Today · Oct 17 · 19 events Games under way Settled· Oct 15

NFL · LAC @ KC · Simulation

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

LAC 17 — 24 KC · win chance LAC 25.2% · KC 72.6% · total 41

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

32.3%LAC win in the simulated games

67.1%KC win in the simulated games

0.6%tie after overtime

3.2%game goes to overtime

LAC 17 – 23 KCmedian score · averages 17.24 – 23.44

40median total · 80% of games 25–57

KC by 6median margin · 80% range: LAC by 12 to KC by 24

41.2%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.2% · 6.2%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: KC points minus LAC points (below 0 means LAC won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (6). Range shown -45 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (40). Range shown 4 to 92.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
LAC	6	17	29	17.24
KC	11	23	36	23.44

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	LAC median (80%)	KC median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	LAC wins it	KC wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	6 (0–10)	8 (2–17)	32.1%	48.9%	19.0%
Q2	5 (0–12)	7 (0–14)	12 (3–21)	33.5%	52.6%	13.9%
Q3	3 (0–9)	6 (0–10)	7 (0–17)	31.8%	48.1%	20.1%
Q4	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	31.9%	50.7%	17.4%
1st half	8 (0–17)	12 (3–21)	20 (10–33)	34.2%	58.6%	7.2%
2nd half	7 (0–17)	10 (3–20)	19 (9–31)	33.2%	58.1%	8.7%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	LAC	KC
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	61 (49–74)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–42)
Completions	22 (15–30)	22 (15–29)
Passing yards	187 (109–280)	192 (115–284)
Passing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (17–33)	27 (19–36)
Rushing yards	104 (48–181)	131 (66–215)
Rushing TDs	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
LAC	15.7%	31.8%	29.3%	16.2%	5.5%	1.6%
KC	6.3%	19.7%	29.6%	24.9%	13.1%	6.3%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

LAC passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Justin Herbert QB	34 (25–44)	22 (15–30)	187 (109–280)	1.1	1.2

LAC rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Omarion Hampton RB	10 (6–15)	37 (10–83)	0.3
Justin Herbert QB	5 (2–9)	22 (4–59)	0.1
Keaton Mitchell RB	5 (2–8)	15 (1–48)	0.1
Kimani Vidal RB	3 (1–6)	12 (0–42)	0.1

LAC receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Ladd McConkey WR	4 (2–7)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–58)	0.1
Quentin Johnston WR	4 (2–8)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–56)	0.1
Charlie Kolar TE	4 (1–7)	3 (1–5)	17 (0–54)	0.1
David Njoku TE	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	15 (0–51)	0.1
Keaton Mitchell RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	12 (0–43)	0.1
Oronde Gadsden TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–45)	0.1

KC passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Patrick Mahomes QB	29 (21–38)	19 (13–26)	168 (97–256)	1.3	0.7

KC rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Kenneth Walker III RB	17 (11–24)	84 (36–152)	0.6
Patrick Mahomes QB	4 (1–6)	13 (1–42)	0.1
Emmett Johnson RB	2 (1–5)	7 (0–28)	0.1
Brashard Smith RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–13)	0.0

KC receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Travis Kelce TE	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	44 (11–96)	0.3
Xavier Worthy WR	8 (4–12)	5 (2–8)	40 (9–90)	0.4
Kenneth Walker III RB	5 (3–9)	4 (1–6)	26 (3–66)	0.3
Noah Gray TE	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	15 (0–51)	0.2
Jalen Royals WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	5 (0–31)	0.1
Brashard Smith RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	4 (0–30)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Kenneth Walker III RB	KC	58.8%	20.9%	21.1%
Xavier Worthy WR	KC	31.6%	5.0%	8.8%
Travis Kelce TE	KC	29.5%	4.3%	8.4%
Omarion Hampton RB	LAC	26.7%	3.7%	7.7%
Keaton Mitchell RB	LAC	21.1%	2.1%	5.7%
Kimani Vidal RB	LAC	15.2%	1.0%	3.6%
Noah Gray TE	KC	15.2%	1.1%	4.0%
Emmett Johnson RB	KC	15.1%	1.0%	4.3%
Quentin Johnston WR	LAC	14.5%	0.9%	3.5%
Ladd McConkey WR	LAC	12.3%	0.8%	3.2%
Charlie Kolar TE	LAC	11.4%	0.6%	2.6%
Brashard Smith RB	KC	11.2%	0.4%	2.8%
David Njoku TE	LAC	11.0%	0.7%	2.8%
Justin Herbert QB	LAC	10.8%	0.6%	2.7%
Oronde Gadsden TE	LAC	10.1%	0.5%	2.5%
Jalen Royals WR	KC	8.3%	0.3%	2.1%

