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NFL · BUF @ LV · Simulation

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

BUF 28 — 21 LV · win chance BUF 72.0% · LV 25.3% · total 49

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

68.9%BUF win in the simulated games

30.7%LV win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.2%game goes to overtime

BUF 27 – 20 LVmedian score · averages 27.71 – 21

48median total · 80% of games 32–66

BUF by 7median margin · 80% range: BUF by 24 to LV by 11

41.6%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

7.7% · 6.1%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: LV points minus BUF points (below 0 means BUF won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-7). Range shown -66 to 48.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (48). Range shown 4 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
BUF	16	27	41	27.71
LV	10	20	34	21

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	BUF median (80%)	LV median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	BUF wins it	LV wins it	Level
Q1	7 (0–14)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–20)	49.9%	32.9%	17.2%
Q2	7 (0–15)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	53.6%	33.9%	12.4%
Q3	7 (0–14)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–20)	51.0%	31.6%	17.3%
Q4	7 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	13 (3–22)	50.7%	33.6%	15.7%
1st half	14 (6–24)	10 (3–20)	24 (13–37)	59.9%	33.4%	6.7%
2nd half	13 (6–22)	10 (2–19)	23 (12–36)	59.9%	32.7%	7.4%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	BUF	LV
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	64 (51–76)	62 (49–75)
Pass attempts	33 (24–42)	34 (25–44)
Completions	23 (16–30)	23 (16–31)
Passing yards	226 (141–322)	220 (134–319)
Passing TDs	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	27 (19–36)	24 (16–33)
Rushing yards	137 (71–222)	103 (47–180)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
BUF	2.3%	10.7%	23.0%	27.9%	20.9%	15.1%
LV	7.3%	22.3%	30.4%	23.6%	11.8%	4.5%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

BUF passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Josh Allen QB	29 (21–38)	20 (14–27)	201 (121–294)	1.7	0.5

BUF rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
James Cook III RB	15 (9–21)	74 (32–136)	0.7
Josh Allen QB	8 (4–12)	38 (11–82)	0.3
Ray Davis RB	1 (0–3)	1 (0–16)	0.1
Ty Johnson RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–14)	0.0

BUF receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Khalil Shakir WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	31 (5–77)	0.3
DJ Moore WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	24 (1–65)	0.3
Dalton Kincaid TE	4 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	22 (0–65)	0.2
Keon Coleman WR	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	20 (0–60)	0.2
Ty Johnson RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	19 (0–59)	0.2
Joshua Palmer WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	10 (0–44)	0.2

LV passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Kirk Cousins QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–31)	220 (134–319)	1.4	0.9

LV rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Ashton Jeanty RB	13 (8–19)	50 (17–107)	0.5
Kirk Cousins QB	5 (2–8)	16 (2–47)	0.1
Mike Washington Jr. RB	3 (1–6)	12 (0–43)	0.1
Dylan Laube RB	1 (0–3)	1 (0–16)	0.0

LV receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Brock Bowers TE	8 (4–12)	5 (3–9)	49 (13–104)	0.3
Tre Tucker WR	4 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	25 (1–68)	0.2
Ashton Jeanty RB	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	24 (2–67)	0.2
Michael Mayer TE	4 (1–6)	3 (1–5)	18 (0–56)	0.1
Jalen Nailor WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–46)	0.1
Jack Bech WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–45)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
James Cook III RB	BUF	55.0%	17.3%	14.4%
Ashton Jeanty RB	LV	50.7%	14.2%	12.3%
Brock Bowers TE	LV	28.5%	3.9%	5.9%
Josh Allen QB	BUF	27.0%	3.2%	6.2%
Khalil Shakir WR	BUF	25.3%	3.3%	5.6%
DJ Moore WR	BUF	24.8%	3.3%	5.7%
Ty Johnson RB	BUF	21.5%	2.4%	4.3%
Dalton Kincaid TE	BUF	19.7%	2.1%	4.2%
Tre Tucker WR	LV	19.6%	1.9%	4.0%
Keon Coleman WR	BUF	18.4%	1.9%	3.9%
Joshua Palmer WR	BUF	14.5%	1.1%	3.0%
Michael Mayer TE	LV	14.4%	1.0%	2.6%
Mike Washington Jr. RB	LV	13.9%	0.8%	2.5%
Dawson Knox TE	BUF	13.1%	0.8%	2.7%
Jalen Nailor WR	LV	12.2%	0.6%	2.4%
Skyler Bell WR	BUF	12.0%	0.7%	2.5%

