New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths
Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page
Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.
This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.
Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation
NO 21 — 25 NYG · win chance NO 34.8% · NYG 62.5% · total 46
A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.
Game outcome · Simulation V2
Score distribution
Each team's score
| Team | Low (10th) | Median | High (90th) | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 10 | 21 | 34 | 21.51 |
| NYG | 13 | 24 | 37 | 24.29 |
Quarters and halves
From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.
| Period | NO median (80%) | NYG median (80%) | Both teams (80%) | NO wins it | NYG wins it | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 3 (0–10) | 6 (0–13) | 10 (3–17) | 36.8% | 45.6% | 17.6% |
| Q2 | 7 (0–14) | 7 (0–14) | 13 (6–23) | 39.9% | 47.4% | 12.7% |
| Q3 | 3 (0–10) | 6 (0–13) | 10 (3–17) | 37.4% | 43.8% | 18.8% |
| Q4 | 6 (0–13) | 7 (0–14) | 11 (3–21) | 37.9% | 45.4% | 16.7% |
| 1st half | 10 (3–20) | 13 (3–21) | 23 (13–36) | 41.3% | 52.3% | 6.4% |
| 2nd half | 10 (3–20) | 10 (3–21) | 21 (10–34) | 40.5% | 51.2% | 8.3% |
Team box · median (80% range)
| Stat | NO | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Drives | 11 (9–13) | 11 (9–13) |
| Plays | 62 (50–75) | 63 (50–76) |
| Pass attempts | 34 (25–44) | 33 (25–43) |
| Completions | 23 (16–31) | 22 (16–30) |
| Passing yards | 212 (128–309) | 216 (132–313) |
| Passing TDs | 1 (0–3) | 2 (0–3) |
| Interceptions | 1 (0–2) | 1 (0–2) |
| Sacks taken | 2 (0–4) | 2 (0–4) |
| Rush attempts | 25 (17–34) | 26 (18–35) |
| Rushing yards | 110 (53–190) | 121 (59–204) |
| Rushing TDs | 1 (0–2) | 1 (0–2) |
| Field goals made | 2 (0–3) | 2 (0–3) |
Touchdowns per team
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 7.5% | 22.9% | 29.6% | 23.3% | 11.9% | 4.8% |
| NYG | 4.5% | 17.1% | 28.3% | 26.1% | 15.9% | 8.2% |
Players · median (80% range)
Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.
NO passing
| Player | Attempts | Completions | Yards | TDs (avg) | INTs (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough QB | 34 (25–44) | 23 (16–31) | 212 (128–309) | 1.4 | 0.9 |
NO rushing
| Player | Carries | Yards | Rush TDs (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne Jr. RB | 6 (3–10) | 23 (4–62) | 0.2 |
| Tyler Shough QB | 5 (2–8) | 21 (4–58) | 0.1 |
| Kendre Miller RB | 6 (3–9) | 19 (3–55) | 0.2 |
| Alvin Kamara RB | 5 (2–9) | 18 (2–52) | 0.2 |
NO receiving
| Player | Targets | Catches | Yards | Rec TDs (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave WR | 8 (4–12) | 5 (3–9) | 51 (14–107) | 0.3 |
| Devaughn Vele WR | 6 (3–9) | 4 (1–6) | 29 (4–73) | 0.2 |
| Juwan Johnson TE | 5 (2–8) | 4 (1–6) | 28 (4–73) | 0.2 |
| Alvin Kamara RB | 3 (1–5) | 2 (0–4) | 12 (0–45) | 0.1 |
| Noah Fant TE | 2 (1–5) | 2 (0–3) | 9 (0–40) | 0.1 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. RB | 2 (1–5) | 2 (0–4) | 9 (0–38) | 0.1 |
NYG passing
| Player | Attempts | Completions | Yards | TDs (avg) | INTs (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston QB | 33 (24–43) | 22 (16–30) | 215 (131–312) | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Gunner Olszewski WR | 0 (0–1) | 0 (0–0) | 0 (0–0) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NYG rushing
| Player | Carries | Yards | Rush TDs (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo RB | 9 (5–15) | 39 (12–87) | 0.4 |
| Jameis Winston QB | 6 (3–9) | 26 (5–66) | 0.2 |
| Najee Harris RB | 4 (2–7) | 14 (1–47) | 0.2 |
| Devin Singletary RB | 3 (1–6) | 11 (0–40) | 0.1 |
NYG receiving
| Player | Targets | Catches | Yards | Rec TDs (avg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely TE | 9 (5–13) | 6 (3–10) | 52 (16–108) | 0.4 |
| Malik Nabers WR | 8 (5–13) | 5 (3–9) | 51 (15–106) | 0.4 |
| Malachi Fields WR | 3 (1–6) | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–53) | 0.1 |
| Darnell Mooney WR | 3 (1–6) | 2 (0–4) | 13 (0–49) | 0.2 |
| Cam Skattebo RB | 3 (1–5) | 2 (0–4) | 12 (0–46) | 0.1 |
| Devin Singletary RB | 2 (0–4) | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–38) | 0.1 |
Touchdown scorers
Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.