First touchdown by team: LAC 40.1% · KC 58.9% · no offensive touchdown 1.0%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: LAC 17 – 23 KC

By quarter: LAC 7 / 3 / 0 / 7 · KC 3 / 7 / 7 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LAC–KC)
1	LAC	72	punt	3	2	0–0
1	KC	61	fg	9	60	0–3
1	LAC	74	td	16	74	7–3
1	KC	74	punt	3	34	7–3
2	LAC	85	punt	3	-4	7–3
2	KC	61	fg miss	5	4	7–3
2	LAC	12	fg	8	11	10–3
2	KC	60	td	2	60	10–10
2	LAC	69	punt	7	16	10–10
2	KC	61	end half	12	-1	10–10
2	KC	74	td	7	74	10–17
3	LAC	80	turnover	8	14	10–17
3	KC	31	turnover	4	-22	10–17
3	LAC	57	punt	4	5	10–17
3	KC	91	fg	8	72	10–20
4	LAC	69	td	3	69	17–20
4	KC	95	punt	3	26	17–20
4	LAC	71	turnover	8	14	17–20
4	KC	40	fg	5	18	17–23
4	LAC	75	turnover	2	-1	17–23
4	KC	39	end half	3	-2	17–23

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: LAC 26 – 31 KC

By quarter: LAC 10 / 7 / 6 / 3 · KC 0 / 7 / 14 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LAC–KC)
1	KC	82	punt	4	6	0–0
1	LAC	71	fg	5	29	3–0
1	KC	77	turnover	2	-1	3–0
1	LAC	28	td	6	28	10–0
1	KC	60	punt	3	-6	10–0
1	LAC	81	punt	4	4	10–0
1	KC	58	punt	3	-6	10–0
1	LAC	73	punt	3	9	10–0
1	KC	82	punt	3	4	10–0
1	LAC	75	punt	3	21	10–0
1	KC	48	td	9	48	10–7
2	LAC	65	punt	5	8	10–7
2	KC	88	punt	4	5	10–7
2	LAC	56	td	10	56	17–7
2	KC	68	end half	2	-1	17–7
2	LAC	70	fg	6	65	20–7
3	KC	78	td	7	78	20–14
3	LAC	69	fg	3	41	23–14
3	KC	84	td	8	84	23–21
3	LAC	76	punt	3	19	23–21
3	KC	84	turnover	3	5	23–21
4	LAC	40	turnover	3	16	23–21
4	KC	81	punt	3	9	23–21
4	LAC	69	punt	3	3	23–21
4	KC	67	turnover	6	39	23–21
4	LAC	64	punt	3	-7	23–21
4	KC	77	td	5	77	23–28
4	LAC	65	fg	4	39	26–28
4	KC	71	fg	7	70	26–31

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: LAC 10 – 16 KC

By quarter: LAC 0 / 3 / 7 / 0 · KC 3 / 3 / 7 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LAC–KC)
1	KC	85	punt	3	22	0–0
1	LAC	88	punt	8	17	0–0
1	KC	68	turnover	8	19	0–0
1	LAC	52	punt	4	-2	0–0
1	KC	78	fg	7	77	0–3
1	LAC	65	punt	6	12	0–3
2	KC	73	punt	6	39	0–3
2	LAC	98	punt	3	7	0–3
2	KC	44	fg	8	21	0–6
2	LAC	60	fg	9	20	3–6
2	LAC	82	fg miss	6	63	3–6
3	KC	73	punt	3	10	3–6
3	LAC	93	punt	3	7	3–6
3	KC	41	td	7	41	3–13
3	LAC	71	td	6	71	10–13
3	KC	77	punt	3	5	10–13
4	LAC	61	turnover	6	17	10–13
4	KC	61	fg	3	59	10–16
4	LAC	88	punt	3	24	10–16
4	KC	83	punt	3	34	10–16
4	LAC	88	punt	6	9	10–16
4	KC	74	punt	3	44	10–16
4	LAC	99	turnover	3	2	10–16
4	KC	21	end half	3	-3	10–16

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-16 23:18 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-18 20:25 UTC
Seed	872eecb6 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 41 / margin.median 7 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means KC 23.98 / LAC 17
Availability	injuries@2026-10-16T23:16:21Z+rosters@2026-10-16T23:16:21Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873006:b0528a43cb4edd0d

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.