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NFL · WSH @ SF · Simulation

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

WSH 20 — 30 SF · win chance WSH 17.0% · SF 80.5% · total 50

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

26.1%WSH win in the simulated games

73.6%SF win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.1%game goes to overtime

WSH 20 – 29 SFmedian score · averages 20.8 – 29.32

50median total · 80% of games 33–67

SF by 8median margin · 80% range: WSH by 9 to SF by 26

39.7%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

7.7% · 5.5%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: SF points minus WSH points (below 0 means WSH won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (8). Range shown -45 to 63.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (50). Range shown 8 to 112.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
WSH	9	20	33	20.8
SF	17	29	42	29.32

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	WSH median (80%)	SF median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	WSH wins it	SF wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	32.0%	52.3%	15.6%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–16)	14 (6–24)	30.9%	56.8%	12.2%
Q3	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	30.6%	52.0%	17.5%
Q4	6 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–23)	31.3%	53.1%	15.6%
1st half	10 (3–20)	14 (6–24)	25 (14–38)	29.9%	64.0%	6.0%
2nd half	10 (0–19)	14 (6–23)	24 (13–37)	30.1%	62.2%	7.8%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	WSH	SF
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	61 (48–74)	64 (51–77)
Pass attempts	34 (25–45)	33 (24–42)
Completions	22 (16–30)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	205 (122–299)	238 (152–338)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (1–4)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–1)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	23 (16–32)	27 (19–37)
Rushing yards	118 (58–200)	135 (68–220)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–3)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
WSH	7.1%	22.9%	30.0%	23.4%	12.0%	4.6%
SF	1.5%	8.1%	19.7%	28.0%	23.9%	18.9%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

WSH passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jayden Daniels QB	34 (25–45)	22 (16–30)	205 (122–299)	1.4	0.9

WSH rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jayden Daniels QB	11 (7–16)	61 (22–119)	0.3
Rachaad White RB	6 (3–10)	23 (4–60)	0.2
Austin Ekeler RB	4 (2–7)	15 (1–47)	0.2
Craig Reynolds RB	2 (0–4)	4 (0–24)	0.1

WSH receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Terry McLaurin WR	6 (3–10)	4 (1–7)	33 (5–81)	0.3
Stefon Diggs WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	30 (5–75)	0.3
Chig Okonkwo TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	20 (0–60)	0.2
Antonio Williams WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	19 (0–57)	0.2
Treylon Burks WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–46)	0.1
Dyami Brown WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–40)	0.1

SF passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Brock Purdy QB	33 (24–42)	23 (16–30)	238 (152–338)	2.1	0.5

SF rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Christian McCaffrey RB	11 (7–17)	53 (19–108)	0.5
Brock Purdy QB	8 (4–12)	36 (10–80)	0.3
Kaelon Black RB	6 (3–10)	22 (4–60)	0.3
Jordan James RB	2 (0–4)	4 (0–24)	0.1

SF receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Mike Evans WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–8)	45 (11–98)	0.4
George Kittle TE	5 (2–9)	4 (2–7)	36 (7–86)	0.3
Christian McCaffrey RB	4 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	26 (3–68)	0.3
Ricky Pearsall WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	19 (0–59)	0.2
Jake Tonges TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–51)	0.2
Brandon Aiyuk WR	2 (1–4)	1 (0–3)	11 (0–44)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Christian McCaffrey RB	SF	58.0%	19.6%	15.0%
Mike Evans WR	SF	35.0%	6.3%	8.1%
George Kittle TE	SF	29.8%	4.3%	6.5%
Jayden Daniels QB	WSH	29.5%	4.4%	5.6%
Rachaad White RB	WSH	27.6%	3.8%	5.8%
Brock Purdy QB	SF	26.0%	3.2%	5.7%
Kaelon Black RB	SF	25.8%	3.5%	5.3%
Stefon Diggs WR	WSH	23.1%	2.6%	4.4%
Terry McLaurin WR	WSH	22.8%	2.4%	3.9%
Austin Ekeler RB	WSH	21.5%	2.1%	4.0%
Ricky Pearsall WR	SF	19.9%	1.6%	4.1%
Jake Tonges TE	SF	16.6%	1.5%	3.4%
Chig Okonkwo TE	WSH	16.5%	1.3%	3.2%
Antonio Williams WR	WSH	15.3%	1.2%	3.0%
Brandon Aiyuk WR	SF	14.1%	1.0%	2.6%
Treylon Burks WR	WSH	12.3%	0.8%	2.3%