First touchdown by team: BUF 59.2% · LV 40.5% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: BUF 28 – 21 LV (OT)

By quarter: BUF 0 / 3 / 0 / 18 / OT 7 · LV 3 / 0 / 0 / 18 / OT 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BUF–LV)
1	BUF	70	turnover	1	56	0–0
1	LV	97	fg	8	60	0–3
1	BUF	74	turnover	15	42	0–3
1	LV	65	punt	3	19	0–3
2	BUF	76	fg	10	40	3–3
2	LV	65	turnover	2	53	3–3
2	BUF	76	end half	10	-1	3–3
2	LV	82	punt	5	5	3–3
3	BUF	70	punt	3	9	3–3
3	LV	80	punt	3	18	3–3
3	BUF	81	punt	8	16	3–3
3	LV	81	fg	11	69	3–6
4	BUF	64	fg	9	63	6–6
4	LV	65	td	8	65	6–13
4	BUF	65	td	12	65	14–13
4	LV	83	opp td	4	14	21–13
4	LV	68	td	7	68	21–21
OT	BUF	61	td	8	61	28–21
OT	LV	66	punt	3	7	28–21

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: BUF 37 – 30 LV

By quarter: BUF 3 / 3 / 24 / 7 · LV 0 / 6 / 7 / 17

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BUF–LV)
1	LV	81	punt	7	19	0–0
1	BUF	69	fg	7	45	3–0
1	LV	74	punt	3	14	3–0
1	BUF	65	punt	3	17	3–0
1	LV	99	fg	11	77	3–3
2	BUF	72	punt	3	5	3–3
2	LV	55	punt	6	0	3–3
2	BUF	74	fg	8	47	6–3
2	LV	80	fg	8	66	6–6
2	BUF	82	td	5	82	13–6
3	LV	68	td	3	68	13–13
3	BUF	64	fg	5	63	16–13
3	LV	69	turnover	2	3	16–13
3	BUF	39	td	9	39	23–13
3	LV	64	opp td	3	2	30–13
3	LV	65	fg	12	44	30–16
4	BUF	59	td	10	59	37–16
4	LV	76	td	6	76	37–23
4	BUF	76	punt	3	5	37–23
4	LV	62	td	5	62	37–30
4	BUF	80	end half	1	6	37–30

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: BUF 20 – 13 LV

By quarter: BUF 13 / 7 / 0 / 0 · LV 7 / 6 / 0 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BUF–LV)
1	LV	73	opp td	4	10	7–0
1	LV	65	td	7	65	7–7
1	BUF	80	punt	7	3	7–7
1	LV	65	punt	3	15	7–7
1	BUF	99	td	11	99	13–7
1	LV	85	fg	16	55	13–10
2	BUF	57	td	4	57	20–10
2	LV	65	fg	13	40	20–13
2	BUF	72	punt	3	6	20–13
3	LV	93	turnover	3	62	20–13
3	BUF	94	end half	3	-1	20–13

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-14 23:45 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-18 20:25 UTC
Seed	a646480c · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 49 / margin.median -7 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means LV 20.94 / BUF 27.98
Availability	injuries@2026-10-14T23:43:46Z+rosters@2026-10-14T23:43:46Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873005:0e58cb3be7b9440b

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.