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NFL · BUF @ LAR · Simulation

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

BUF 24 — 29 LAR · win chance BUF 39.8% · LAR 57.5% · total 53

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

38.1%BUF win in the simulated games

61.6%LAR win in the simulated games

0.3%tie after overtime

3.3%game goes to overtime

BUF 24 – 28 LARmedian score · averages 24.57 – 28.6

53median total · 80% of games 36–71

LAR by 4median margin · 80% range: BUF by 14 to LAR by 22

46.2%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.7% · 6.7%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: LAR points minus BUF points (below 0 means BUF won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (4). Range shown -54 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (53). Range shown 0 to 124.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
BUF	13	24	37	24.57
LAR	16	28	41	28.6

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	BUF median (80%)	LAR median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	BUF wins it	LAR wins it	Level
Q1	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	35.9%	47.5%	16.6%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–15)	16 (7–24)	38.2%	49.6%	12.3%
Q3	6 (0–11)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	36.0%	47.2%	16.8%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	37.7%	47.2%	15.1%
1st half	13 (3–21)	14 (6–24)	27 (16–40)	38.5%	55.2%	6.3%
2nd half	11 (3–21)	14 (6–23)	25 (13–38)	39.1%	53.5%	7.5%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	BUF	LAR
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (49–75)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (25–43)
Completions	24 (17–32)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	228 (142–329)	239 (150–337)
Passing TDs	2 (0–3)	2 (0–4)
Interceptions	0 (0–2)	0 (0–1)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (17–33)	26 (18–36)
Rushing yards	120 (59–203)	135 (70–221)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–3)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
BUF	4.1%	14.8%	25.3%	27.8%	17.9%	10.1%
LAR	1.8%	9.1%	20.2%	28.0%	22.6%	18.3%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

BUF passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Josh Allen QB	30 (22–40)	21 (15–29)	201 (122–298)	1.5	0.6

BUF rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
James Cook III RB	13 (8–19)	65 (25–126)	0.6
Josh Allen QB	7 (4–12)	30 (8–72)	0.3
Ty Johnson RB	1 (0–3)	1 (0–17)	0.1
Ray Davis RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–15)	0.1

BUF receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Khalil Shakir WR	7 (3–10)	5 (2–8)	38 (8–87)	0.3
Dalton Kincaid TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	32 (4–79)	0.3
DJ Moore WR	5 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	31 (5–77)	0.3
Keon Coleman WR	4 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	28 (3–71)	0.2
Ty Johnson RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–50)	0.1
James Cook III RB	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–40)	0.1

LAR passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Matthew Stafford QB	31 (23–41)	21 (15–28)	225 (138–322)	1.9	0.5

LAR rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Kyren Williams RB	12 (7–18)	61 (22–120)	0.6
Blake Corum RB	7 (3–11)	29 (7–73)	0.3
Matthew Stafford QB	4 (2–7)	15 (2–46)	0.1
Ronnie Rivers RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–25)	0.1

LAR receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Puka Nacua WR	8 (5–13)	6 (3–9)	60 (19–118)	0.5
Davante Adams WR	7 (4–11)	4 (2–7)	45 (10–102)	0.4
Kyren Williams RB	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	24 (2–66)	0.3
Tyler Higbee TE	4 (1–6)	3 (1–5)	21 (0–62)	0.2
Konata Mumpfield WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–41)	0.1
Colby Parkinson TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–39)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Kyren Williams RB	LAR	58.2%	20.0%	14.4%
James Cook III RB	BUF	51.9%	15.3%	11.2%
Puka Nacua WR	LAR	43.6%	9.8%	9.8%
Davante Adams WR	LAR	36.3%	6.7%	7.3%
Blake Corum RB	LAR	32.0%	5.6%	6.4%
Khalil Shakir WR	BUF	29.4%	4.5%	6.1%
DJ Moore WR	BUF	26.3%	3.3%	4.5%
Josh Allen QB	BUF	24.4%	2.8%	4.5%
Dalton Kincaid TE	BUF	22.5%	2.4%	4.0%
Tyler Higbee TE	LAR	21.1%	2.0%	3.9%
Keon Coleman WR	BUF	21.0%	2.0%	4.1%
Ty Johnson RB	BUF	19.0%	1.5%	3.2%
Konata Mumpfield WR	LAR	13.6%	1.0%	2.3%
Matthew Stafford QB	LAR	11.8%	0.7%	2.3%
Colby Parkinson TE	LAR	11.7%	0.7%	2.2%
Ronnie Rivers RB	LAR	11.7%	0.6%	2.2%

