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NFL · HOU @ JAX · Simulation

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

HOU 20 — 24 JAX · win chance HOU 35.0% · JAX 62.1% · total 44

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

39.1%HOU win in the simulated games

60.5%JAX win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

2.9%game goes to overtime

HOU 20 – 24 JAXmedian score · averages 20.28 – 23.87

44median total · 80% of games 28–61

JAX by 4median margin · 80% range: HOU by 14 to JAX by 21

44.3%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.9% · 6.2%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: JAX points minus HOU points (below 0 means HOU won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (4). Range shown -51 to 51.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (44). Range shown 4 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
HOU	9	20	33	20.28
JAX	12	24	37	23.87

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	HOU median (80%)	JAX median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	HOU wins it	JAX wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–17)	37.2%	45.4%	17.4%
Q2	6 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–21)	37.6%	49.1%	13.3%
Q3	3 (0–10)	6 (0–11)	9 (3–17)	35.3%	45.5%	19.3%
Q4	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	36.3%	46.2%	17.5%
1st half	10 (3–20)	13 (3–21)	23 (12–34)	39.3%	53.6%	7.0%
2nd half	10 (0–18)	10 (3–21)	20 (10–33)	38.6%	53.0%	8.4%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	HOU	JAX
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (49–75)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–43)
Completions	23 (16–30)	22 (16–30)
Passing yards	208 (122–304)	216 (131–311)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–34)	26 (18–35)
Rushing yards	106 (50–185)	118 (58–201)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
HOU	9.3%	25.4%	30.6%	21.5%	9.8%	3.4%
JAX	5.5%	18.0%	28.4%	25.7%	14.7%	7.7%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

HOU passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
C.J. Stroud QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–30)	208 (122–304)	1.3	1.0

HOU rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Woody Marks RB	13 (8–19)	49 (17–104)	0.4
C.J. Stroud QB	7 (4–12)	31 (8–73)	0.2
British Brooks RB	1 (0–3)	1 (0–17)	0.0
Jaylin Noel WR	1 (0–3)	1 (0–16)	0.0

HOU receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Nico Collins WR	7 (3–11)	5 (2–8)	40 (8–90)	0.3
Xavier Hutchinson WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–5)	23 (1–65)	0.2
Dalton Schultz TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	21 (1–61)	0.2
Jayden Higgins WR	3 (1–6)	2 (1–4)	16 (0–53)	0.1
Kayshon Boutte WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–49)	0.1
Jaylin Noel WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–50)	0.1

JAX passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Trevor Lawrence QB	30 (22–39)	20 (14–27)	194 (114–284)	1.4	0.7

JAX rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Bhayshul Tuten RB	12 (7–18)	51 (18–107)	0.5
Trevor Lawrence QB	6 (3–9)	24 (5–61)	0.2
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB	4 (2–7)	14 (1–44)	0.1
Ameer Abdullah RB	1 (0–3)	1 (0–17)	0.0

JAX receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Parker Washington WR	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	46 (11–99)	0.4
Brenton Strange TE	6 (3–10)	4 (2–8)	37 (8–86)	0.3
Jakobi Meyers WR	4 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	26 (2–70)	0.2
Brian Thomas Jr. WR	4 (1–7)	2 (1–4)	17 (0–56)	0.2
Josh Cameron WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–45)	0.1
Bhayshul Tuten RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–37)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Bhayshul Tuten RB	JAX	43.0%	10.1%	11.6%
Woody Marks RB	HOU	41.1%	8.8%	10.8%
Parker Washington WR	JAX	31.3%	4.9%	7.9%
Brenton Strange TE	JAX	26.4%	3.8%	6.8%
Nico Collins WR	HOU	23.6%	2.9%	5.8%
Jakobi Meyers WR	JAX	21.0%	2.1%	5.1%
Xavier Hutchinson WR	HOU	19.6%	1.8%	4.9%
C.J. Stroud QB	HOU	17.8%	1.6%	3.9%
Brian Thomas Jr. WR	JAX	17.7%	1.3%	4.4%
Dalton Schultz TE	HOU	15.9%	1.2%	3.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB	JAX	15.5%	1.1%	3.6%
Trevor Lawrence QB	JAX	15.3%	1.1%	3.4%
Jaylin Noel WR	HOU	13.5%	1.0%	3.3%
Jayden Higgins WR	HOU	13.2%	0.8%	3.0%
Josh Cameron WR	JAX	12.8%	0.6%	3.3%
Kayshon Boutte WR	HOU	11.8%	0.5%	2.6%

