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NFL · ARI @ DAL · Simulation

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation

ARI 24 — 31 DAL · win chance ARI 31.7% · DAL 65.5% · total 55

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

32.2%ARI win in the simulated games

67.5%DAL win in the simulated games

0.3%tie after overtime

3.0%game goes to overtime

ARI 24 – 30 DALmedian score · averages 23.9 – 30.21

54median total · 80% of games 37–72

DAL by 6median margin · 80% range: ARI by 11 to DAL by 24

43.1%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.1% · 6.2%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: DAL points minus ARI points (below 0 means ARI won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (6). Range shown -48 to 60.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (54). Range shown 8 to 116.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
ARI	12	24	37	23.9
DAL	17	30	43	30.21

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	ARI median (80%)	DAL median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	ARI wins it	DAL wins it	Level
Q1	6 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	34.2%	49.3%	16.5%
Q2	7 (0–14)	8 (3–16)	16 (7–25)	34.0%	53.9%	12.1%
Q3	6 (0–11)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	34.0%	49.8%	16.2%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	34.2%	50.9%	14.8%
1st half	13 (3–21)	15 (7–24)	27 (16–40)	34.4%	59.7%	6.0%
2nd half	10 (3–21)	14 (6–24)	26 (14–39)	34.2%	58.1%	7.7%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	ARI	DAL
Drives	11 (9–13)	10 (9–12)
Plays	62 (49–75)	64 (52–77)
Pass attempts	35 (26–44)	33 (25–43)
Completions	24 (17–31)	22 (16–30)
Passing yards	231 (141–329)	245 (157–344)
Passing TDs	2 (0–3)	2 (1–4)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–1)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (17–33)	27 (19–37)
Rushing yards	117 (57–198)	139 (73–224)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–3)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
ARI	4.2%	16.3%	26.5%	27.1%	16.6%	9.3%
DAL	1.2%	6.8%	17.4%	26.8%	25.2%	22.6%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

ARI passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jacoby Brissett QB	31 (23–40)	21 (15–28)	207 (123–300)	1.5	0.7

ARI rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jeremiyah Love RB	8 (4–13)	35 (9–82)	0.4
Bam Knight RB	4 (1–6)	16 (1–51)	0.2
Tyler Allgeier RB	4 (2–8)	15 (2–48)	0.2
Jacoby Brissett QB	4 (1–6)	15 (1–46)	0.1

ARI receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Trey McBride TE	8 (5–13)	6 (3–10)	52 (16–107)	0.4
Michael Wilson WR	7 (4–11)	4 (2–7)	38 (7–90)	0.3
Kendrick Bourne WR	4 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	25 (2–68)	0.2
Trey Benson RB	2 (1–4)	2 (0–3)	10 (0–43)	0.1
Reggie Virgil WR	2 (1–4)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–42)	0.1
Elijah Higgins TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–39)	0.1

DAL passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Dak Prescott QB	30 (22–39)	20 (14–27)	220 (136–314)	2.0	0.4

DAL rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Javonte Williams RB	15 (9–21)	74 (31–137)	0.7
Malik Davis RB	4 (1–7)	15 (1–48)	0.2
Dak Prescott QB	3 (1–6)	15 (1–45)	0.1
Tyler Goodson RB	4 (1–7)	13 (1–43)	0.2

DAL receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
CeeDee Lamb WR	9 (5–14)	6 (3–10)	66 (22–127)	0.6
George Pickens WR	7 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	47 (12–102)	0.5
Ryan Flournoy WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	28 (3–73)	0.3
Jake Ferguson TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–47)	0.2
Javonte Williams RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–38)	0.1
Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)	5 (0–34)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Javonte Williams RB	DAL	60.3%	21.4%	15.0%
CeeDee Lamb WR	DAL	47.9%	13.0%	10.5%
Jeremiyah Love RB	ARI	37.4%	7.3%	7.3%
George Pickens WR	DAL	36.9%	7.0%	7.3%
Trey McBride TE	ARI	34.6%	6.1%	6.7%
Michael Wilson WR	ARI	30.3%	4.6%	5.3%
Ryan Flournoy WR	DAL	25.7%	3.3%	4.9%
Tyler Allgeier RB	ARI	25.2%	3.2%	4.4%
Trey Benson RB	ARI	23.2%	2.7%	4.5%
Bam Knight RB	ARI	21.5%	2.3%	3.9%
Kendrick Bourne WR	ARI	21.2%	2.1%	3.7%
Tyler Goodson RB	DAL	20.2%	2.0%	3.7%
Malik Davis RB	DAL	19.9%	2.1%	3.7%
Jake Ferguson TE	DAL	16.8%	1.3%	3.1%
Reggie Virgil WR	ARI	11.0%	0.6%	1.8%
Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	DAL	10.3%	0.4%	1.6%

