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NFL · TEN @ IND · Simulation

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

TEN 18 — 27 IND · win chance TEN 23.4% · IND 74.3% · total 45

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

25.6%TEN win in the simulated games

74.0%IND win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

2.6%game goes to overtime

TEN 17 – 27 INDmedian score · averages 18.06 – 26.94

44median total · 80% of games 29–62

IND by 9median margin · 80% range: TEN by 9 to IND by 27

37.7%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

7.1% · 5.7%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: IND points minus TEN points (below 0 means TEN won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (9). Range shown -51 to 60.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (44). Range shown 4 to 96.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
TEN	7	17	30	18.06
IND	14	27	39	26.94

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	TEN median (80%)	IND median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	TEN wins it	IND wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–17)	30.2%	52.4%	17.4%
Q2	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	30.1%	57.2%	12.7%
Q3	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–17)	28.8%	52.8%	18.4%
Q4	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	30.3%	54.1%	15.6%
1st half	9 (0–17)	14 (6–24)	23 (13–35)	29.2%	64.1%	6.7%
2nd half	7 (0–17)	13 (3–21)	21 (10–34)	29.5%	63.6%	6.9%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	TEN	IND
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	61 (49–74)	64 (51–77)
Pass attempts	34 (26–44)	32 (24–42)
Completions	23 (16–31)	22 (15–29)
Passing yards	197 (115–292)	218 (134–314)
Passing TDs	1 (0–2)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	23 (16–32)	28 (19–37)
Rushing yards	105 (48–182)	132 (68–215)
Rushing TDs	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
TEN	12.4%	29.5%	30.7%	18.5%	6.8%	2.1%
IND	2.6%	13.1%	24.7%	27.7%	19.6%	12.3%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

TEN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Cam Ward QB	30 (22–39)	20 (14–27)	171 (96–262)	1.0	0.9

TEN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Tony Pollard RB	13 (8–19)	54 (19–110)	0.4
Cam Ward QB	4 (1–7)	15 (1–45)	0.1
Tyjae Spears RB	3 (1–6)	9 (0–35)	0.1
Nicholas Singleton RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–26)	0.1

TEN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Carnell Tate WR	8 (5–12)	5 (2–9)	43 (11–95)	0.3
Wan'Dale Robinson WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	30 (5–74)	0.2
Tyjae Spears RB	4 (1–7)	3 (1–5)	16 (0–51)	0.1
Elic Ayomanor WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–47)	0.1
Calvin Ridley WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–43)	0.1
Gunnar Helm TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–41)	0.1

IND passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Daniel Jones QB	32 (24–42)	22 (15–29)	218 (134–314)	1.8	0.6

IND rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jonathan Taylor RB	15 (10–22)	70 (29–133)	0.6
Daniel Jones QB	6 (3–10)	25 (6–62)	0.2
Seth McGowan RB	3 (1–5)	9 (0–35)	0.1
DJ Giddens RB	2 (1–5)	8 (0–34)	0.1

IND receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Tyler Warren TE	7 (3–10)	5 (2–8)	41 (10–91)	0.4
Josh Downs WR	6 (3–10)	4 (1–7)	35 (6–84)	0.3
Keenan Allen WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	35 (7–84)	0.4
Laquon Treadwell WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	18 (0–59)	0.2
Jonathan Taylor RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–56)	0.2
Mo Alie-Cox TE	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)	3 (0–30)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Jonathan Taylor RB	IND	57.5%	18.8%	17.1%
Tony Pollard RB	TEN	38.6%	8.2%	9.5%
Tyler Warren TE	IND	33.4%	5.4%	8.8%
Keenan Allen WR	IND	31.5%	5.1%	8.3%
Josh Downs WR	IND	29.6%	4.3%	7.6%
Carnell Tate WR	TEN	25.4%	3.2%	5.5%
Tyjae Spears RB	TEN	20.5%	2.1%	4.4%
Wan'Dale Robinson WR	TEN	20.4%	2.1%	4.7%
Laquon Treadwell WR	IND	18.4%	1.5%	4.2%
Daniel Jones QB	IND	18.0%	1.5%	4.4%
Seth McGowan RB	IND	15.9%	1.1%	3.6%
DJ Giddens RB	IND	11.0%	0.5%	2.5%
Elic Ayomanor WR	TEN	9.8%	0.4%	2.0%
Gunnar Helm TE	TEN	8.9%	0.4%	2.0%
Calvin Ridley WR	TEN	8.8%	0.3%	1.8%
Deion Burks WR	IND	7.9%	0.3%	1.7%

