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NFL · CAR @ PHI · Simulation

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

CAR 18 — 26 PHI · win chance CAR 36.4% · PHI 60.9% · total 44

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

31.5%CAR win in the simulated games

68.1%PHI win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.1%game goes to overtime

CAR 18 – 24 PHImedian score · averages 18.57 – 24.97

43median total · 80% of games 28–60

PHI by 7median margin · 80% range: CAR by 11 to PHI by 24

42.2%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.2% · 6.3%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: PHI points minus CAR points (below 0 means CAR won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (7). Range shown -45 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (43). Range shown 0 to 108.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
CAR	7	18	31	18.57
PHI	13	24	38	24.97

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	CAR median (80%)	PHI median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	CAR wins it	PHI wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	9 (3–17)	32.5%	49.2%	18.3%
Q2	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	13 (5–21)	33.6%	53.4%	13.0%
Q3	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	9 (3–17)	31.3%	49.6%	19.1%
Q4	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	33.0%	50.2%	16.7%
1st half	9 (0–17)	13 (3–23)	22 (12–34)	34.0%	59.1%	6.8%
2nd half	8 (0–17)	12 (3–21)	20 (10–33)	33.0%	58.9%	8.1%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	CAR	PHI
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	61 (49–75)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	32 (24–42)
Completions	23 (16–31)	22 (15–29)
Passing yards	198 (114–292)	218 (134–316)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (16–33)	27 (19–36)
Rushing yards	105 (51–181)	117 (57–198)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
CAR	12.1%	28.5%	30.5%	19.3%	7.3%	2.2%
PHI	4.6%	16.6%	27.5%	26.2%	15.8%	9.4%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

CAR passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Bryce Young QB	30 (22–40)	21 (14–28)	175 (98–265)	1.1	1.0

CAR rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Chuba Hubbard RB	18 (12–25)	78 (33–145)	0.6
Bryce Young QB	5 (2–8)	19 (3–52)	0.1

CAR receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Tetairoa McMillan WR	8 (5–13)	5 (3–9)	46 (12–98)	0.3
Jalen Coker WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–8)	34 (7–81)	0.2
Darren Waller TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	17 (0–55)	0.1
Tommy Tremble TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–43)	0.1
John Metchie III WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–3)	8 (0–38)	0.1
Chuba Hubbard RB	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)	8 (0–36)	0.1

PHI passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Tanner McKee QB	32 (24–42)	22 (15–29)	218 (134–316)	1.7	0.7

PHI rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Dameon Pierce RB	21 (14–29)	84 (37–155)	0.8
Tanner McKee QB	4 (1–7)	15 (1–48)	0.1
Hollywood Brown WR	2 (0–4)	6 (0–30)	0.1

PHI receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
DeVonta Smith WR	8 (4–12)	5 (3–9)	52 (15–109)	0.4
Dontayvion Wicks WR	5 (2–9)	3 (1–6)	31 (4–80)	0.3
Dallas Goedert TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	28 (4–73)	0.3
Makai Lemon WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	22 (2–64)	0.2
Darius Cooper WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–3)	12 (0–48)	0.1
Dameon Pierce RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–3)	10 (0–44)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Dameon Pierce RB	PHI	62.8%	23.6%	21.2%
Chuba Hubbard RB	CAR	48.4%	13.0%	13.5%
DeVonta Smith WR	PHI	34.5%	6.1%	9.4%
Tetairoa McMillan WR	CAR	25.4%	3.4%	6.2%
Dallas Goedert TE	PHI	23.6%	2.7%	5.7%
Dontayvion Wicks WR	PHI	23.3%	2.6%	5.9%
Makai Lemon WR	PHI	20.6%	2.3%	5.4%
Jalen Coker WR	CAR	19.7%	2.0%	4.5%
Darren Waller TE	CAR	13.0%	1.0%	3.1%
Darius Cooper WR	PHI	12.9%	0.9%	3.0%
Zach Ertz TE	PHI	11.8%	0.6%	2.7%
Tommy Tremble TE	CAR	11.0%	0.4%	2.6%
Bryce Young QB	CAR	10.7%	0.6%	2.4%
John Metchie III WR	CAR	9.1%	0.4%	2.1%
Tanner McKee QB	PHI	8.8%	0.4%	2.1%
Ja'Tavion Sanders TE	CAR	8.1%	0.4%	1.9%

