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NFL · BAL @ CLE · Simulation

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

BAL 23 — 20 CLE · win chance BAL 61.9% · CLE 35.0% · total 43

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

58.0%BAL win in the simulated games

41.6%CLE win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.4%game goes to overtime

BAL 23 – 20 CLEmedian score · averages 23.18 – 20.37

43median total · 80% of games 27–60

BAL by 3median margin · 80% range: BAL by 20 to CLE by 15

43.9%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.6% · 6.7%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: CLE points minus BAL points (below 0 means BAL won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-3). Range shown -60 to 48.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (43). Range shown 4 to 108.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
BAL	10	23	36	23.18
CLE	9	20	33	20.37

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	BAL median (80%)	CLE median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	BAL wins it	CLE wins it	Level
Q1	6 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–17)	44.3%	37.2%	18.5%
Q2	7 (0–14)	6 (0–14)	13 (5–21)	47.9%	39.5%	12.6%
Q3	6 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	9 (3–17)	44.1%	36.2%	19.7%
Q4	7 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–21)	46.2%	37.1%	16.8%
1st half	11 (3–21)	10 (3–20)	22 (12–34)	52.4%	40.6%	7.0%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	10 (0–18)	20 (10–33)	51.9%	39.8%	8.3%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	BAL	CLE
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	63 (50–76)	62 (50–75)
Pass attempts	33 (24–43)	34 (25–44)
Completions	23 (17–31)	22 (15–29)
Passing yards	211 (130–308)	204 (120–299)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	26 (18–35)	25 (17–34)
Rushing yards	117 (57–197)	110 (53–189)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
BAL	5.9%	19.5%	29.7%	25.4%	13.0%	6.6%
CLE	9.7%	24.3%	30.7%	22.1%	9.5%	3.7%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

BAL passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Tyler Huntley QB	33 (24–43)	23 (17–31)	211 (130–308)	1.5	0.8

BAL rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Derrick Henry RB	18 (11–25)	75 (31–140)	0.6
Tyler Huntley QB	5 (2–8)	18 (3–51)	0.1
Justice Hill RB	2 (1–5)	8 (0–33)	0.1
Zay Flowers WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–6)	0.0

BAL receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Zay Flowers WR	10 (6–15)	7 (4–12)	70 (26–131)	0.5
Mark Andrews TE	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	37 (9–83)	0.3
Rashod Bateman WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	27 (3–71)	0.2
Justice Hill RB	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	9 (0–38)	0.1
Devontez Walker WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–37)	0.1
Derrick Henry RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–35)	0.1

CLE passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Deshaun Watson QB	34 (25–44)	22 (15–29)	204 (120–299)	1.3	1.0

CLE rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Quinshon Judkins RB	14 (8–20)	53 (19–109)	0.4
Deshaun Watson QB	9 (5–14)	43 (13–93)	0.3
Jaleel McLaughlin RB	0 (0–2)	0 (0–10)	0.0
KC Concepcion WR	0 (0–2)	0 (0–9)	0.0

CLE receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Denzel Boston WR	6 (3–10)	4 (1–7)	37 (6–87)	0.3
Harold Fannin Jr. TE	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	31 (5–77)	0.2
KC Concepcion WR	6 (3–10)	4 (1–7)	29 (4–73)	0.2
Jerry Jeudy WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–5)	22 (1–65)	0.2
Quinshon Judkins RB	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	20 (2–60)	0.2
Isaiah Bond WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–50)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Derrick Henry RB	BAL	53.5%	16.3%	15.7%
Quinshon Judkins RB	CLE	47.3%	12.0%	13.5%
Zay Flowers WR	BAL	38.6%	8.0%	11.0%
Mark Andrews TE	BAL	29.7%	4.4%	7.7%
Denzel Boston WR	CLE	23.5%	2.6%	5.7%
Deshaun Watson QB	CLE	23.4%	2.3%	5.7%
KC Concepcion WR	CLE	22.4%	2.5%	5.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE	CLE	21.7%	2.4%	5.1%
Rashod Bateman WR	BAL	20.9%	1.9%	5.0%
Jerry Jeudy WR	CLE	18.4%	1.6%	4.5%
Justice Hill RB	BAL	18.0%	1.4%	4.6%
Tyler Huntley QB	BAL	12.1%	0.6%	3.1%
Isaiah Bond WR	CLE	11.7%	0.6%	2.8%
Devontez Walker WR	BAL	9.0%	0.3%	2.1%
Elijah Sarratt WR	BAL	7.6%	0.3%	1.8%
Josh Cuevas TE	BAL	5.2%	0.1%	1.2%

