Today · Oct 30 · 10 events Latest results· Oct 29

NFL · BAL @ BUF · Simulation

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation

BAL 22 — 30 BUF · win chance BAL 26.6% · BUF 70.8% · total 52

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

29.9%BAL win in the simulated games

69.7%BUF win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.1%game goes to overtime

BAL 23 – 30 BUFmedian score · averages 22.54 – 29.47

51median total · 80% of games 35–70

BUF by 7median margin · 80% range: BAL by 10 to BUF by 24

42.7%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.0% · 6.1%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: BUF points minus BAL points (below 0 means BAL won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (7). Range shown -45 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (51). Range shown 8 to 108.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
BAL	10	23	35	22.54
BUF	17	30	42	29.47

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	BAL median (80%)	BUF median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	BAL wins it	BUF wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	32.2%	51.6%	16.2%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–16)	14 (7–24)	34.5%	54.1%	11.4%
Q3	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	32.5%	49.9%	17.5%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	34.1%	50.8%	15.1%
1st half	10 (3–21)	14 (6–24)	27 (16–39)	32.4%	61.9%	5.7%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	14 (6–24)	24 (13–38)	33.7%	58.8%	7.4%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	BAL	BUF
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (49–75)	64 (51–77)
Pass attempts	35 (26–45)	33 (25–43)
Completions	24 (17–32)	23 (17–31)
Passing yards	223 (135–320)	239 (151–337)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (1–4)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–1)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (17–33)	27 (19–37)
Rushing yards	114 (55–190)	138 (72–226)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–3)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
BAL	5.5%	18.6%	29.1%	25.4%	14.5%	6.9%
BUF	1.6%	7.9%	19.4%	27.7%	23.2%	20.2%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

BAL passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Lamar Jackson QB	35 (26–45)	24 (17–32)	223 (135–320)	1.6	0.8

BAL rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Derrick Henry RB	14 (9–20)	58 (22–115)	0.6
Lamar Jackson QB	7 (4–11)	35 (10–81)	0.2
Justice Hill RB	1 (0–3)	4 (0–26)	0.1
Rasheen Ali RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–11)	0.0

BAL receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Zay Flowers WR	9 (5–14)	6 (3–10)	63 (21–120)	0.4
Mark Andrews TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	23 (3–64)	0.2
Ja'Kobi Lane WR	4 (1–7)	2 (1–5)	17 (0–53)	0.2
Rashod Bateman WR	3 (1–6)	2 (1–4)	17 (0–54)	0.2
Justice Hill RB	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–41)	0.1
Josh Cuevas TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–42)	0.1

BUF passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Josh Allen QB	29 (22–39)	21 (15–28)	214 (133–309)	1.9	0.4

BUF rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
James Cook III RB	16 (10–22)	79 (35–147)	0.7
Josh Allen QB	7 (4–12)	34 (10–79)	0.3
Ray Davis RB	1 (0–3)	1 (0–16)	0.1
Ty Johnson RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–15)	0.1

BUF receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Khalil Shakir WR	5 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	35 (7–84)	0.4
Dalton Kincaid TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	32 (4–77)	0.3
DJ Moore WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	28 (3–74)	0.3
Keon Coleman WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	27 (2–72)	0.3
Ty Johnson RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	19 (0–59)	0.2
Joshua Palmer WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	11 (0–47)	0.2

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
James Cook III RB	BUF	61.0%	22.1%	16.4%
Derrick Henry RB	BAL	48.1%	12.9%	10.1%
Zay Flowers WR	BAL	35.9%	6.3%	7.3%
Khalil Shakir WR	BUF	30.4%	4.6%	6.4%
DJ Moore WR	BUF	28.8%	4.4%	6.1%
Dalton Kincaid TE	BUF	25.9%	3.5%	5.3%
Josh Allen QB	BUF	25.0%	3.2%	5.0%
Keon Coleman WR	BUF	24.0%	3.0%	5.0%
Ty Johnson RB	BUF	22.5%	2.7%	4.4%
Lamar Jackson QB	BAL	21.2%	2.3%	3.6%
Mark Andrews TE	BAL	20.1%	2.2%	3.7%
Justice Hill RB	BAL	17.0%	1.5%	2.8%
Joshua Palmer WR	BUF	16.1%	1.1%	3.1%
Ja'Kobi Lane WR	BAL	15.9%	1.4%	2.7%
Rashod Bateman WR	BAL	14.3%	1.2%	2.6%
Dawson Knox TE	BUF	13.1%	0.9%	2.5%