| Player | Team | Anytime TD | 2+ TDs | First TD of the game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo RB | NYG | 40.7% | 8.9% | 10.1% |
| Isaiah Likely TE | NYG | 36.3% | 6.9% | 9.3% |
| Malik Nabers WR | NYG | 35.2% | 6.0% | 8.9% |
| Chris Olave WR | NO | 29.4% | 4.0% | 7.0% |
| Alvin Kamara RB | NO | 27.4% | 3.7% | 6.4% |
| Travis Etienne Jr. RB | NO | 27.1% | 3.7% | 6.5% |
| Devin Singletary RB | NYG | 21.7% | 2.2% | 4.9% |
| Kendre Miller RB | NO | 21.7% | 2.1% | 5.2% |
| Devaughn Vele WR | NO | 20.8% | 2.1% | 4.6% |
| Juwan Johnson TE | NO | 20.1% | 1.8% | 4.3% |
| Najee Harris RB | NYG | 15.8% | 1.2% | 3.6% |
| Jameis Winston QB | NYG | 15.2% | 1.1% | 3.5% |
| Darnell Mooney WR | NYG | 15.0% | 1.1% | 3.4% |
| Malachi Fields WR | NYG | 13.8% | 1.1% | 2.9% |
| Tyler Shough QB | NO | 12.2% | 0.6% | 2.8% |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB | NYG | 11.6% | 0.5% | 2.6% |
First touchdown by team: NO 46.0% · NYG 53.7% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.
Representative simulated games
Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.
Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: NO 21 – 24 NYG
By quarter: NO 0 / 0 / 7 / 14 · NYG 14 / 7 / 3 / 0
| Qtr | Offense | Start (yds to goal) | Result | Plays | Yards | Score after (NO–NYG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 65 | td | 1 | 65 | 0–7 |
| 1 | NO | 73 | punt | 3 | 0 | 0–7 |
| 1 | NYG | 77 | td | 6 | 77 | 0–14 |
| 1 | NO | 74 | punt | 3 | 10 | 0–14 |
| 1 | NYG | 73 | punt | 3 | 7 | 0–14 |
| 1 | NO | 70 | punt | 3 | 8 | 0–14 |
| 1 | NYG | 77 | punt | 3 | 16 | 0–14 |
| 1 | NO | 95 | punt | 3 | 5 | 0–14 |
| 1 | NYG | 69 | td | 12 | 69 | 0–21 |
| 2 | NO | 80 | punt | 3 | 9 | 0–21 |
| 2 | NYG | 72 | turnover | 2 | 40 | 0–21 |
| 2 | NO | 99 | punt | 3 | 45 | 0–21 |
| 2 | NYG | 86 | punt | 6 | 24 | 0–21 |
| 2 | NO | 63 | punt | 7 | 3 | 0–21 |
| 2 | NYG | 94 | end half | 8 | 30 | 0–21 |
| 2 | NO | 65 | downs | 6 | 14 | 0–21 |
| 3 | NYG | 49 | fg | 8 | 9 | 0–24 |
| 3 | NO | 60 | td | 11 | 60 | 7–24 |
| 3 | NYG | 81 | punt | 3 | 40 | 7–24 |
| 3 | NO | 99 | td | 9 | 99 | 14–24 |
| 4 | NYG | 76 | punt | 3 | 26 | 14–24 |
| 4 | NO | 83 | punt | 3 | 28 | 14–24 |
| 4 | NYG | 99 | punt | 6 | 28 | 14–24 |
| 4 | NO | 65 | td | 7 | 65 | 21–24 |
| 4 | NYG | 74 | punt | 3 | 23 | 21–24 |
| 4 | NO | 79 | end half | 3 | -1 | 21–24 |
Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: NO 30 – 33 NYG (OT)
By quarter: NO 3 / 17 / 7 / 3 / OT 0 · NYG 7 / 3 / 10 / 10 / OT 3
| Qtr | Offense | Start (yds to goal) | Result | Plays | Yards | Score after (NO–NYG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 72 | punt | 3 | 3 | 0–0 |
| 1 | NYG | 69 | punt | 4 | 0 | 0–0 |
