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NFL · PIT @ TB · Simulation

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

PIT 23 — 22 TB · win chance PIT 55.0% · TB 42.0% · total 45

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

54.8%PIT win in the simulated games

44.9%TB win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.5%game goes to overtime

PIT 23 – 20 TBmedian score · averages 22.89 – 21.19

43median total · 80% of games 28–61

PIT by 2median margin · 80% range: PIT by 20 to TB by 16

45.2%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.8% · 7.0%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: TB points minus PIT points (below 0 means PIT won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-2). Range shown -60 to 51.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (43). Range shown 4 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
PIT	10	23	35	22.89
TB	10	20	34	21.19

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	PIT median (80%)	TB median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	PIT wins it	TB wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–17)	43.3%	38.9%	17.8%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–22)	46.3%	40.2%	13.5%
Q3	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	9 (3–17)	42.4%	37.7%	19.9%
Q4	7 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–21)	43.6%	39.8%	16.6%
1st half	11 (3–21)	10 (3–20)	23 (12–34)	50.2%	43.1%	6.7%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	10 (3–19)	20 (10–33)	49.0%	42.8%	8.2%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	PIT	TB
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	63 (50–75)	62 (50–75)
Pass attempts	33 (24–43)	33 (25–43)
Completions	22 (15–30)	22 (16–30)
Passing yards	203 (123–299)	200 (118–294)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	26 (18–35)	25 (17–34)
Rushing yards	122 (61–204)	117 (58–198)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
PIT	6.2%	19.7%	30.5%	24.9%	12.5%	6.2%
TB	7.8%	23.5%	31.0%	22.5%	10.9%	4.2%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

PIT passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Aaron Rodgers QB	32 (23–42)	21 (15–29)	196 (116–288)	1.4	0.8

PIT rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jaylen Warren RB	13 (8–19)	65 (25–125)	0.5
Rico Dowdle RB	6 (3–10)	20 (3–56)	0.2
Aaron Rodgers QB	4 (1–7)	14 (1–43)	0.1
Travis Homer RB	1 (0–3)	2 (0–19)	0.1

PIT receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
DK Metcalf WR	8 (4–12)	4 (2–8)	40 (8–91)	0.3
Jaylen Warren RB	5 (3–9)	4 (1–7)	32 (5–79)	0.3
Pat Freiermuth TE	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	31 (6–77)	0.3
Germie Bernard WR	6 (3–9)	4 (1–7)	30 (5–76)	0.3
Darnell Washington TE	4 (1–7)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–57)	0.2
Rico Dowdle RB	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–46)	0.1

TB passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jalon Daniels QB	33 (25–43)	22 (16–30)	200 (118–294)	1.4	0.9

TB rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Bucky Irving RB	13 (8–19)	59 (22–118)	0.4
Jalon Daniels QB	5 (2–8)	20 (3–56)	0.1
Sean Tucker RB	3 (1–5)	8 (0–34)	0.1
Kenny Gainwell RB	3 (1–5)	7 (0–30)	0.1

TB receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Emeka Egbuka WR	7 (4–11)	4 (2–7)	34 (7–82)	0.3
Cade Otton TE	5 (3–9)	4 (1–6)	28 (4–72)	0.2
Chris Godwin Jr. WR	4 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	25 (3–67)	0.2
Ted Hurst III WR	4 (1–7)	2 (1–4)	17 (0–56)	0.2
Kenny Gainwell RB	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–48)	0.1
Bucky Irving RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	14 (0–47)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Jaylen Warren RB	PIT	53.3%	16.0%	15.9%
Bucky Irving RB	TB	45.0%	10.7%	12.5%
DK Metcalf WR	PIT	30.7%	4.7%	7.6%
Rico Dowdle RB	PIT	29.9%	4.5%	7.4%
Emeka Egbuka WR	TB	26.6%	3.3%	6.5%
Pat Freiermuth TE	PIT	25.2%	2.7%	6.0%
Germie Bernard WR	PIT	24.8%	3.0%	5.9%
Kenny Gainwell RB	TB	21.3%	2.4%	5.1%
Cade Otton TE	TB	20.1%	1.7%	4.9%
Chris Godwin Jr. WR	TB	18.0%	1.5%	4.2%
Darnell Washington TE	PIT	16.2%	1.2%	4.1%
Ted Hurst III WR	TB	15.6%	1.0%	3.6%
Jalon Daniels QB	TB	11.3%	0.6%	2.7%
Sean Tucker RB	TB	9.9%	0.4%	2.4%
Tez Johnson WR	TB	9.0%	0.4%	2.1%
Aaron Rodgers QB	PIT	7.7%	0.3%	1.9%

