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NFL · CHI @ ATL · Simulation

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

CHI 24 — 24 ATL · win chance CHI 52.8% · ATL 44.5% · total 48

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

50.9%CHI win in the simulated games

48.6%ATL win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.6%game goes to overtime

CHI 24 – 24 ATLmedian score · averages 24.42 – 23.96

48median total · 80% of games 32–65

CHI by 1median margin · 80% range: CHI by 18 to ATL by 17

46.2%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.8% · 6.9%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: ATL points minus CHI points (below 0 means CHI won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-1). Range shown -51 to 48.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (48). Range shown 8 to 108.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
CHI	13	24	37	24.42
ATL	12	24	36	23.96

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	CHI median (80%)	ATL median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	CHI wins it	ATL wins it	Level
Q1	6 (0–10)	6 (0–11)	10 (3–18)	41.5%	41.6%	16.9%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	44.8%	42.4%	12.9%
Q3	6 (0–13)	6 (0–12)	10 (3–19)	41.7%	40.2%	18.1%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–22)	42.8%	41.0%	16.2%
1st half	13 (3–21)	12 (3–21)	24 (13–37)	47.6%	46.1%	6.3%
2nd half	11 (3–21)	10 (3–21)	23 (12–35)	47.3%	45.1%	7.5%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	CHI	ATL
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	63 (50–76)	62 (50–75)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	34 (25–44)
Completions	23 (16–30)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	217 (134–312)	218 (134–317)
Passing TDs	2 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	26 (18–35)	25 (18–35)
Rushing yards	126 (64–210)	122 (61–206)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
CHI	4.2%	15.9%	27.6%	27.1%	16.4%	8.9%
ATL	4.6%	16.7%	27.9%	27.1%	15.7%	8.0%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

CHI passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Caleb Williams QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–30)	217 (134–312)	1.7	0.7

CHI rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
D'Andre Swift RB	11 (7–17)	51 (17–103)	0.5
Caleb Williams QB	9 (5–14)	46 (16–97)	0.3
Roschon Johnson RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–27)	0.1
Luther Burden III WR	1 (0–3)	2 (0–19)	0.1

CHI receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Luther Burden III WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	37 (7–85)	0.3
Rome Odunze WR	6 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	33 (5–80)	0.3
Kalif Raymond WR	5 (2–8)	4 (1–6)	28 (4–71)	0.2
Colston Loveland TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	25 (3–68)	0.3
D'Andre Swift RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–49)	0.2
Roschon Johnson RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–34)	0.1

ATL passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Michael Penix Jr. QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–30)	218 (134–317)	1.6	0.7

ATL rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Bijan Robinson RB	13 (8–19)	66 (25–129)	0.5
Brian Robinson Jr. RB	6 (3–10)	24 (5–62)	0.3
Michael Penix Jr. QB	4 (2–8)	16 (2–47)	0.1
Drake London WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–1)	0.0

ATL receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Drake London WR	9 (5–14)	6 (3–10)	64 (22–127)	0.5
Bijan Robinson RB	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	30 (5–76)	0.3
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	23 (2–63)	0.2
Jahan Dotson WR	4 (2–7)	2 (1–5)	20 (0–62)	0.2
Austin Hooper TE	2 (1–5)	2 (0–3)	9 (0–41)	0.1
Zachariah Branch WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–35)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Bijan Robinson RB	ATL	57.9%	19.3%	15.6%
D'Andre Swift RB	CHI	47.0%	12.8%	11.6%
Drake London WR	ATL	37.5%	7.4%	8.7%
Luther Burden III WR	CHI	31.6%	5.1%	7.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. RB	ATL	26.8%	3.3%	5.4%
Caleb Williams QB	CHI	26.6%	3.3%	6.0%
Rome Odunze WR	CHI	26.2%	3.5%	5.7%
Kalif Raymond WR	CHI	22.8%	2.5%	4.9%
Colston Loveland TE	CHI	22.7%	2.4%	5.2%
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE	ATL	20.0%	1.7%	4.2%
Jahan Dotson WR	ATL	18.9%	1.8%	4.1%
Roschon Johnson RB	CHI	16.9%	1.5%	3.5%
Austin Hooper TE	ATL	11.7%	0.8%	2.3%
Michael Penix Jr. QB	ATL	11.2%	0.7%	2.3%
Zachariah Branch WR	ATL	9.3%	0.4%	1.8%
Cole Kmet TE	CHI	8.7%	0.5%	1.7%