First touchdown by team: BAL 39.8% · BUF 60.1% · no offensive touchdown 0.2%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: BAL 22 – 29 BUF

By quarter: BAL 9 / 3 / 7 / 3 · BUF 7 / 9 / 6 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BAL–BUF)
1	BAL	65	td	6	65	6–0
1	BUF	72	td	4	72	6–7
1	BAL	74	punt	3	-3	6–7
1	BUF	67	turnover	3	36	6–7
1	BAL	69	fg	8	67	9–7
1	BUF	69	fg	7	22	9–10
2	BAL	69	turnover	6	0	9–10
2	BUF	20	td	7	20	9–16
2	BAL	69	punt	3	3	9–16
2	BUF	74	punt	3	-1	9–16
2	BAL	77	turnover	5	0	9–16
2	BUF	59	fg miss	8	11	9–16
2	BAL	44	fg	7	18	12–16
2	BUF	70	fg	5	54	12–19
3	BAL	70	fg miss	10	34	12–19
3	BUF	69	fg	3	51	12–22
3	BAL	68	td	4	68	19–22
3	BUF	73	punt	3	21	19–22
3	BAL	99	punt	5	45	19–22
3	BUF	79	td	8	79	19–29
4	BAL	72	fg	5	39	22–29
4	BUF	66	punt	5	31	22–29
4	BAL	99	punt	3	6	22–29
4	BUF	40	end half	1	-1	22–29

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: BAL 32 – 39 BUF

By quarter: BAL 15 / 7 / 3 / 7 · BUF 13 / 10 / 6 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BAL–BUF)
1	BAL	70	downs	9	26	0–0
1	BUF	61	td	8	61	0–6
1	BAL	69	td	3	69	7–6
1	BUF	65	td	5	65	7–13
1	BAL	65	td	5	65	15–13
1	BUF	49	punt	5	0	15–13
2	BAL	94	opp td	3	70	15–20
2	BAL	60	td	8	60	22–20
2	BUF	71	fg	8	67	22–23
2	BAL	35	fg miss	10	5	22–23
2	BUF	65	fg	7	54	22–26
3	BAL	73	punt	3	17	22–26
3	BUF	95	punt	3	14	22–26
3	BAL	59	fg	5	46	25–26
3	BUF	65	fg	9	45	25–29
3	BAL	65	punt	3	-16	25–29
3	BUF	72	fg	8	69	25–32
4	BAL	65	downs	4	15	25–32
4	BUF	50	td	7	50	25–39
4	BAL	74	td	5	74	32–39
4	BUF	44	end half	3	-3	32–39

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: BAL 14 – 21 BUF

By quarter: BAL 7 / 0 / 7 / 0 · BUF 7 / 7 / 0 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BAL–BUF)
1	BAL	70	td	4	70	7–0
1	BUF	77	punt	3	13	7–0
1	BAL	77	punt	3	0	7–0
1	BUF	52	td	12	52	7–7
1	BAL	84	punt	3	1	7–7
2	BUF	50	td	6	50	7–14
2	BAL	73	fg miss	12	44	7–14
2	BUF	51	punt	6	9	7–14
2	BAL	89	end half	1	-1	7–14
2	BUF	63	punt	3	9	7–14
3	BAL	75	td	9	75	14–14
3	BUF	81	punt	4	11	14–14
3	BAL	71	punt	3	42	14–14
3	BUF	99	punt	3	19	14–14
3	BAL	57	punt	5	3	14–14
3	BUF	70	punt	3	4	14–14
4	BAL	70	turnover	1	34	14–14
4	BUF	89	td	6	89	14–21
4	BAL	76	punt	5	7	14–21
4	BUF	72	fg miss	10	27	14–21
4	BAL	47	end half	12	-7	14–21

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 28, 8:39 PM ET · before kickoff Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	4f7bc358 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 52 / margin.median 7 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means BUF 29.56 / BAL 22.47
Availability	injuries as of Oct 28, 8:37 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 28, 8:37 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873026:7846013c05cc0f9f

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.