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NFL · BAL @ ATL · Simulation

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

BAL 24 — 23 ATL · win chance BAL 51.9% · ATL 44.6% · total 47

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

51.2%BAL win in the simulated games

48.4%ATL win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.5%game goes to overtime

BAL 24 – 23 ATLmedian score · averages 23.81 – 23.2

47median total · 80% of games 30–64

BAL by 1median margin · 80% range: BAL by 18 to ATL by 17

46.0%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

9.2% · 6.7%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: ATL points minus BAL points (below 0 means BAL won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-1). Range shown -51 to 51.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (47). Range shown 4 to 108.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
BAL	12	24	37	23.81
ATL	10	23	36	23.2

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	BAL median (80%)	ATL median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	BAL wins it	ATL wins it	Level
Q1	6 (0–13)	6 (0–11)	10 (3–18)	41.8%	41.1%	17.1%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	44.8%	42.3%	12.9%
Q3	6 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–17)	42.2%	39.6%	18.1%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–22)	42.8%	41.2%	15.9%
1st half	13 (3–21)	11 (3–21)	24 (13–37)	47.7%	45.7%	6.6%
2nd half	10 (3–21)	10 (3–20)	23 (10–35)	47.6%	44.4%	8.0%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	BAL	ATL
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	63 (50–76)	62 (50–75)
Pass attempts	33 (25–44)	34 (25–43)
Completions	24 (17–31)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	222 (136–320)	212 (130–309)
Passing TDs	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	26 (18–35)	25 (18–34)
Rushing yards	116 (56–194)	121 (60–203)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
BAL	4.7%	17.4%	28.7%	26.1%	15.2%	7.9%
ATL	5.6%	18.3%	29.6%	24.9%	14.7%	6.8%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

BAL passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Tyler Huntley QB	33 (25–44)	24 (17–31)	222 (136–320)	1.6	0.7

BAL rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Derrick Henry RB	17 (11–24)	75 (31–138)	0.7
Tyler Huntley QB	4 (2–7)	16 (2–48)	0.1
Justice Hill RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–28)	0.1
Zay Flowers WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–3)	0.0

BAL receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Zay Flowers WR	9 (5–14)	7 (3–10)	66 (23–126)	0.4
Mark Andrews TE	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	35 (8–82)	0.3
Rashod Bateman WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	21 (1–61)	0.2
Chris Moore WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–38)	0.1
Matthew Hibner TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–37)	0.1
Derrick Henry RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–33)	0.1

ATL passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Michael Penix Jr. QB	34 (25–43)	23 (16–30)	212 (130–309)	1.6	0.8

ATL rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Bijan Robinson RB	13 (8–19)	63 (24–123)	0.5
Brian Robinson Jr. RB	7 (3–11)	26 (6–66)	0.3
Michael Penix Jr. QB	4 (2–7)	15 (2–45)	0.1
Drake London WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–2)	0.0

ATL receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Drake London WR	9 (5–13)	6 (3–10)	62 (20–120)	0.4
Bijan Robinson RB	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	29 (5–73)	0.3
Jahan Dotson WR	4 (2–8)	3 (1–5)	21 (1–60)	0.2
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	19 (0–59)	0.2
Austin Hooper TE	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	9 (0–40)	0.1
Zachariah Branch WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–34)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Derrick Henry RB	BAL	54.7%	17.5%	14.5%
Bijan Robinson RB	ATL	54.0%	16.8%	14.8%
Zay Flowers WR	BAL	36.7%	6.8%	8.9%
Drake London WR	ATL	35.4%	6.5%	8.4%
Mark Andrews TE	BAL	29.0%	4.2%	6.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. RB	ATL	26.3%	3.4%	6.1%
Jahan Dotson WR	ATL	18.9%	1.7%	4.1%
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE	ATL	18.2%	1.6%	4.1%
Rashod Bateman WR	BAL	18.1%	1.6%	3.9%
Justice Hill RB	BAL	16.0%	1.1%	3.4%
Austin Hooper TE	ATL	11.0%	0.5%	2.3%
Michael Penix Jr. QB	ATL	10.6%	0.5%	2.1%
Chris Moore WR	BAL	10.4%	0.4%	2.1%
Tyler Huntley QB	BAL	10.2%	0.4%	2.2%
Matthew Hibner TE	BAL	9.7%	0.5%	1.8%
Olamide Zaccheaus WR	ATL	9.4%	0.4%	2.0%

