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NFL · SF @ SEA · Simulation

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

SF 21 — 25 SEA · win chance SF 36.8% · SEA 60.1% · total 46

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

39.6%SF win in the simulated games

60.1%SEA win in the simulated games

0.3%tie after overtime

2.9%game goes to overtime

SF 20 – 24 SEAmedian score · averages 21.08 – 24.85

45median total · 80% of games 30–63

SEA by 4median margin · 80% range: SF by 14 to SEA by 22

44.1%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.6% · 6.9%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: SEA points minus SF points (below 0 means SF won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (4). Range shown -48 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (45). Range shown 4 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
SF	10	20	34	21.08
SEA	13	24	37	24.85

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	SF median (80%)	SEA median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	SF wins it	SEA wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–17)	36.2%	45.1%	18.8%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	38.1%	49.2%	12.6%
Q3	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–17)	35.5%	45.3%	19.2%
Q4	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	12 (3–21)	36.1%	47.6%	16.3%
1st half	10 (3–20)	13 (3–22)	23 (13–35)	39.5%	53.6%	6.9%
2nd half	10 (2–19)	12 (3–21)	21 (10–34)	38.4%	53.9%	7.7%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	SF	SEA
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (49–75)	63 (50–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–43)
Completions	23 (17–31)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	208 (125–305)	227 (140–322)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–33)	26 (18–36)
Rushing yards	110 (54–189)	116 (58–196)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
SF	7.8%	22.9%	30.6%	23.3%	11.0%	4.4%
SEA	3.9%	16.1%	27.4%	26.9%	16.9%	8.7%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

SF passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Brock Purdy QB	34 (25–44)	23 (17–31)	208 (125–305)	1.4	0.9

SF rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Christian McCaffrey RB	9 (5–14)	36 (10–82)	0.3
Brock Purdy QB	6 (3–10)	27 (6–67)	0.2
Kaelon Black RB	5 (2–8)	15 (2–47)	0.2
Jordan James RB	2 (1–5)	6 (0–29)	0.1

SF receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
George Kittle TE	5 (2–9)	4 (1–7)	31 (5–77)	0.2
Mike Evans WR	5 (3–9)	4 (1–6)	29 (4–73)	0.2
Christian McCaffrey RB	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	25 (3–66)	0.2
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	4 (1–6)	3 (1–5)	17 (0–53)	0.2
Ricky Pearsall WR	3 (1–6)	2 (1–4)	16 (0–51)	0.1
Jake Tonges TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–45)	0.1

SEA passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Sam Darnold QB	33 (24–43)	23 (16–30)	227 (140–322)	1.7	0.7

SEA rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Emanuel Wilson RB	13 (8–19)	52 (18–107)	0.5
George Holani RB	5 (2–8)	17 (2–49)	0.2
Sam Darnold QB	4 (2–7)	16 (2–48)	0.1
Velus Jones Jr. RB	2 (1–5)	7 (0–32)	0.1

SEA receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	11 (6–16)	8 (4–12)	78 (30–143)	0.6
Cooper Kupp WR	4 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–58)	0.2
AJ Barner TE	4 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–56)	0.2
Rashid Shaheed WR	4 (2–7)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–56)	0.2
Tory Horton WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–40)	0.1
Emanuel Wilson RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–38)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Emanuel Wilson RB	SEA	47.0%	12.3%	13.1%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	SEA	44.0%	10.0%	11.1%
Christian McCaffrey RB	SF	42.2%	9.8%	10.6%
George Holani RB	SEA	25.2%	2.9%	6.1%
Rashid Shaheed WR	SEA	20.6%	2.2%	4.8%
Mike Evans WR	SF	20.6%	2.3%	5.1%
George Kittle TE	SF	19.5%	2.0%	4.3%
AJ Barner TE	SEA	18.3%	1.5%	4.1%
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	SF	18.1%	1.6%	4.0%
Kaelon Black RB	SF	16.8%	1.5%	3.6%
Cooper Kupp WR	SEA	16.8%	1.2%	3.5%
Brock Purdy QB	SF	16.0%	1.2%	3.1%
Ricky Pearsall WR	SF	13.3%	0.9%	2.8%
Jake Tonges TE	SF	11.6%	0.5%	2.4%
Sam Darnold QB	SEA	10.4%	0.5%	2.5%
Brandon Aiyuk WR	SF	10.1%	0.5%	2.1%

