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NFL · NYJ @ NE · Simulation

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

NYJ 16 — 27 NE · win chance NYJ 17.8% · NE 79.9% · total 43

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

21.7%NYJ win in the simulated games

78.0%NE win in the simulated games

0.3%tie after overtime

2.8%game goes to overtime

NYJ 16 – 27 NEmedian score · averages 16.46 – 27.01

43median total · 80% of games 28–60

NE by 11median margin · 80% range: NYJ by 7 to NE by 28

35.5%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

6.6% · 5.4%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: NE points minus NYJ points (below 0 means NYJ won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (11). Range shown -45 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (43). Range shown 0 to 92.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
NYJ	6	16	28	16.46
NE	15	27	40	27.01

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	NYJ median (80%)	NE median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	NYJ wins it	NE wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–9)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–17)	27.9%	54.7%	17.4%
Q2	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–21)	27.6%	59.4%	13.1%
Q3	3 (0–8)	7 (0–14)	9 (3–17)	26.3%	55.4%	18.2%
Q4	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	27.5%	55.8%	16.7%
1st half	7 (0–17)	14 (6–24)	23 (12–34)	26.1%	67.7%	6.2%
2nd half	7 (0–16)	13 (3–21)	20 (10–33)	25.3%	67.1%	7.7%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	NYJ	NE
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	60 (48–73)	64 (52–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	32 (24–42)
Completions	23 (16–31)	22 (16–30)
Passing yards	193 (111–288)	218 (134–315)
Passing TDs	1 (0–2)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–3)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	23 (16–31)	28 (20–37)
Rushing yards	97 (44–171)	130 (66–213)
Rushing TDs	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
NYJ	16.4%	32.3%	29.7%	15.1%	5.1%	1.3%
NE	2.9%	13.4%	25.6%	27.4%	18.5%	12.2%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

NYJ passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Geno Smith QB	30 (22–39)	20 (14–28)	169 (94–258)	0.9	1.1

NYJ rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Braelon Allen RB	15 (10–22)	63 (24–124)	0.4
Geno Smith QB	5 (2–8)	17 (2–50)	0.1
Isaiah Davis RB	1 (0–3)	1 (0–18)	0.0
Kene Nwangwu RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–13)	0.0

NYJ receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Garrett Wilson WR	9 (5–14)	6 (3–10)	52 (16–106)	0.3
Kenyon Sadiq TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	21 (1–62)	0.1
Mason Taylor TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	16 (0–52)	0.1
Isaiah Williams WR	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	15 (0–51)	0.1
Jeremy Ruckert TE	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	9 (0–39)	0.1
Braelon Allen RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	8 (0–37)	0.1

NE passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Drake Maye QB	31 (23–41)	21 (15–29)	212 (129–306)	1.8	0.6
Efton Chism III WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–1)	0 (0–2)	0.0	0.0

NE rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Rhamondre Stevenson RB	9 (5–13)	35 (10–81)	0.3
Drake Maye QB	7 (4–11)	31 (8–74)	0.2
TreVeyon Henderson RB	8 (4–12)	30 (8–72)	0.3
Corey Kiner RB	3 (1–6)	10 (0–37)	0.1

NE receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Romeo Doubs WR	5 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	31 (4–77)	0.3
Hunter Henry TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	29 (4–75)	0.3
DeMario Douglas WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	26 (3–70)	0.3
Rhamondre Stevenson RB	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	23 (2–64)	0.3
Efton Chism III WR	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–56)	0.2
Eli Raridon TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–51)	0.2

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Rhamondre Stevenson RB	NE	45.6%	11.7%	13.8%
Braelon Allen RB	NYJ	40.7%	8.7%	10.6%
TreVeyon Henderson RB	NE	32.6%	5.4%	9.0%
Romeo Doubs WR	NE	26.8%	4.0%	7.4%
Garrett Wilson WR	NYJ	26.4%	3.6%	6.4%
DeMario Douglas WR	NE	24.5%	3.0%	5.8%
Hunter Henry TE	NE	23.8%	3.1%	5.9%
Drake Maye QB	NE	19.7%	1.9%	4.9%
Efton Chism III WR	NE	19.0%	1.8%	4.7%
Eli Raridon TE	NE	15.4%	1.1%	3.6%
Kenyon Sadiq TE	NYJ	14.1%	0.9%	3.1%
Corey Kiner RB	NE	13.9%	1.0%	3.4%
Kyle Williams WR	NE	13.5%	1.0%	3.4%
Isaiah Williams WR	NYJ	11.5%	0.7%	2.5%
Mason Taylor TE	NYJ	11.5%	0.7%	2.5%
Lan Larison RB	NE	9.8%	0.4%	2.4%