First touchdown by team: WSH 38.7% · SF 61.2% · no offensive touchdown 0.1%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: WSH 21 – 29 SF

By quarter: WSH 0 / 7 / 14 / 0 · SF 13 / 7 / 3 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (WSH–SF)
1	SF	70	fg	11	28	0–3
1	WSH	68	punt	4	-1	0–3
1	SF	73	td	6	73	0–10
1	WSH	75	punt	6	21	0–10
1	SF	94	fg	6	81	0–13
1	WSH	41	downs	14	6	0–13
2	SF	75	td	10	75	0–20
2	WSH	70	td	9	70	7–20
2	SF	76	end half	3	59	7–20
2	WSH	67	downs	4	64	7–20
3	SF	97	fg	7	66	7–23
3	WSH	51	td	6	51	14–23
3	SF	69	turnover	1	39	14–23
3	WSH	73	td	8	73	21–23
3	SF	41	fg	12	35	21–26
4	WSH	67	punt	7	14	21–26
4	SF	84	fg	7	59	21–29
4	WSH	60	downs	7	44	21–29
4	SF	88	end half	1	61	21–29

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: WSH 29 – 37 SF

By quarter: WSH 0 / 14 / 0 / 15 · SF 17 / 10 / 10 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (WSH–SF)
1	SF	77	td	3	77	0–7
1	WSH	67	turnover	6	0	0–7
1	SF	18	td	5	18	0–14
1	WSH	91	punt	3	15	0–14
1	SF	79	fg	7	65	0–17
1	WSH	65	turnover	1	35	0–17
1	SF	70	punt	7	7	0–17
1	WSH	76	td	6	76	7–17
2	SF	65	punt	3	2	7–17
2	WSH	81	punt	3	20	7–17
2	SF	60	fg	7	30	7–20
2	WSH	80	punt	5	19	7–20
2	SF	74	opp td	5	4	14–20
2	SF	68	td	6	68	14–27
2	WSH	65	punt	3	2	14–27
3	SF	87	td	6	87	14–34
3	WSH	67	punt	4	12	14–34
3	SF	91	punt	3	19	14–34
3	WSH	71	punt	3	7	14–34
3	SF	75	fg	11	46	14–37
3	WSH	65	td	9	65	21–37
4	SF	77	turnover	5	13	21–37
4	WSH	36	fg miss	7	32	21–37
4	SF	88	punt	4	9	21–37
4	WSH	67	td	19	67	29–37

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: WSH 13 – 20 SF

By quarter: WSH 0 / 7 / 3 / 3 · SF 7 / 3 / 0 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (WSH–SF)
1	SF	67	td	15	67	0–7
1	WSH	65	punt	10	6	0–7
1	SF	70	fg	11	69	0–10
2	WSH	69	td	9	69	7–10
2	SF	65	punt	3	5	7–10
2	WSH	89	punt	7	2	7–10
2	SF	78	punt	3	0	7–10
2	WSH	47	end half	2	-1	7–10
2	WSH	69	punt	8	20	7–10
3	SF	93	punt	3	75	7–10
3	WSH	99	fg	3	83	10–10
3	SF	61	punt	4	3	10–10
3	WSH	94	turnover	2	35	10–10
3	SF	25	td	14	25	10–17
4	WSH	68	fg	8	36	13–17
4	SF	69	fg	6	40	13–20
4	WSH	74	turnover	5	72	13–20
4	SF	99	end half	2	0	13–20

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-17 17:31 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-20 00:15 UTC
Seed	59520a64 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 50 / margin.median 9 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means SF 29.65 / WSH 20.52
Availability	injuries@2026-10-17T17:29:14Z+rosters@2026-10-17T17:29:14Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873008:6da012510c023181

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.