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NFL · DAL @ GB · Simulation

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

DAL 23 — 29 GB · win chance DAL 33.6% · GB 63.8% · total 52

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

35.9%DAL win in the simulated games

63.6%GB win in the simulated games

0.5%tie after overtime

3.6%game goes to overtime

DAL 23 – 28 GBmedian score · averages 23.72 – 28.32

51median total · 80% of games 35–70

GB by 4median margin · 80% range: DAL by 13 to GB by 22

45.3%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

9.2% · 6.5%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: GB points minus DAL points (below 0 means DAL won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (4). Range shown -51 to 63.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (51). Range shown 4 to 116.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
DAL	12	23	36	23.72
GB	16	28	41	28.32

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	DAL median (80%)	GB median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	DAL wins it	GB wins it	Level
Q1	6 (0–12)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	35.6%	48.0%	16.3%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–15)	14 (6–24)	37.1%	50.2%	12.7%
Q3	6 (0–11)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	36.0%	47.9%	16.0%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	36.9%	48.0%	15.2%
1st half	12 (3–21)	14 (6–24)	26 (16–39)	37.9%	56.0%	6.1%
2nd half	10 (3–21)	14 (6–23)	24 (13–38)	37.5%	54.9%	7.6%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	DAL	GB
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (26–44)	33 (25–43)
Completions	23 (17–31)	22 (16–30)
Passing yards	228 (140–329)	246 (154–346)
Passing TDs	2 (0–3)	2 (1–4)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–1)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (17–33)	27 (19–36)
Rushing yards	114 (55–195)	125 (63–208)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
DAL	4.6%	16.2%	28.4%	25.7%	16.4%	8.8%
GB	2.0%	8.8%	21.8%	27.8%	22.1%	17.4%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

DAL passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Dak Prescott QB	30 (22–39)	21 (14–28)	200 (119–297)	1.5	0.7

DAL rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Javonte Williams RB	12 (7–18)	52 (18–108)	0.5
Dak Prescott QB	3 (1–6)	12 (0–40)	0.1
Malik Davis RB	3 (1–6)	11 (0–40)	0.1
Tyler Goodson RB	2 (1–5)	7 (0–31)	0.1

DAL receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
CeeDee Lamb WR	8 (4–12)	6 (3–9)	54 (16–110)	0.4
George Pickens WR	7 (3–11)	4 (2–8)	43 (10–95)	0.3
Ryan Flournoy WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	23 (1–65)	0.2
Jake Ferguson TE	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	16 (0–51)	0.2
Javonte Williams RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–45)	0.1
Jonathan Mingo WR	2 (0–3)	1 (0–2)	3 (0–31)	0.1

GB passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jordan Love QB	29 (21–38)	20 (14–27)	217 (132–314)	1.8	0.5

GB rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
MarShawn Lloyd RB	10 (6–15)	38 (12–87)	0.5
Kaleb Johnson RB	7 (4–12)	33 (8–78)	0.3
Jordan Love QB	3 (1–6)	13 (1–43)	0.1
Pierre Strong Jr. RB	3 (1–6)	12 (0–43)	0.2

GB receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Christian Watson WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	45 (9–99)	0.4
Matthew Golden WR	6 (3–10)	4 (1–7)	40 (8–92)	0.4
Tucker Kraft TE	4 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	29 (3–73)	0.3
Jayden Reed WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–52)	0.2
Pierre Strong Jr. RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–48)	0.2
Luke Musgrave TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	10 (0–43)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Javonte Williams RB	DAL	50.1%	13.8%	11.1%
MarShawn Lloyd RB	GB	45.6%	11.5%	9.9%
CeeDee Lamb WR	DAL	33.5%	5.8%	6.9%
Matthew Golden WR	GB	32.1%	5.0%	6.7%
Christian Watson WR	GB	31.6%	4.9%	6.9%
Kaleb Johnson RB	GB	31.3%	5.0%	6.3%
George Pickens WR	DAL	29.1%	4.0%	5.2%
Pierre Strong Jr. RB	GB	28.9%	4.3%	5.7%
Tucker Kraft TE	GB	25.4%	3.4%	5.2%
Ryan Flournoy WR	DAL	19.3%	1.6%	3.7%
Jayden Reed WR	GB	18.0%	1.7%	3.4%
Jake Ferguson TE	DAL	15.9%	1.1%	2.9%
Malik Davis RB	DAL	15.4%	1.1%	3.0%
Luke Musgrave TE	GB	12.6%	0.7%	2.2%
Tyler Goodson RB	DAL	12.0%	0.7%	2.1%
Bo Melton WR	GB	9.3%	0.4%	1.7%