First touchdown by team: BAL 54.1% · CLE 45.4% · no offensive touchdown 0.6%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: BAL 23 – 20 CLE (OT)

By quarter: BAL 3 / 7 / 0 / 10 / OT 3 · CLE 7 / 7 / 3 / 3 / OT 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BAL–CLE)
1	CLE	65	td	3	65	0–7
1	BAL	65	fg	13	52	3–7
1	CLE	85	turnover	7	15	3–7
1	BAL	33	td	11	33	10–7
2	CLE	61	punt	3	14	10–7
2	BAL	91	punt	3	23	10–7
2	CLE	56	td	8	56	10–14
2	BAL	61	end half	8	-1	10–14
2	BAL	65	turnover	2	7	10–14
3	CLE	61	turnover	5	26	10–14
3	BAL	90	turnover	10	-3	10–14
3	CLE	14	fg	7	7	10–17
3	BAL	47	fg	11	5	13–17
4	CLE	71	turnover	6	-1	13–17
4	BAL	36	fg miss	6	27	13–17
4	CLE	70	punt	3	-6	13–17
4	BAL	72	td	3	72	20–17
4	CLE	65	fg	9	50	20–20
4	BAL	72	end half	6	-1	20–20
OT	CLE	68	punt	3	9	20–20
OT	BAL	84	fg	4	33	23–20

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: BAL 31 – 29 CLE

By quarter: BAL 7 / 7 / 7 / 10 · CLE 7 / 3 / 3 / 16

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BAL–CLE)
1	BAL	71	opp td	13	-12	0–7
1	BAL	65	fg miss	6	35	0–7
1	CLE	62	downs	4	23	0–7
1	BAL	45	td	2	45	7–7
1	CLE	75	punt	3	7	7–7
1	BAL	79	punt	7	24	7–7
2	CLE	96	punt	3	9	7–7
2	BAL	51	td	5	51	14–7
2	CLE	67	punt	6	5	14–7
2	BAL	86	punt	5	-1	14–7
2	CLE	49	fg	12	9	14–10
2	CLE	90	punt	3	15	14–10
3	BAL	61	td	5	61	21–10
3	CLE	64	punt	3	38	21–10
3	BAL	99	punt	3	14	21–10
3	CLE	63	fg	6	34	21–13
3	BAL	80	punt	5	0	21–13
3	CLE	68	td	1	68	21–20
4	BAL	75	td	10	75	28–20
4	CLE	66	td	13	66	28–26
4	BAL	65	fg	8	63	31–26
4	CLE	69	fg	7	46	31–29

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: BAL 15 – 12 CLE

By quarter: BAL 6 / 3 / 3 / 3 · CLE 0 / 3 / 3 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BAL–CLE)
1	BAL	67	fg	7	3	3–0
1	CLE	65	punt	4	24	3–0
1	BAL	99	punt	3	32	3–0
1	CLE	99	punt	3	22	3–0
1	BAL	48	fg	6	21	6–0
1	CLE	67	fg	9	59	6–3
2	BAL	65	punt	6	18	6–3
2	CLE	99	punt	3	21	6–3
2	BAL	90	fg	14	85	9–3
2	CLE	77	downs	6	54	9–3
2	BAL	77	punt	3	33	9–3
2	CLE	88	end half	3	42	9–3
2	CLE	65	fg	8	55	9–6
3	BAL	55	fg	7	19	12–6
3	CLE	80	punt	3	21	12–6
3	BAL	76	fg	10	70	15–6
4	CLE	73	downs	4	64	15–6
4	BAL	96	punt	3	6	15–6
4	CLE	50	td	8	50	15–12
4	BAL	65	punt	5	5	15–12
4	CLE	79	turnover	5	5	15–12
4	BAL	70	end half	1	48	15–12

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-16 23:18 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-18 17:00 UTC
Seed	fcaf119e · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 43 / margin.median -3 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means CLE 20.09 / BAL 23.01
Availability	injuries@2026-10-16T23:16:21Z+rosters@2026-10-16T23:16:21Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872997:bc61837dc9430351

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.