First touchdown by team: SF 44.5% · SEA 55.2% · no offensive touchdown 0.4%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: SF 20 – 24 SEA

By quarter: SF 7 / 7 / 3 / 3 · SEA 0 / 7 / 3 / 14

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (SF–SEA)
1	SEA	66	punt	3	7	0–0
1	SF	76	punt	4	27	0–0
1	SEA	99	punt	4	45	0–0
1	SF	85	punt	3	1	0–0
1	SEA	65	punt	5	7	0–0
1	SF	95	td	10	95	7–0
1	SEA	67	td	12	67	7–7
2	SF	68	punt	3	6	7–7
2	SEA	89	downs	4	9	7–7
2	SF	20	td	9	20	14–7
2	SEA	70	end half	1	55	14–7
2	SF	65	fg	4	33	17–7
3	SEA	77	fg	7	65	17–10
3	SF	70	punt	3	6	17–10
3	SEA	79	td	14	79	17–17
4	SF	75	punt	3	0	17–17
4	SEA	52	td	3	52	17–24
4	SF	72	fg	11	71	20–24

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: SF 30 – 33 SEA

By quarter: SF 10 / 14 / 3 / 3 · SEA 7 / 9 / 7 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (SF–SEA)
1	SF	58	fg	7	37	3–0
1	SEA	75	punt	3	16	3–0
1	SF	87	turnover	4	3	3–0
1	SEA	20	td	2	20	3–7
1	SF	59	td	11	59	10–7
1	SEA	65	td	8	65	10–13
2	SF	63	td	9	63	17–13
2	SEA	67	fg	7	54	17–16
2	SF	71	td	8	71	24–16
2	SEA	75	end half	5	18	24–16
2	SEA	68	td	9	68	24–23
3	SF	66	fg	7	63	27–23
3	SEA	69	td	11	69	27–30
4	SF	65	fg	7	51	30–30
4	SEA	68	fg	16	49	30–33
4	SF	69	turnover	9	0	30–33
4	SEA	39	end half	1	-2	30–33

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: SF 13 – 17 SEA

By quarter: SF 3 / 3 / 0 / 7 · SEA 0 / 3 / 7 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (SF–SEA)
1	SF	75	fg	12	41	3–0
1	SEA	89	turnover	5	18	3–0
1	SF	27	downs	4	16	3–0
1	SEA	89	punt	3	17	3–0
1	SF	61	punt	3	7	3–0
1	SEA	82	punt	6	19	3–0
2	SF	89	punt	7	45	3–0
2	SEA	99	punt	3	11	3–0
2	SF	31	fg	12	30	6–0
2	SEA	71	fg	9	32	6–3
2	SF	65	downs	4	-3	6–3
2	SEA	32	fg miss	10	0	6–3
2	SEA	60	downs	9	48	6–3
3	SF	83	punt	6	34	6–3
3	SEA	99	td	12	99	6–10
3	SF	80	turnover	5	56	6–10
4	SEA	80	punt	3	3	6–10
4	SF	59	punt	5	15	6–10
4	SEA	88	punt	3	3	6–10
4	SF	59	td	9	59	13–10
4	SEA	71	td	8	71	13–17
4	SF	60	downs	7	8	13–17
4	SEA	48	end half	1	-1	13–17

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-07 20:09 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-11 20:25 UTC
Seed	ceec6d05 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 46 / margin.median 4 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means SEA 24.93 / SF 20.95
Availability	injuries@2026-10-07T20:06:53Z+rosters@2026-10-07T20:06:53Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872992:3d1b005e64145681

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.