First touchdown by team: NYJ 34.2% · NE 65.4% · no offensive touchdown 0.5%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: NYJ 16 – 27 NE

By quarter: NYJ 0 / 9 / 7 / 0 · NE 7 / 0 / 7 / 13

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NYJ–NE)
1	NE	57	punt	8	8	0–0
1	NYJ	75	punt	3	7	0–0
1	NE	70	td	5	70	0–7
1	NYJ	71	punt	3	14	0–7
1	NE	92	turnover	7	64	0–7
1	NYJ	86	fg miss	7	62	0–7
1	NE	67	punt	6	23	0–7
1	NYJ	87	punt	3	35	0–7
2	NE	95	punt	3	1	0–7
2	NYJ	55	punt	3	20	0–7
2	NE	99	punt	3	7	0–7
2	NYJ	35	fg	9	12	3–7
2	NE	75	punt	3	7	3–7
2	NYJ	52	punt	5	-5	3–7
2	NE	83	opp td	2	16	9–7
2	NE	71	end half	6	-1	9–7
2	NYJ	71	turnover	1	15	9–7
3	NE	62	fg miss	7	36	9–7
3	NYJ	56	punt	3	-8	9–7
3	NE	88	td	13	88	9–14
3	NYJ	70	td	4	70	16–14
3	NE	73	punt	3	32	16–14
3	NYJ	99	punt	5	15	16–14
4	NE	57	fg	3	21	16–17
4	NYJ	72	punt	3	13	16–17
4	NE	76	fg	8	3	16–20
4	NYJ	65	downs	6	30	16–20
4	NE	60	td	9	60	16–27
4	NYJ	69	downs	4	8	16–27
4	NE	78	end half	1	-1	16–27

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: NYJ 24 – 36 NE

By quarter: NYJ 7 / 17 / 0 / 0 · NE 0 / 14 / 10 / 12

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NYJ–NE)
1	NE	75	punt	5	4	0–0
1	NYJ	83	td	7	83	7–0
1	NE	69	downs	11	5	7–0
1	NYJ	35	td	10	35	14–0
2	NE	73	td	7	73	14–7
2	NYJ	77	fg	11	53	17–7
2	NE	80	opp td	1	5	24–7
2	NE	65	td	10	65	24–14
2	NYJ	73	punt	8	29	24–14
3	NE	93	td	1	93	24–21
3	NYJ	67	punt	3	7	24–21
3	NE	82	fg	4	56	24–24
3	NYJ	72	punt	3	12	24–24
3	NE	72	fg	13	46	24–27
4	NYJ	74	turnover	4	47	24–27
4	NE	63	td	13	63	24–33
4	NYJ	65	punt	3	4	24–33
4	NE	59	punt	3	1	24–33
4	NYJ	99	turnover	4	32	24–33
4	NE	24	fg	7	23	24–36

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: NYJ 9 – 20 NE

By quarter: NYJ 0 / 3 / 3 / 3 · NE 3 / 7 / 7 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NYJ–NE)
1	NYJ	72	downs	10	17	0–0
1	NE	45	fg	8	17	0–3
1	NYJ	76	punt	3	22	0–3
1	NE	99	punt	8	32	0–3
2	NYJ	46	fg	9	29	3–3
2	NE	65	downs	9	27	3–3
2	NYJ	62	punt	4	0	3–3
2	NE	80	td	9	80	3–10
2	NE	74	punt	3	-5	3–10
3	NYJ	70	fg	14	43	6–10
3	NE	48	td	3	48	6–17
3	NYJ	74	fg	7	51	9–17
4	NE	69	fg	4	48	9–20
4	NYJ	67	turnover	6	46	9–20
4	NE	82	punt	5	8	9–20
4	NYJ	74	punt	6	6	9–20
4	NE	47	punt	3	-4	9–20
4	NYJ	99	end half	1	61	9–20

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-16 17:09 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-18 17:00 UTC
Seed	cc294657 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 43 / margin.median 10 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means NE 26.58 / NYJ 16.59
Availability	injuries@2026-10-16T17:07:10Z+rosters@2026-10-16T17:07:10Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873001:3e04619888404001

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.