| 1 | NO | 84 | punt | 3 | 1 | 0–0 |
| 1 | NYG | 55 | td | 2 | 55 | 0–7 |
| 1 | NO | 73 | fg | 10 | 72 | 3–7 |
| 1 | NYG | 69 | fg | 13 | 61 | 3–10 |
| 2 | NO | 62 | td | 9 | 62 | 10–10 |
| 2 | NYG | 70 | turnover | 3 | 15 | 10–10 |
| 2 | NO | 21 | td | 5 | 21 | 17–10 |
| 2 | NYG | 60 | fg miss | 7 | 22 | 17–10 |
| 2 | NO | 54 | fg | 3 | 39 | 20–10 |
| 2 | NYG | 78 | end half | 7 | 60 | 20–10 |
| 2 | NYG | 69 | td | 3 | 69 | 20–17 |
| 3 | NO | 84 | punt | 3 | 15 | 20–17 |
| 3 | NYG | 69 | fg | 14 | 57 | 20–20 |
| 3 | NO | 70 | td | 9 | 70 | 27–20 |
| 3 | NYG | 65 | td | 7 | 65 | 27–27 |
| 4 | NO | 63 | punt | 3 | 1 | 27–27 |
| 4 | NYG | 76 | fg | 10 | 59 | 27–30 |
| 4 | NO | 74 | fg | 11 | 56 | 30–30 |
| 4 | NYG | 65 | punt | 9 | 8 | 30–30 |
| 4 | NO | 37 | end half | 1 | -3 | 30–30 |
| OT | NYG | 65 | fg | 12 | 40 | 30–33 |
| OT | NO | 74 | punt | 4 | -6 | 30–33 |
Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: NO 13 – 16 NYG
By quarter: NO 0 / 10 / 3 / 0 · NYG 3 / 3 / 0 / 10
| Qtr | Offense | Start (yds to goal) | Result | Plays | Yards | Score after (NO–NYG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 81 | punt | 3 | 27 | 0–0 |
| 1 | NYG | 95 | punt | 3 | 24 | 0–0 |
| 1 | NO | 84 | punt | 5 | 1 | 0–0 |
| 1 | NYG | 40 | fg | 6 | 8 | 0–3 |
| 1 | NO | 74 | fg miss | 4 | 66 | 0–3 |
| 1 | NYG | 84 | turnover | 9 | 73 | 0–3 |
| 2 | NO | 99 | td | 9 | 99 | 7–3 |
| 2 | NYG | 72 | punt | 3 | 8 | 7–3 |
| 2 | NO | 74 | fg | 9 | 24 | 10–3 |
| 2 | NYG | 69 | fg | 7 | 27 | 10–6 |
| 2 | NO | 62 | end half | 3 | 10 | 10–6 |
| 2 | NYG | 64 | punt | 3 | 4 | 10–6 |
| 3 | NO | 89 | fg | 10 | 55 | 13–6 |
| 3 | NYG | 65 | fg | 15 | 53 | 13–9 |
| 4 | NO | 78 | punt | 3 | 2 | 13–9 |
| 4 | NYG | 69 | td | 6 | 69 | 13–16 |
| 4 | NO | 69 | punt | 5 | 5 | 13–16 |
| 4 | NYG | 81 | punt | 3 | 27 | 13–16 |
| 4 | NO | 81 | punt | 3 | 38 | 13–16 |
| 4 | NYG | 98 | punt | 3 | 1 | 13–16 |
| 4 | NO | 37 | end half | 1 | 28 | 13–16 |
Provenance
| Engine | nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow |
|---|---|
| Status | Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast |
| Runs | 10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000 |
| Generated | 2026-10-16 23:18 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-18 17:00 UTC |
| Seed | d53256bd · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine|eventId|inputHash) |
| Team strength | forecast receipt total.median 46 / margin.median 3 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means NYG 24.46 / NO 21.55 |
| Availability | injuries@2026-10-16T23:16:21Z+rosters@2026-10-16T23:16:21Z |
| Market | Not used as an input |
| Receipt | nfl-sim-v2:401873000:4f50840c8761efbc |
Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.