First touchdown by team: CAR 40.4% · PHI 59.1% · no offensive touchdown 0.5%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: CAR 18 – 25 PHI

By quarter: CAR 0 / 6 / 6 / 6 · PHI 7 / 8 / 7 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CAR–PHI)
1	PHI	75	punt	3	6	0–0
1	CAR	69	downs	11	14	0–0
1	PHI	45	td	11	45	0–7
1	CAR	70	fg miss	7	36	0–7
1	PHI	58	punt	4	14	0–7
2	CAR	88	punt	3	16	0–7
2	PHI	74	td	8	74	0–15
2	CAR	65	td	7	65	6–15
2	PHI	71	punt	3	-4	6–15
2	CAR	63	punt	3	31	6–15
2	PHI	99	punt	3	38	6–15
2	CAR	82	end half	5	-1	6–15
2	CAR	68	td	8	68	12–15
3	PHI	73	td	4	73	12–22
3	CAR	77	punt	6	21	12–22
3	PHI	65	turnover	2	12	12–22
3	CAR	47	downs	5	39	12–22
3	PHI	92	punt	5	47	12–22
4	CAR	96	downs	6	72	12–22
4	PHI	76	downs	4	4	12–22
4	CAR	33	fg	6	18	15–22
4	PHI	72	punt	5	9	15–22
4	CAR	94	turnover	3	54	15–22
4	PHI	42	fg	8	22	15–25
4	CAR	65	fg	10	39	18–25

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: CAR 27 – 34 PHI

By quarter: CAR 0 / 3 / 14 / 10 · PHI 7 / 10 / 7 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CAR–PHI)
1	CAR	65	punt	6	-1	0–0
1	PHI	70	punt	8	6	0–0
1	CAR	74	punt	3	20	0–0
1	PHI	30	td	7	30	0–7
1	CAR	70	turnover	1	-17	0–7
1	PHI	44	td	10	44	0–14
2	CAR	65	punt	5	12	0–14
2	PHI	93	punt	3	8	0–14
2	CAR	43	punt	3	2	0–14
2	PHI	92	turnover	3	26	0–14
2	CAR	45	fg	6	28	3–14
2	PHI	65	fg	9	41	3–17
2	PHI	74	punt	3	3	3–17
3	CAR	82	td	9	82	10–17
3	PHI	72	td	3	72	10–24
3	CAR	67	turnover	3	52	10–24
3	PHI	85	turnover	3	39	10–24
3	CAR	48	td	3	48	17–24
3	PHI	63	fg	7	42	17–27
4	CAR	61	td	7	61	24–27
4	PHI	73	punt	4	-1	24–27
4	CAR	84	fg	13	61	27–27
4	PHI	64	td	6	64	27–34
4	CAR	87	downs	4	47	27–34
4	PHI	60	end half	3	-1	27–34

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: CAR 10 – 17 PHI

By quarter: CAR 0 / 3 / 7 / 0 · PHI 7 / 7 / 0 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CAR–PHI)
1	PHI	65	punt	3	23	0–0
1	CAR	99	punt	3	7	0–0
1	PHI	50	td	7	50	0–7
1	CAR	67	fg	14	66	3–7
2	PHI	72	punt	5	-5	3–7
2	CAR	54	punt	3	10	3–7
2	PHI	79	punt	3	38	3–7
2	CAR	86	punt	3	-5	3–7
2	PHI	67	td	8	67	3–14
2	CAR	66	turnover	5	31	3–14
2	PHI	69	end half	3	11	3–14
2	CAR	73	downs	7	14	3–14
3	PHI	41	fg miss	6	16	3–14
3	CAR	57	punt	3	2	3–14
3	PHI	93	punt	3	29	3–14
3	CAR	9	td	4	9	10–14
3	PHI	75	punt	3	0	10–14
3	CAR	60	turnover	8	3	10–14
4	PHI	23	fg	4	14	10–17
4	CAR	74	downs	11	14	10–17
4	PHI	30	end half	1	9	10–17

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-17 14:24 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-18 17:00 UTC
Seed	862e3cb6 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 44 / margin.median 7 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means PHI 25.44 / CAR 18.47
Availability	injuries@2026-10-17T12:56:31Z+rosters@2026-10-17T12:56:31Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872998:81a7148b0c90afbf

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.