First touchdown by team: HOU 44.5% · JAX 55.0% · no offensive touchdown 0.5%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: HOU 20 – 24 JAX

By quarter: HOU 0 / 7 / 0 / 13 · JAX 0 / 0 / 3 / 21

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (HOU–JAX)
1	HOU	76	punt	3	-10	0–0
1	JAX	57	punt	15	7	0–0
1	HOU	74	punt	3	6	0–0
1	JAX	63	punt	9	0	0–0
2	HOU	89	punt	4	24	0–0
2	JAX	73	punt	3	2	0–0
2	HOU	75	punt	4	3	0–0
2	JAX	52	turnover	2	39	0–0
2	HOU	99	punt	3	41	0–0
2	JAX	80	punt	7	4	0–0
2	HOU	49	td	11	49	7–0
2	JAX	68	end half	2	-1	7–0
2	JAX	65	fg	2	64	7–3
3	HOU	85	turnover	12	5	7–3
3	JAX	30	downs	9	3	7–3
3	HOU	67	fg	10	53	10–3
4	JAX	72	td	3	72	10–10
4	HOU	77	td	1	77	17–10
4	JAX	70	fg	7	57	17–13
4	HOU	65	fg	3	37	20–13
4	JAX	65	fg	4	31	20–16
4	HOU	65	turnover	3	8	20–16
4	JAX	43	td	4	43	20–24
4	HOU	70	fg miss	13	32	20–24
4	JAX	99	end half	3	26	20–24

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: HOU 28 – 33 JAX

By quarter: HOU 14 / 7 / 7 / 0 · JAX 10 / 3 / 0 / 20

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (HOU–JAX)
1	HOU	82	td	7	82	7–0
1	JAX	60	fg	7	40	7–3
1	HOU	82	punt	3	31	7–3
1	JAX	99	td	11	99	7–10
1	HOU	69	td	5	69	14–10
1	JAX	65	punt	6	-10	14–10
2	HOU	54	punt	5	11	14–10
2	JAX	96	punt	3	8	14–10
2	HOU	57	td	8	57	21–10
2	JAX	65	fg	10	23	21–13
2	HOU	65	end half	3	18	21–13
2	JAX	65	turnover	4	32	21–13
3	HOU	67	td	11	67	28–13
3	JAX	68	punt	6	8	28–13
3	HOU	77	punt	6	9	28–13
3	JAX	78	td	5	78	28–20
4	HOU	65	punt	4	7	28–20
4	JAX	51	td	2	51	28–27
4	HOU	65	punt	3	-1	28–27
4	JAX	72	punt	5	17	28–27
4	HOU	83	downs	7	82	28–27
4	JAX	93	downs	4	68	28–27
4	HOU	80	punt	3	2	28–27
4	JAX	74	td	13	74	28–33

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: HOU 12 – 16 JAX

By quarter: HOU 0 / 0 / 0 / 12 · JAX 7 / 0 / 3 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (HOU–JAX)
1	JAX	63	td	3	63	0–7
1	HOU	72	end half	1	10	0–7
2	HOU	78	punt	3	36	0–7
3	JAX	99	punt	3	16	0–7
3	HOU	44	turnover	5	0	0–7
3	JAX	75	fg	5	74	0–10
3	HOU	69	punt	8	27	0–10
3	JAX	99	punt	3	20	0–10
3	HOU	20	td	6	20	6–10
4	JAX	73	downs	10	72	6–10
4	HOU	99	punt	5	4	6–10
4	JAX	25	td	7	25	6–16
4	HOU	65	punt	3	0	6–16
4	JAX	59	punt	3	17	6–16
4	HOU	94	td	7	94	12–16
4	JAX	70	end half	3	8	12–16

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-17 14:24 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-18 13:30 UTC
Seed	5050cd19 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 44 / margin.median 3 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means JAX 23.5 / HOU 20.41
Availability	injuries@2026-10-17T12:56:31Z+rosters@2026-10-17T12:56:31Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872996:dec4680410c2d908

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.