First touchdown by team: CHI 50.6% · ATL 49.3% · no offensive touchdown 0.1%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: CHI 24 – 24 ATL (OT)

By quarter: CHI 7 / 10 / 0 / 7 / OT 0 · ATL 14 / 0 / 3 / 7 / OT 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CHI–ATL)
1	ATL	73	td	2	73	0–7
1	CHI	67	td	2	67	7–7
1	ATL	83	punt	9	7	7–7
1	CHI	69	punt	3	18	7–7
1	ATL	63	td	9	63	7–14
1	CHI	11	fg	4	2	10–14
2	ATL	71	punt	3	25	10–14
2	CHI	84	td	7	84	17–14
2	ATL	78	punt	4	13	17–14
2	CHI	75	punt	3	2	17–14
2	ATL	85	punt	4	3	17–14
2	CHI	65	punt	4	8	17–14
2	ATL	75	punt	3	17	17–14
2	CHI	61	punt	3	28	17–14
2	ATL	99	fg miss	5	63	17–14
2	CHI	87	punt	8	7	17–14
3	ATL	69	turnover	4	49	17–14
3	CHI	80	punt	4	4	17–14
3	ATL	62	fg	6	61	17–17
3	CHI	74	punt	3	4	17–17
3	ATL	75	turnover	9	-10	17–17
4	CHI	2	td	7	2	24–17
4	ATL	65	punt	5	-1	24–17
4	CHI	78	punt	3	21	24–17
4	ATL	77	turnover	1	21	24–17
4	CHI	50	punt	5	5	24–17
4	ATL	99	td	5	99	24–24
4	CHI	65	end half	1	53	24–24
OT	ATL	74	punt	10	39	24–24
OT	CHI	99	punt	5	11	24–24
OT	ATL	57	punt	5	0	24–24
OT	CHI	75	end half	2	51	24–24

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: CHI 33 – 32 ATL

By quarter: CHI 7 / 6 / 6 / 14 · ATL 14 / 3 / 8 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CHI–ATL)
1	ATL	81	td	4	81	0–7
1	CHI	77	td	6	77	7–7
1	ATL	84	td	3	84	7–14
1	CHI	72	downs	6	27	7–14
1	ATL	55	downs	10	7	7–14
2	CHI	53	td	5	53	13–14
2	ATL	67	punt	3	9	13–14
2	CHI	98	punt	3	29	13–14
2	ATL	92	fg	8	85	13–17
2	CHI	76	fg miss	11	62	13–17
2	CHI	65	punt	3	8	13–17
3	ATL	91	punt	3	6	13–17
3	CHI	51	td	12	51	19–17
3	ATL	60	td	3	60	19–25
3	CHI	65	punt	3	7	19–25
3	ATL	94	punt	3	5	19–25
3	CHI	30	td	8	30	26–25
4	ATL	75	punt	5	37	26–25
4	CHI	99	td	7	99	33–25
4	ATL	72	td	11	72	33–32
4	CHI	74	turnover	2	0	33–32
4	ATL	26	end half	7	-2	33–32

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: CHI 17 – 15 ATL

By quarter: CHI 0 / 10 / 0 / 7 · ATL 3 / 3 / 3 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CHI–ATL)
1	ATL	72	fg	9	49	0–3
1	CHI	69	punt	8	1	0–3
1	ATL	70	punt	5	5	0–3
1	CHI	90	td	3	90	7–3
2	ATL	77	fg	9	39	7–6
2	CHI	59	fg	11	58	10–6
2	ATL	75	end half	6	24	10–6
2	CHI	65	turnover	2	21	10–6
3	ATL	70	punt	3	5	10–6
3	CHI	90	punt	3	1	10–6
3	ATL	41	fg	9	37	10–9
3	CHI	77	punt	3	21	10–9
3	ATL	82	punt	3	-2	10–9
3	CHI	54	turnover	6	14	10–9
3	ATL	46	fg	9	38	10–12
4	CHI	54	punt	6	1	10–12
4	ATL	79	punt	3	7	10–12
4	CHI	67	td	1	67	17–12
4	ATL	65	fg	12	45	17–15
4	CHI	65	end half	1	-1	17–15

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-16 23:18 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-18 17:00 UTC
Seed	3f14cdca · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 48 / margin.median 0 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means ATL 23.92 / CHI 24
Availability	injuries@2026-10-16T23:16:21Z+rosters@2026-10-16T23:16:21Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872999:9662bf49ff464613

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.