First touchdown by team: TEN 36.9% · IND 62.9% · no offensive touchdown 0.2%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: TEN 17 – 27 IND

By quarter: TEN 0 / 3 / 7 / 7 · IND 7 / 10 / 7 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (TEN–IND)
1	TEN	65	punt	3	6	0–0
1	IND	94	td	14	94	0–7
1	TEN	90	punt	11	-1	0–7
1	IND	42	turnover	11	21	0–7
2	TEN	77	turnover	4	0	0–7
2	IND	38	turnover	5	30	0–7
2	TEN	99	fg	11	71	3–7
2	IND	73	td	10	73	3–14
2	TEN	80	downs	8	24	3–14
2	IND	56	fg	11	25	3–17
2	IND	82	punt	7	-5	3–17
3	TEN	48	downs	4	27	3–17
3	IND	79	td	9	79	3–24
3	TEN	71	punt	6	2	3–24
3	IND	86	opp td	3	12	10–24
3	IND	71	turnover	1	51	10–24
4	TEN	80	punt	3	-6	10–24
4	IND	42	fg	7	35	10–27
4	TEN	65	td	2	65	17–27
4	IND	69	turnover	3	20	17–27
4	TEN	59	turnover	5	-7	17–27
4	IND	34	punt	3	-2	17–27
4	TEN	99	downs	10	83	17–27
4	IND	83	turnover	9	25	17–27
4	TEN	65	end half	3	-1	17–27

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: TEN 27 – 36 IND

By quarter: TEN 0 / 10 / 7 / 10 · IND 6 / 10 / 3 / 17

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (TEN–IND)
1	IND	70	fg	8	57	0–3
1	TEN	85	punt	5	-12	0–3
1	IND	50	fg	7	35	0–6
1	TEN	82	punt	4	5	0–6
2	IND	67	fg	4	38	0–9
2	TEN	66	turnover	3	-5	0–9
2	IND	19	td	2	19	0–16
2	TEN	69	td	11	69	7–16
2	IND	77	punt	3	18	7–16
2	TEN	34	fg	5	23	10–16
2	TEN	65	td	12	65	17–16
3	IND	60	fg	3	50	17–19
3	TEN	65	punt	3	24	17–19
3	IND	99	downs	6	59	17–19
3	TEN	59	punt	3	6	17–19
4	IND	78	td	1	78	17–26
4	TEN	70	td	9	70	24–26
4	IND	83	fg	7	57	24–29
4	TEN	71	fg	8	60	27–29
4	IND	66	td	8	66	27–36

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: TEN 10 – 19 IND

By quarter: TEN 0 / 3 / 7 / 0 · IND 10 / 3 / 6 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (TEN–IND)
1	IND	82	td	10	82	0–7
1	TEN	65	turnover	2	41	0–7
1	IND	74	fg	12	70	0–10
1	TEN	71	punt	3	28	0–10
2	IND	99	punt	8	6	0–10
2	TEN	59	fg	3	25	3–10
2	IND	74	punt	3	21	3–10
2	TEN	90	punt	6	33	3–10
2	IND	80	punt	3	16	3–10
2	TEN	85	punt	3	4	3–10
2	IND	71	fg	4	51	3–13
2	TEN	65	end half	3	-1	3–13
2	TEN	80	punt	5	33	3–13
3	IND	99	fg	6	65	3–16
3	TEN	66	td	5	66	10–16
3	IND	65	fg	3	45	10–19
3	TEN	80	turnover	4	32	10–19
4	IND	60	punt	3	8	10–19
4	TEN	88	punt	3	4	10–19
4	IND	57	punt	3	1	10–19
4	TEN	84	punt	4	3	10–19
4	IND	55	turnover	6	0	10–19
4	TEN	53	punt	8	6	10–19
4	IND	94	end half	1	-1	10–19

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-17 17:31 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-18 17:00 UTC
Seed	5ccd3ce5 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 45 / margin.median 9 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means IND 26.99 / TEN 17.9
Availability	injuries@2026-10-17T17:29:14Z+rosters@2026-10-17T17:29:14Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873003:de25e3d792c4fd51

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.