First touchdown by team: PIT 51.7% · TB 47.9% · no offensive touchdown 0.4%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: PIT 22 – 20 TB

By quarter: PIT 9 / 10 / 0 / 3 · TB 7 / 0 / 6 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (PIT–TB)
1	PIT	76	fg	9	53	3–0
1	TB	71	opp td	5	8	9–0
1	TB	69	td	11	69	9–7
1	PIT	71	fg	10	37	12–7
2	TB	65	turnover	1	24	12–7
2	PIT	89	punt	3	18	12–7
2	TB	81	punt	3	1	12–7
2	PIT	82	td	9	82	19–7
2	TB	70	turnover	4	46	19–7
2	PIT	86	punt	4	-7	19–7
2	TB	57	turnover	3	56	19–7
2	PIT	99	end half	3	4	19–7
2	TB	68	fg	7	61	19–10
3	PIT	81	punt	3	28	19–10
3	TB	86	fg	12	44	19–13
3	PIT	72	punt	3	4	19–13
3	TB	75	punt	5	25	19–13
3	PIT	92	punt	6	10	19–13
4	TB	72	punt	6	12	19–13
4	PIT	66	punt	3	2	19–13
4	TB	81	punt	3	2	19–13
4	PIT	49	fg	3	22	22–13
4	TB	72	td	4	72	22–20
4	PIT	75	end half	1	73	22–20

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: PIT 31 – 29 TB (OT)

By quarter: PIT 0 / 13 / 10 / 6 / OT 2 · TB 3 / 9 / 3 / 14 / OT 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (PIT–TB)
1	TB	71	punt	3	0	0–0
1	PIT	60	punt	4	-15	0–0
1	TB	65	punt	3	4	0–0
1	PIT	91	punt	3	-4	0–0
1	TB	37	fg	7	8	0–3
1	PIT	65	downs	8	8	0–3
1	TB	38	turnover	4	12	0–3
2	PIT	86	td	12	86	6–3
2	TB	65	td	5	65	6–9
2	PIT	74	td	5	74	13–9
2	TB	43	fg miss	8	20	13–9
2	PIT	69	turnover	3	10	13–9
2	TB	42	fg	11	27	13–12
2	PIT	67	td	9	67	20–12
3	TB	73	fg	7	72	20–15
3	PIT	52	fg	6	15	23–15
3	TB	65	turnover	11	28	23–15
3	PIT	48	fg	8	27	26–15
4	TB	74	td	8	74	26–22
4	PIT	71	fg	6	46	29–22
4	TB	66	td	15	66	29–29
4	PIT	60	end half	6	-4	29–29
OT	PIT	43	punt	5	-1	29–29
OT	TB	97	punt	3	21	29–29
OT	PIT	54	punt	3	0	29–29
OT	TB	98	safety	2	-2	31–29

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: PIT 15 – 13 TB

By quarter: PIT 0 / 3 / 3 / 9 · TB 3 / 7 / 3 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (PIT–TB)
1	TB	60	punt	3	3	0–0
1	PIT	77	punt	3	31	0–0
1	TB	81	punt	3	28	0–0
1	PIT	68	punt	5	0	0–0
1	TB	71	punt	3	26	0–0
1	PIT	92	punt	5	2	0–0
1	TB	68	fg	6	25	0–3
1	PIT	70	fg miss	10	24	0–3
2	TB	36	td	7	36	0–10
2	PIT	72	fg	11	57	3–10
2	TB	78	punt	3	9	3–10
2	PIT	71	end half	14	-1	3–10
2	PIT	72	fg	3	49	6–10
3	TB	75	punt	3	8	6–10
3	PIT	73	punt	3	2	6–10
3	TB	65	fg	6	44	6–13
3	PIT	80	punt	3	-6	6–13
3	TB	72	punt	3	12	6–13
3	PIT	89	punt	6	31	6–13
3	TB	77	punt	7	36	6–13
4	PIT	99	td	7	99	13–13
4	TB	65	turnover	8	0	13–13
4	PIT	1	downs	7	0	13–13
4	TB	99	safety	1	-1	15–13
4	PIT	57	end half	3	-8	15–13

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-17 14:24 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-18 17:00 UTC
Seed	7e849051 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 45 / margin.median -2 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means TB 21.63 / PIT 23.48
Availability	injuries@2026-10-17T12:56:31Z+rosters@2026-10-17T12:56:31Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873002:a259c7f823261470

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.