First touchdown by team: DAL 44.0% · GB 55.9% · no offensive touchdown 0.1%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: DAL 24 – 27 GB

By quarter: DAL 7 / 7 / 0 / 10 · GB 3 / 21 / 0 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DAL–GB)
1	GB	76	fg	5	52	0–3
1	DAL	70	td	6	70	7–3
1	GB	65	punt	8	3	7–3
1	DAL	81	td	8	81	14–3
2	GB	72	td	6	72	14–10
2	DAL	75	punt	3	-1	14–10
2	GB	54	td	4	54	14–17
2	DAL	65	downs	4	54	14–17
2	GB	89	td	8	89	14–24
2	DAL	81	end half	1	73	14–24
2	DAL	68	turnover	3	24	14–24
3	GB	86	punt	3	14	14–24
3	DAL	55	turnover	8	16	14–24
3	GB	69	punt	4	12	14–24
3	DAL	81	punt	3	36	14–24
3	GB	99	punt	3	22	14–24
3	DAL	64	fg	11	63	17–24
4	GB	83	fg	5	68	17–27
4	DAL	65	punt	3	-5	17–27
4	GB	59	punt	3	2	17–27
4	DAL	81	td	5	81	24–27
4	GB	72	punt	6	11	24–27
4	DAL	78	fg miss	5	59	24–27
4	GB	78	end half	3	-1	24–27

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: DAL 33 – 37 GB (OT)

By quarter: DAL 7 / 3 / 7 / 13 / OT 3 · GB 10 / 7 / 10 / 3 / OT 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DAL–GB)
1	GB	65	punt	4	8	0–0
1	DAL	74	turnover	8	6	0–0
1	GB	30	fg	12	19	0–3
1	DAL	61	td	4	61	7–3
1	GB	77	td	3	77	7–10
1	DAL	75	punt	5	34	7–10
2	GB	99	punt	5	8	7–10
2	DAL	14	downs	11	13	7–10
2	GB	89	td	4	89	7–17
2	DAL	78	punt	3	29	7–17
2	GB	97	punt	5	21	7–17
2	DAL	69	fg	10	59	10–17
2	DAL	71	turnover	3	61	10–17
3	GB	84	td	1	84	10–24
3	DAL	72	turnover	3	51	10–24
3	GB	96	punt	6	1	10–24
3	DAL	34	td	8	34	17–24
3	GB	70	fg	3	45	17–27
3	DAL	70	fg	17	29	20–27
4	GB	82	fg	10	75	20–30
4	DAL	39	td	4	39	27–30
4	GB	74	punt	5	6	27–30
4	DAL	85	fg	4	84	30–30
4	GB	86	end half	8	-1	30–30
OT	GB	65	td	5	65	30–37
OT	DAL	78	fg	6	46	33–37

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: DAL 16 – 19 GB

By quarter: DAL 7 / 3 / 3 / 3 · GB 3 / 6 / 0 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DAL–GB)
1	GB	72	fg	7	52	0–3
1	DAL	61	punt	4	8	0–3
1	GB	80	punt	6	28	0–3
1	DAL	74	td	3	74	7–3
1	GB	44	td	14	44	7–9
2	DAL	65	punt	5	22	7–9
2	GB	99	punt	3	1	7–9
2	DAL	33	fg	9	14	10–9
2	GB	65	punt	3	16	10–9
2	DAL	79	turnover	5	3	10–9
2	GB	43	punt	4	1	10–9
2	DAL	90	end half	3	73	10–9
2	DAL	60	punt	3	7	10–9
3	GB	99	punt	5	5	10–9
3	DAL	30	fg	8	7	13–9
3	GB	60	downs	16	16	13–9
4	DAL	55	fg	8	42	16–9
4	GB	70	td	7	70	16–16
4	DAL	72	punt	3	3	16–16
4	GB	80	fg	11	61	16–19

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-16 23:18 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-19 00:20 UTC
Seed	6bf53c6b · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 52 / margin.median 5 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means GB 28.59 / DAL 23.44
Availability	injuries@2026-10-16T23:16:21Z+rosters@2026-10-16T23:16:21Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873007:5943a3ff11cda691

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.