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NFL · ARI @ LAR · Simulation

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

ARI 21 — 32 LAR · win chance ARI 19.4% · LAR 78.5% · total 53

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

23.0%ARI win in the simulated games

76.8%LAR win in the simulated games

0.2%tie after overtime

2.7%game goes to overtime

ARI 21 – 31 LARmedian score · averages 21.92 – 31.69

53median total · 80% of games 36–71

LAR by 10median margin · 80% range: ARI by 7 to LAR by 27

37.9%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

7.1% · 5.6%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: LAR points minus ARI points (below 0 means ARI won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (10). Range shown -36 to 60.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (53). Range shown 8 to 112.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
ARI	10	21	34	21.92
LAR	20	31	45	31.69

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	ARI median (80%)	LAR median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	ARI wins it	LAR wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	29.4%	54.9%	15.7%
Q2	7 (0–14)	9 (3–17)	16 (7–25)	29.7%	59.0%	11.2%
Q3	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	29.8%	53.8%	16.4%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	30.7%	54.7%	14.6%
1st half	10 (3–20)	16 (7–27)	27 (16–40)	28.1%	66.6%	5.3%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	14 (7–24)	26 (13–38)	28.4%	64.3%	7.3%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	ARI	LAR
Drives	11 (9–13)	10 (9–13)
Plays	61 (48–74)	64 (52–77)
Pass attempts	35 (26–45)	33 (24–42)
Completions	24 (17–32)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	221 (134–322)	248 (161–348)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (1–4)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–1)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	23 (16–32)	28 (20–37)
Rushing yards	112 (54–191)	144 (76–231)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–3)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
ARI	6.0%	19.6%	29.1%	25.2%	13.6%	6.4%
LAR	0.8%	5.4%	15.4%	26.4%	25.1%	26.9%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

ARI passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jacoby Brissett QB	31 (22–40)	21 (14–28)	196 (114–290)	1.4	0.7

ARI rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Trey Benson RB	6 (3–10)	27 (6–70)	0.3
Tyler Allgeier RB	7 (3–11)	27 (6–67)	0.3
Jacoby Brissett QB	5 (2–8)	22 (4–59)	0.1
Bam Knight RB	5 (2–8)	19 (2–55)	0.2

ARI receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Trey McBride TE	9 (5–13)	6 (3–10)	50 (16–104)	0.4
Michael Wilson WR	8 (4–12)	5 (2–8)	43 (10–95)	0.3
Kendrick Bourne WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	22 (1–63)	0.2
Trey Benson RB	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–42)	0.1
Reggie Virgil WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–42)	0.1
Elijah Higgins TE	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–35)	0.1

LAR passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Matthew Stafford QB	31 (23–40)	22 (15–29)	237 (152–334)	2.2	0.4

LAR rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Kyren Williams RB	14 (8–20)	69 (28–130)	0.7
Blake Corum RB	7 (3–10)	30 (7–74)	0.3
Matthew Stafford QB	4 (1–7)	14 (1–44)	0.1
Ronnie Rivers RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–28)	0.1

LAR receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Puka Nacua WR	9 (6–14)	7 (4–11)	70 (25–134)	0.7
Davante Adams WR	6 (3–10)	4 (1–7)	42 (9–96)	0.4
Kyren Williams RB	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	24 (3–66)	0.3
Tyler Higbee TE	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	23 (1–66)	0.2
Konata Mumpfield WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	10 (0–45)	0.2
Colby Parkinson TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–37)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Kyren Williams RB	LAR	65.8%	26.1%	18.0%
Puka Nacua WR	LAR	54.2%	16.6%	12.6%
Blake Corum RB	LAR	35.8%	6.7%	7.5%
Davante Adams WR	LAR	35.5%	6.7%	7.3%
Trey McBride TE	ARI	33.0%	5.4%	6.1%
Trey Benson RB	ARI	31.6%	5.1%	5.6%
Tyler Allgeier RB	ARI	31.2%	5.1%	5.6%
Michael Wilson WR	ARI	30.1%	4.8%	5.4%
Tyler Higbee TE	LAR	21.8%	2.4%	4.2%
Bam Knight RB	ARI	20.1%	2.1%	3.2%
Kendrick Bourne WR	ARI	15.8%	1.2%	2.5%
Konata Mumpfield WR	LAR	15.4%	0.9%	2.9%
Jacoby Brissett QB	ARI	14.3%	0.8%	2.4%
Ronnie Rivers RB	LAR	13.5%	1.0%	2.3%
Colby Parkinson TE	LAR	11.6%	0.7%	2.0%
Matthew Stafford QB	LAR	11.2%	0.6%	2.1%