First touchdown by team: BUF 44.4% · LAR 55.5% · no offensive touchdown 0.1%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: BUF 24 – 28 LAR

By quarter: BUF 10 / 7 / 0 / 7 · LAR 0 / 14 / 7 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BUF–LAR)
1	LAR	79	turnover	1	75	0–0
1	BUF	94	td	9	94	7–0
1	LAR	78	turnover	6	11	7–0
1	BUF	34	fg	8	25	10–0
1	LAR	88	punt	3	20	10–0
1	BUF	63	punt	3	5	10–0
2	LAR	63	td	12	63	10–7
2	BUF	35	fg miss	8	28	10–7
2	LAR	80	punt	3	9	10–7
2	BUF	81	punt	3	5	10–7
2	LAR	67	td	5	67	10–14
2	BUF	70	td	11	70	17–14
2	BUF	75	punt	3	7	17–14
3	LAR	77	td	13	77	17–21
3	BUF	46	punt	3	3	17–21
3	LAR	94	td	8	94	17–28
4	BUF	72	td	6	72	24–28
4	LAR	73	punt	3	6	24–28
4	BUF	73	punt	8	1	24–28
4	LAR	62	end half	1	-1	24–28

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: BUF 33 – 37 LAR

By quarter: BUF 13 / 10 / 7 / 3 · LAR 7 / 6 / 7 / 17

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BUF–LAR)
1	BUF	70	td	7	70	6–0
1	LAR	72	td	8	72	6–7
1	BUF	65	td	10	65	13–7
1	LAR	75	punt	5	0	13–7
1	BUF	58	fg	8	32	16–7
2	LAR	69	fg	11	38	16–10
2	BUF	65	td	8	65	23–10
2	LAR	78	fg	6	46	23–13
2	BUF	71	end half	1	-1	23–13
2	LAR	65	punt	3	4	23–13
3	BUF	99	td	5	99	30–13
3	LAR	72	td	4	72	30–20
3	BUF	69	downs	12	50	30–20
3	LAR	76	td	12	76	30–27
4	BUF	75	fg	11	73	33–27
4	LAR	60	td	5	60	33–34
4	BUF	52	turnover	3	47	33–34
4	LAR	77	fg	3	51	33–37
4	BUF	67	turnover	1	41	33–37
4	LAR	99	end half	2	54	33–37

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: BUF 16 – 20 LAR

By quarter: BUF 0 / 10 / 3 / 3 · LAR 3 / 7 / 7 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BUF–LAR)
1	BUF	68	turnover	1	24	0–0
1	LAR	51	fg	4	38	0–3
1	BUF	58	punt	8	-2	0–3
1	LAR	79	punt	9	15	0–3
1	BUF	61	td	12	61	7–3
2	LAR	80	punt	3	32	7–3
2	BUF	95	fg	10	77	10–3
2	LAR	72	punt	3	7	10–3
2	BUF	91	punt	3	37	10–3
2	LAR	99	td	13	99	10–10
2	BUF	80	end half	3	-1	10–10
2	LAR	65	fg miss	9	26	10–10
3	BUF	68	fg	11	57	13–10
3	LAR	71	td	5	71	13–17
3	BUF	66	punt	6	3	13–17
3	LAR	68	fg	12	63	13–20
4	BUF	80	punt	4	19	13–20
4	LAR	72	punt	3	3	13–20
4	BUF	50	fg	6	23	16–20
4	LAR	65	punt	5	6	16–20
4	BUF	66	turnover	5	31	16–20
4	LAR	65	end half	3	-1	16–20

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-10 18:50 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-13 00:15 UTC
Seed	65d13fbc · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 53 / margin.median 4 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means LAR 28.42 / BUF 24.42
Availability	injuries@2026-10-10T18:48:02Z+rosters@2026-10-10T18:48:02Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872994:70d257111481493e

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.