rush TDs (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren RB | 14 (9–20) | 67 (26–129) | 0.5 |
| Rico Dowdle RB | 7 (3–11) | 24 (5–62) | 0.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers QB | 4 (2–7) | 14 (1–44) | 0.1 |
| Travis Homer RB | 1 (0–2) | 0 (0–11) | 0.0 |
PIT receiving
| Player | Targets | Catches | Yards | Rec TDs (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf WR | 7 (3–10) | 4 (2–7) | 33 (5–81) | 0.3 |
| Germie Bernard WR | 5 (3–9) | 4 (1–7) | 27 (4–71) | 0.3 |
| Jaylen Warren RB | 4 (2–7) | 3 (1–5) | 20 (0–60) | 0.2 |
| Pat Freiermuth TE | 4 (2–7) | 3 (1–5) | 18 (0–55) | 0.2 |
| Rico Dowdle RB | 4 (1–6) | 3 (1–5) | 17 (0–52) | 0.2 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. WR | 3 (1–6) | 2 (0–4) | 13 (0–47) | 0.1 |
Touchdown scorers
Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.
| Player | Team | Anytime TD | 2+ TDs | First TD of the game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren RB | PIT | 50.0% | 14.1% | 16.9% |
| Rico Dowdle RB | PIT | 33.4% | 5.4% | 10.0% |
| Quinshon Judkins RB | CLE | 27.9% | 3.8% | 7.8% |
| DK Metcalf WR | PIT | 27.0% | 4.1% | 7.7% |
| Germie Bernard WR | PIT | 22.8% | 2.5% | 6.2% |
| KC Concepcion WR | CLE | 18.5% | 1.6% | 5.0% |
| Pat Freiermuth TE | PIT | 16.9% | 1.2% | 4.8% |
| Denzel Boston WR | CLE | 16.5% | 1.3% | 4.3% |
| Harold Fannin Jr. TE | CLE | 15.0% | 1.0% | 3.9% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. WR | PIT | 13.3% | 0.8% | 3.9% |
| Deshaun Watson QB | CLE | 12.7% | 0.8% | 3.2% |
| Darnell Washington TE | PIT | 12.0% | 0.6% | 3.3% |
| Jerry Jeudy WR | CLE | 11.2% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| Dylan Sampson RB | CLE | 10.4% | 0.5% | 2.9% |
| Raheim Sanders RB | CLE | 8.7% | 0.4% | 2.1% |
| Audric Estime RB | CLE | 8.7% | 0.4% | 2.3% |
First touchdown by team: CLE 40.4% · PIT 58.6% · no offensive touchdown 1.0%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.
Representative simulated games
Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.
Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: CLE 16 – 23 PIT (OT)
By quarter: CLE 3 / 0 / 3 / 10 / OT 0 · PIT 0 / 6 / 3 / 7 / OT 7
| Qtr | Offense | Start (yds to goal) | Result | Plays | Yards | Score after (CLE–PIT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 66 | fg | 3 | 37 | 3–0 |
| 1 | PIT | 65 | turnover | 5 | 51 | 3–0 |
| 1 | CLE | 99 | punt | 3 | 5 | 3–0 |
| 1 | PIT | 43 | turnover | 5 | 22 | 3–0 |
| 1 | CLE | 75 | downs | 11 | 46 | 3–0 |
| 1 | PIT | 71 | fg | 8 | 62 | 3–3 |
| 2 | CLE | 64 | punt | 7 | 9 | 3–3 |
| 2 | PIT | 79 | punt | 5 | 24 | 3–3 |
| 2 | CLE | 93 | downs | 6 | 26 | 3–3 |
| 2 | PIT | 23 | fg | 3 | 1 | 3–6 |
| 2 | CLE | 75 | end half | 1 | 27 | 3–6 |
| 2 | PIT | 65 | fg | 6 | 63 | 3–9 |
| 3 | CLE | 66 | punt | 3 | 22 | 3–9 |
| 3 | PIT | 99 | punt | 3 | 7 | 3–9 |
| 3 | CLE | 39 | fg | 8 | 38 | 6–9 |
| 3 | PIT | 67 | punt | 3 | 3 | 6–9 |
| 3 | CLE | 72 | punt | 3 | 8 | 6–9 |
| 3 | PIT | 84 | punt | 3 | 5 | 6–9 |
| 4 | CLE | 54 | punt | 3 | 0 | 6–9 |
| 4 | PIT | 62 | punt | 5 | 6 | 6–9 |
| 4 | CLE | 88 | opp td | 2 | 15 | 6–16 |
| 4 | CLE | 73 | td | 4 | 73 | 13–16 |
| 4 | PIT | 75 | punt | 3 | 8 | 13–16 |