First touchdown by team: ARI 36.8% · LAR 63.1% · no offensive touchdown 0.1%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: ARI 22 – 32 LAR

By quarter: ARI 0 / 9 / 10 / 3 · LAR 7 / 8 / 3 / 14

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (ARI–LAR)
1	LAR	80	punt	6	5	0–0
1	ARI	78	punt	4	38	0–0
1	LAR	99	td	11	99	0–7
1	ARI	72	punt	3	35	0–7
1	LAR	99	punt	3	6	0–7
1	ARI	47	fg	11	18	3–7
2	LAR	69	punt	6	19	3–7
2	ARI	85	punt	3	11	3–7
2	LAR	69	td	11	69	3–15
2	ARI	80	td	5	80	9–15
2	ARI	78	punt	3	8	9–15
3	LAR	50	fg	6	40	9–18
3	ARI	80	td	9	80	16–18
3	LAR	64	turnover	3	1	16–18
3	ARI	27	fg	10	10	19–18
3	LAR	82	td	12	82	19–25
4	ARI	60	fg	6	35	22–25
4	LAR	69	td	6	69	22–32
4	ARI	65	downs	4	56	22–32
4	LAR	99	fg miss	3	47	22–32
4	ARI	40	end half	7	-4	22–32

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: ARI 30 – 40 LAR

By quarter: ARI 3 / 7 / 10 / 10 · LAR 6 / 3 / 14 / 17

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (ARI–LAR)
1	ARI	72	fg	6	58	3–0
1	LAR	65	punt	6	-2	3–0
1	ARI	72	turnover	3	69	3–0
1	LAR	99	td	9	99	3–6
1	ARI	65	punt	6	-10	3–6
1	LAR	55	fg	9	54	3–9
2	ARI	76	td	12	76	10–9
2	LAR	78	punt	3	9	10–9
2	ARI	89	end half	2	17	10–9
2	LAR	78	punt	6	8	10–9
3	ARI	57	td	9	57	17–9
3	LAR	60	td	12	60	17–16
3	ARI	82	fg	3	81	20–16
3	LAR	65	td	5	65	20–23
3	ARI	61	td	6	61	27–23
4	LAR	71	punt	3	8	27–23
4	ARI	77	fg	3	75	30–23
4	LAR	60	fg	8	25	30–26
4	ARI	71	opp td	1	5	30–33
4	ARI	74	turnover	6	-4	30–33
4	LAR	42	td	7	42	30–40
4	ARI	65	punt	3	19	30–40
4	LAR	98	end half	1	10	30–40

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: ARI 13 – 23 LAR

By quarter: ARI 0 / 0 / 6 / 7 · LAR 14 / 6 / 0 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (ARI–LAR)
1	LAR	76	punt	3	-6	0–0
1	ARI	52	downs	8	19	0–0
1	LAR	67	td	7	67	0–7
1	ARI	72	punt	3	23	0–7
1	LAR	99	td	7	99	0–14
1	ARI	73	punt	4	15	0–14
1	LAR	68	turnover	7	8	0–14
2	ARI	62	punt	3	29	0–14
2	LAR	99	punt	5	22	0–14
2	ARI	65	downs	4	4	0–14
2	LAR	24	fg	5	23	0–17
2	ARI	67	punt	3	15	0–17
2	LAR	68	fg	5	52	0–20
2	ARI	66	td	16	66	6–20
3	LAR	65	punt	3	6	6–20
3	ARI	68	punt	8	-1	6–20
4	LAR	82	punt	8	8	6–20
4	ARI	63	td	11	63	13–20
4	LAR	77	fg	10	57	13–23
4	ARI	74	end half	2	13	13–23

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-16 23:18 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-18 20:05 UTC
Seed	49c26241 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 53 / margin.median 10 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means LAR 31.51 / ARI 21.52
Availability	injuries@2026-10-16T23:16:21Z+rosters@2026-10-16T23:16:21Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873004:4bc6ac5e36a01722

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.