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NFL · ATL @ TB · Simulation

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation

ATL 22 — 24 TB · win chance ATL 45.7% · TB 51.3% · total 46

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

46.8%ATL win in the simulated games

52.7%TB win in the simulated games

0.5%tie after overtime

3.3%game goes to overtime

ATL 22 – 23 TBmedian score · averages 21.95 – 23.16

44median total · 80% of games 29–62

TB by 1median margin · 80% range: ATL by 16 to TB by 19

45.3%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.6% · 6.9%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: TB points minus ATL points (below 0 means ATL won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (1). Range shown -48 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (44). Range shown 4 to 104.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
ATL	10	22	34	21.95
TB	10	23	35	23.16

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	ATL median (80%)	TB median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	ATL wins it	TB wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	5 (0–10)	10 (3–17)	39.8%	41.3%	18.9%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	41.3%	45.0%	13.8%
Q3	3 (0–10)	6 (0–10)	10 (3–17)	39.2%	42.7%	18.1%
Q4	6 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	39.4%	43.8%	16.8%
1st half	10 (3–21)	10 (3–21)	23 (13–35)	44.7%	48.5%	6.8%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	10 (3–20)	21 (10–34)	43.1%	48.7%	8.2%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	ATL	TB
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	63 (50–76)
Pass attempts	33 (25–44)	33 (25–43)
Completions	23 (16–30)	22 (16–29)
Passing yards	207 (124–302)	205 (122–299)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–34)	26 (18–35)
Rushing yards	116 (56–196)	126 (63–209)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
ATL	7.0%	21.4%	30.1%	24.4%	11.8%	5.3%
TB	5.8%	18.9%	29.8%	24.8%	14.2%	6.5%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

ATL passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Michael Penix Jr. QB	33 (25–44)	23 (16–30)	207 (124–302)	1.5	0.8

ATL rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Bijan Robinson RB	14 (8–20)	65 (25–126)	0.5
Brian Robinson Jr. RB	5 (3–9)	19 (3–55)	0.2
Michael Penix Jr. QB	4 (2–7)	14 (1–44)	0.1
Khalil Herbert RB	1 (0–2)	1 (0–15)	0.0

ATL receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Drake London WR	9 (5–14)	6 (3–10)	58 (18–115)	0.4
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	24 (3–65)	0.2
Bijan Robinson RB	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	24 (3–64)	0.2
Jahan Dotson WR	4 (2–7)	2 (1–4)	18 (0–59)	0.2
Austin Hooper TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–34)	0.1
Zachariah Branch WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–33)	0.1

TB passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Baker Mayfield QB	33 (25–43)	22 (16–29)	205 (122–299)	1.6	0.8

TB rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Bucky Irving RB	12 (7–18)	54 (19–112)	0.4
Baker Mayfield QB	6 (3–10)	30 (7–71)	0.2
Kenny Gainwell RB	3 (1–6)	11 (0–39)	0.1
Sean Tucker RB	3 (1–5)	9 (0–36)	0.1

TB receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Chris Godwin Jr. WR	6 (3–10)	5 (2–8)	38 (8–87)	0.3
Emeka Egbuka WR	8 (4–12)	4 (2–8)	38 (8–86)	0.4
Cade Otton TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	20 (0–60)	0.2
Ted Hurst III WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	16 (0–54)	0.2
Bucky Irving RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	14 (0–48)	0.1
Tez Johnson WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–47)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Bijan Robinson RB	ATL	51.3%	14.6%	14.4%
Bucky Irving RB	TB	46.0%	11.8%	12.4%
Drake London WR	ATL	33.5%	6.0%	8.4%
Emeka Egbuka WR	TB	31.5%	4.8%	7.8%
Chris Godwin Jr. WR	TB	27.7%	3.8%	6.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. RB	ATL	21.9%	2.4%	5.2%
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE	ATL	19.1%	1.8%	4.2%
Kenny Gainwell RB	TB	18.8%	1.8%	4.2%
Cade Otton TE	TB	18.2%	1.4%	4.3%
Baker Mayfield QB	TB	17.3%	1.5%	4.0%
Jahan Dotson WR	ATL	16.1%	1.3%	3.5%
Ted Hurst III WR	TB	15.9%	1.2%	4.1%
Tez Johnson WR	TB	12.8%	0.8%	2.6%
Sean Tucker RB	TB	10.1%	0.4%	1.9%
Michael Penix Jr. QB	ATL	9.7%	0.4%	2.0%
Zachariah Branch WR	ATL	9.4%	0.3%	2.0%