First touchdown by team: ARI 42.3% · DAL 57.7% · no offensive touchdown 0.1%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: ARI 24 – 30 DAL

By quarter: ARI 14 / 10 / 0 / 0 · DAL 0 / 10 / 6 / 14

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (ARI–DAL)
1	ARI	80	td	12	80	7–0
1	DAL	78	turnover	2	31	7–0
1	ARI	39	td	4	39	14–0
1	DAL	82	turnover	1	81	14–0
1	ARI	99	turnover	9	84	14–0
1	DAL	73	fg	5	60	14–3
2	ARI	74	fg	10	54	17–3
2	DAL	76	td	8	76	17–10
2	ARI	65	turnover	3	46	17–10
2	DAL	86	punt	5	1	17–10
2	ARI	56	td	10	56	24–10
2	DAL	74	fg	10	45	24–13
3	ARI	65	punt	5	-4	24–13
3	DAL	82	fg	8	77	24–16
3	ARI	58	punt	3	5	24–16
3	DAL	73	td	13	73	24–23
4	ARI	71	punt	5	-5	24–23
4	DAL	69	td	12	69	24–30
4	ARI	67	punt	6	-1	24–30
4	DAL	77	end half	3	10	24–30

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: ARI 33 – 39 DAL (OT)

By quarter: ARI 10 / 14 / 6 / 3 / OT 0 · DAL 10 / 6 / 7 / 10 / OT 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (ARI–DAL)
1	DAL	60	punt	3	9	0–0
1	ARI	82	fg	9	40	3–0
1	DAL	58	fg	10	44	3–3
1	ARI	65	td	1	65	10–3
1	DAL	77	td	5	77	10–10
1	ARI	78	punt	3	7	10–10
1	DAL	62	turnover	7	22	10–10
2	ARI	49	fg miss	5	7	10–10
2	DAL	64	td	4	64	10–16
2	ARI	72	fg	3	62	13–16
2	DAL	75	punt	3	5	13–16
2	ARI	39	fg	13	16	16–16
2	DAL	74	turnover	6	12	16–16
2	ARI	27	td	9	27	24–16
2	ARI	72	fg	11	51	27–16
3	DAL	50	td	6	50	27–23
3	ARI	79	fg	9	54	30–23
3	DAL	71	fg	13	61	30–26
4	ARI	80	fg	10	47	33–26
4	DAL	72	td	9	72	33–33
OT	DAL	74	td	8	74	33–39
OT	ARI	67	downs	4	33	33–39

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: ARI 16 – 21 DAL

By quarter: ARI 6 / 0 / 3 / 7 · DAL 0 / 11 / 7 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (ARI–DAL)
1	ARI	70	punt	11	-8	0–0
1	DAL	51	punt	3	15	0–0
1	ARI	99	td	13	99	6–0
1	DAL	76	fg	9	69	6–3
2	ARI	76	punt	3	7	6–3
2	DAL	73	downs	12	49	6–3
2	ARI	76	punt	8	4	6–3
2	DAL	74	td	8	74	6–11
2	DAL	65	td	7	65	6–18
3	ARI	57	downs	11	52	6–18
3	DAL	95	punt	3	2	6–18
3	ARI	48	fg	9	17	9–18
3	DAL	11	fg	5	10	9–21
4	ARI	47	td	13	47	16–21
4	DAL	88	turnover	3	34	16–21
4	ARI	58	punt	3	14	16–21
4	DAL	99	end half	2	4	16–21

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 28, 8:39 PM ET · before kickoff Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	348e3bf4 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 54 / margin.median 6 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means DAL 29.95 / ARI 24.09
Availability	injuries as of Oct 28, 8:37 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 28, 8:37 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873024:098d6f50065dc6f4

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.