| 4 | CLE | 84 | fg | 8 | 83 | 16–16 |
| 4 | PIT | 65 | end half | 3 | -1 | 16–16 |
| OT | PIT | 74 | punt | 3 | 14 | 16–16 |
| OT | CLE | 83 | punt | 5 | 5 | 16–16 |
| OT | PIT | 68 | punt | 3 | 5 | 16–16 |
| OT | CLE | 80 | punt | 5 | 5 | 16–16 |
| OT | PIT | 77 | td | 12 | 77 | 16–23 |
Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: CLE 25 – 31 PIT
By quarter: CLE 7 / 6 / 3 / 9 · PIT 0 / 14 / 10 / 7
| Qtr | Offense | Start (yds to goal) | Result | Plays | Yards | Score after (CLE–PIT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 70 | punt | 3 | 8 | 0–0 |
| 1 | PIT | 99 | opp td | 2 | 5 | 7–0 |
| 1 | PIT | 74 | punt | 3 | 18 | 7–0 |
| 1 | CLE | 91 | punt | 5 | 13 | 7–0 |
| 1 | PIT | 65 | punt | 3 | 1 | 7–0 |
| 1 | CLE | 71 | punt | 4 | 8 | 7–0 |
| 1 | PIT | 86 | punt | 6 | 37 | 7–0 |
| 2 | CLE | 80 | opp td | 4 | 17 | 7–7 |
| 2 | CLE | 65 | fg | 8 | 54 | 10–7 |
| 2 | PIT | 64 | td | 7 | 64 | 10–14 |
| 2 | CLE | 65 | fg | 8 | 45 | 13–14 |
| 2 | PIT | 60 | fg | 5 | 43 | 13–17 |
| 3 | CLE | 71 | fg | 3 | 70 | 16–17 |
| 3 | PIT | 65 | td | 11 | 65 | 16–24 |
| 3 | CLE | 74 | downs | 9 | 46 | 16–24 |
| 4 | PIT | 80 | turnover | 3 | 0 | 16–24 |
| 4 | CLE | 28 | fg | 4 | 18 | 19–24 |
| 4 | PIT | 68 | td | 8 | 68 | 19–31 |
| 4 | CLE | 68 | td | 17 | 68 | 25–31 |
Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: CLE 9 – 15 PIT
By quarter: CLE 0 / 3 / 0 / 6 · PIT 3 / 6 / 6 / 0
| Qtr | Offense | Start (yds to goal) | Result | Plays | Yards | Score after (CLE–PIT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 76 | punt | 6 | 6 | 0–0 |
| 1 | PIT | 55 | fg | 10 | 25 | 0–3 |
| 1 | CLE | 49 | downs | 4 | 8 | 0–3 |
| 1 | PIT | 59 | turnover | 5 | -10 | 0–3 |
| 1 | CLE | 24 | fg | 12 | 7 | 3–3 |
| 2 | PIT | 77 | punt | 6 | 13 | 3–3 |
| 2 | CLE | 82 | punt | 4 | -3 | 3–3 |
| 2 | PIT | 64 | td | 7 | 64 | 3–9 |
| 2 | CLE | 76 | end half | 10 | 19 | 3–9 |
| 2 | PIT | 40 | fg | 14 | 0 | 3–12 |
| 3 | CLE | 65 | turnover | 1 | 4 | 3–12 |
| 3 | PIT | 25 | fg | 10 | 6 | 3–15 |
| 3 | CLE | 68 | fg | 11 | 37 | 6–15 |
| 4 | PIT | 71 | punt | 3 | 6 | 6–15 |
| 4 | CLE | 67 | punt | 4 | -1 | 6–15 |
| 4 | PIT | 81 | punt | 3 | 22 | 6–15 |
| 4 | CLE | 94 | turnover | 5 | 75 | 6–15 |
| 4 | PIT | 81 | punt | 3 | 1 | 6–15 |
| 4 | CLE | 68 | fg | 4 | 50 | 9–15 |
| 4 | PIT | 65 | end half | 3 | -1 | 9–15 |
Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.
Provenance
| Engine | nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow |
|---|---|
| Status | Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product |
| Runs | 10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000 |
| Generated | Oct 27, 8:18 PM ET · before kickoff Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET |
| Seed | 207e1240 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine|eventId|inputHash) |
| Team strength | forecast receipt total.median 40 / margin.median 6 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means PIT 23.06 / CLE 17.11 |
| Availability | injuries as of Oct 27, 8:16 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 27, 8:16 PM ET |
| Market | Not used as an input |
| Receipt | nfl-sim-v2:401873027:90debd72794be771 |
Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.