First touchdown by team: ATL 48.1% · TB 51.5% · no offensive touchdown 0.4%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: ATL 21 – 22 TB

By quarter: ATL 0 / 7 / 7 / 7 · TB 6 / 6 / 0 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (ATL–TB)
1	TB	69	turnover	3	32	0–0
1	ATL	68	fg miss	4	38	0–0
1	TB	72	punt	3	0	0–0
1	ATL	67	punt	3	3	0–0
1	TB	80	punt	3	2	0–0
1	ATL	82	punt	3	3	0–0
1	TB	63	td	10	63	0–6
1	ATL	70	td	8	70	7–6
2	TB	65	fg	10	14	7–9
2	ATL	65	punt	3	34	7–9
2	TB	99	fg	15	31	7–12
2	ATL	59	td	9	59	14–12
3	TB	65	punt	8	6	14–12
3	ATL	76	punt	5	8	14–12
3	TB	78	punt	3	-1	14–12
3	ATL	56	td	5	56	21–12
4	TB	60	turnover	5	53	21–12
4	ATL	86	punt	3	11	21–12
4	TB	63	punt	3	11	21–12
4	ATL	84	punt	3	8	21–12
4	TB	60	fg	8	14	21–15
4	ATL	67	punt	3	0	21–15
4	TB	72	td	1	72	21–22
4	ATL	66	fg miss	12	41	21–22
4	TB	67	end half	3	-2	21–22

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: ATL 30 – 31 TB

By quarter: ATL 3 / 20 / 7 / 0 · TB 7 / 0 / 14 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (ATL–TB)
1	ATL	69	turnover	8	0	0–0
1	TB	41	downs	4	-2	0–0
1	ATL	38	fg	11	18	3–0
1	TB	72	td	14	72	3–7
1	ATL	65	fg	12	26	6–7
2	TB	78	turnover	2	-1	6–7
2	ATL	24	td	13	24	13–7
2	TB	68	turnover	3	16	13–7
2	ATL	29	td	2	29	20–7
2	TB	72	downs	4	43	20–7
2	ATL	70	fg	7	34	23–7
2	TB	69	td	5	69	23–14
3	ATL	68	punt	3	9	23–14
3	TB	78	punt	4	9	23–14
3	ATL	70	punt	3	7	23–14
3	TB	80	td	10	80	23–21
3	ATL	74	td	9	74	30–21
3	TB	65	fg	10	34	30–24
4	ATL	74	punt	3	5	30–24
4	TB	76	td	8	76	30–31
4	ATL	72	punt	3	20	30–31
4	TB	81	punt	3	32	30–31
4	ATL	99	end half	8	12	30–31

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: ATL 14 – 15 TB

By quarter: ATL 0 / 7 / 0 / 7 · TB 15 / 0 / 0 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (ATL–TB)
1	TB	60	td	8	60	0–7
1	ATL	74	punt	3	14	0–7
1	TB	84	td	8	84	0–15
1	ATL	65	punt	3	5	0–15
1	TB	91	punt	6	25	0–15
1	ATL	73	downs	5	56	0–15
2	TB	78	punt	5	-4	0–15
2	ATL	48	punt	10	5	0–15
2	TB	95	punt	3	25	0–15
2	ATL	55	td	10	55	7–15
2	TB	66	end half	3	-1	7–15
2	ATL	65	punt	3	4	7–15
3	TB	83	punt	3	25	7–15
3	ATL	76	punt	12	7	7–15
3	TB	69	punt	5	6	7–15
3	ATL	91	punt	8	52	7–15
3	TB	88	punt	3	31	7–15
4	ATL	82	punt	6	29	7–15
4	TB	91	punt	3	8	7–15
4	ATL	61	td	10	61	14–15
4	TB	84	end half	1	21	14–15

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 27, 8:18 PM ET · before kickoff Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	779dc265 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 45 / margin.median 1 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means TB 23.03 / ATL 21.85
Availability	injuries as of Oct 27, 8:16 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 27, 8:16 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873025:1d5e7830c727744b

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.