First touchdown by team: BAL 50.0% · ATL 49.7% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: BAL 24 – 23 ATL

By quarter: BAL 10 / 7 / 0 / 7 · ATL 3 / 10 / 3 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BAL–ATL)
1	BAL	74	td	9	74	7–0
1	ATL	80	punt	3	20	7–0
1	BAL	99	punt	3	2	7–0
1	ATL	37	downs	4	33	7–0
1	BAL	96	fg	4	75	10–0
1	ATL	69	fg	4	68	10–3
1	BAL	71	td	5	71	17–3
2	ATL	65	td	14	65	17–10
2	BAL	69	punt	5	6	17–10
2	ATL	65	fg	7	60	17–13
2	BAL	68	end half	6	-1	17–13
2	ATL	65	punt	3	9	17–13
3	BAL	93	turnover	6	28	17–13
3	ATL	34	fg	8	21	17–16
3	BAL	79	punt	3	-1	17–16
3	ATL	67	punt	3	17	17–16
3	BAL	89	punt	6	13	17–16
4	ATL	61	td	7	61	17–23
4	BAL	62	downs	4	38	17–23
4	ATL	71	punt	3	7	17–23
4	BAL	85	td	5	85	24–23
4	ATL	74	punt	3	7	24–23
4	BAL	84	end half	12	-1	24–23

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: BAL 33 – 31 ATL

By quarter: BAL 10 / 13 / 7 / 3 · ATL 17 / 3 / 3 / 8

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BAL–ATL)
1	ATL	48	td	7	48	0–7
1	BAL	53	opp td	5	-3	0–14
1	BAL	74	td	2	74	7–14
1	ATL	67	fg miss	7	51	7–14
1	BAL	76	fg	7	55	10–14
1	ATL	73	fg	3	41	10–17
1	BAL	74	fg	7	50	13–17
2	ATL	65	fg	12	54	13–20
2	BAL	74	td	1	74	20–20
2	ATL	65	punt	3	30	20–20
2	BAL	99	fg	8	78	23–20
2	ATL	54	punt	3	15	23–20
2	BAL	99	end half	3	55	23–20
2	BAL	60	td	12	60	30–20
3	ATL	86	fg	8	58	30–23
3	BAL	65	turnover	9	1	30–23
4	ATL	22	fg	3	7	30–26
4	BAL	70	fg	6	50	33–26
4	ATL	65	punt	4	21	33–26
4	BAL	92	punt	6	24	33–26
4	ATL	55	punt	5	10	33–26
4	BAL	99	safety	3	-1	33–28
4	ATL	57	fg	6	23	33–31
4	BAL	74	end half	3	-1	33–31

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: BAL 16 – 14 ATL

By quarter: BAL 6 / 10 / 0 / 0 · ATL 7 / 0 / 0 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (BAL–ATL)
1	BAL	63	fg miss	6	40	0–0
1	ATL	99	punt	5	43	0–0
1	BAL	83	punt	3	-8	0–0
1	ATL	53	td	8	53	0–7
1	BAL	65	td	3	65	6–7
1	ATL	70	punt	3	5	6–7
1	BAL	73	fg	8	70	9–7
2	ATL	65	punt	3	0	9–7
2	BAL	77	td	12	77	16–7
2	ATL	65	turnover	4	12	16–7
2	BAL	58	punt	8	7	16–7
2	ATL	95	end half	6	0	16–7
2	ATL	69	turnover	13	16	16–7
3	BAL	57	punt	3	6	16–7
3	ATL	91	punt	8	14	16–7
3	BAL	75	punt	3	15	16–7
3	ATL	66	punt	3	40	16–7
4	BAL	99	punt	3	45	16–7
4	ATL	83	td	13	83	16–14
4	BAL	69	end half	3	-1	16–14

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-09 18:38 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-12 00:20 UTC
Seed	b2c2111e · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 47 / margin.median -1 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means ATL 23 / BAL 24.08
Availability	injuries@2026-10-09T18:36:32Z+rosters@2026-10-09T18:36:32Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872993:487a51e31ff48f36

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.