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NFL · DET @ ARI · Simulation

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

DET 29 — 25 ARI · win chance DET 61.9% · ARI 35.2% · total 54

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

65.3%DET win in the simulated games

34.3%ARI win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.5%game goes to overtime

DET 30 – 24 ARImedian score · averages 29.46 – 24.1

53median total · 80% of games 36–71

DET by 5median margin · 80% range: DET by 23 to ARI by 12

44.5%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.4% · 6.5%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: ARI points minus DET points (below 0 means DET won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-5). Range shown -63 to 51.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (53). Range shown 0 to 108.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
DET	17	30	42	29.46
ARI	13	24	37	24.1

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	DET median (80%)	ARI median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	DET wins it	ARI wins it	Level
Q1	7 (0–14)	6 (0–11)	10 (3–21)	49.0%	35.3%	15.7%
Q2	7 (0–16)	7 (0–14)	16 (7–25)	52.6%	35.7%	11.6%
Q3	7 (0–14)	6 (0–12)	10 (3–21)	48.5%	34.4%	17.1%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	49.2%	36.0%	14.8%
1st half	14 (6–24)	13 (3–21)	27 (16–40)	57.7%	36.3%	6.0%
2nd half	14 (6–24)	10 (3–21)	26 (14–38)	55.6%	36.6%	7.8%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	DET	ARI
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	64 (51–76)	62 (50–75)
Pass attempts	33 (25–43)	34 (26–44)
Completions	23 (16–30)	24 (17–32)
Passing yards	244 (156–342)	227 (139–325)
Passing TDs	2 (1–4)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	0 (0–1)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	27 (19–36)	24 (17–33)
Rushing yards	135 (70–221)	120 (59–201)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
DET	1.4%	7.8%	18.9%	27.0%	24.5%	20.4%
ARI	3.7%	15.4%	27.5%	27.2%	17.0%	9.1%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

DET passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jared Goff QB	29 (22–38)	20 (14–27)	215 (133–312)	1.9	0.4

DET rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jahmyr Gibbs RB	18 (12–25)	88 (38–158)	0.9
Jared Goff QB	3 (1–6)	12 (0–38)	0.1
Sione Vaki RB	1 (0–3)	3 (0–21)	0.1

DET receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	8 (5–13)	6 (3–9)	56 (18–114)	0.6
Sam LaPorta TE	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	37 (8–86)	0.4
Jahmyr Gibbs RB	5 (2–9)	4 (1–7)	33 (6–79)	0.3
Jameson Williams WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	31 (4–80)	0.3
Isaac TeSlaa WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	17 (0–57)	0.2
Brock Wright TE	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)	3 (0–29)	0.1

ARI passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jacoby Brissett QB	30 (22–39)	21 (15–28)	198 (118–292)	1.5	0.6

ARI rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jeremiyah Love RB	7 (4–11)	31 (7–75)	0.3
James Conner RB	4 (2–7)	15 (1–49)	0.2
Jacoby Brissett QB	3 (1–6)	13 (1–43)	0.1
Tyler Allgeier RB	3 (1–6)	12 (0–42)	0.2

ARI receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Trey McBride TE	9 (5–13)	6 (3–10)	53 (16–107)	0.5
Michael Wilson WR	8 (5–13)	5 (2–8)	49 (13–103)	0.4
Kendrick Bourne WR	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–55)	0.2
Trey Benson RB	2 (1–5)	2 (0–3)	10 (0–44)	0.1
Jeremiyah Love RB	2 (0–4)	2 (0–3)	9 (0–39)	0.1
James Conner RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–39)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Jahmyr Gibbs RB	DET	72.4%	34.3%	20.9%
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	DET	43.4%	10.3%	9.6%
Trey McBride TE	ARI	37.0%	7.2%	6.9%
Jeremiyah Love RB	ARI	35.2%	6.1%	6.7%
Other / unallocated	DET	34.5%	5.8%	7.0%
Michael Wilson WR	ARI	34.2%	6.1%	6.5%
Sam LaPorta TE	DET	30.8%	5.1%	5.9%
Jameson Williams WR	DET	26.7%	3.4%	5.2%
James Conner RB	ARI	24.9%	2.9%	4.5%
Trey Benson RB	ARI	22.7%	2.5%	4.0%
Tyler Allgeier RB	ARI	22.3%	2.5%	4.0%
Isaac TeSlaa WR	DET	17.6%	1.6%	3.2%
Bam Knight RB	ARI	16.2%	1.4%	2.7%
Kendrick Bourne WR	ARI	15.9%	1.1%	2.8%
Sione Vaki RB	DET	11.8%	0.6%	2.3%
Brock Wright TE	DET	8.2%	0.3%	1.5%

First touchdown by team: DET 57.5% · ARI 42.4% · no offensive touchdown 0.1%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: DET 29 – 24 ARI

By quarter: DET 10 / 9 / 7 / 3 · ARI 7 / 3 / 0 / 14

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DET–ARI)
1	DET	65	fg	9	64	3–0
1	ARI	65	punt	3	-3	3–0
1	DET	88	td	3	88	10–0
1	ARI	75	td	10	75	10–7
1	DET	65	punt	3	10	10–7
1	ARI	77	punt	4	1	10–7
2	DET	55	fg	6	30	13–7
2	ARI	77	turnover	2	51	13–7
2	DET	46	fg	5	45	16–7
2	ARI	65	fg	10	42	16–10
2	DET	87	fg	8	62	19–10
2	ARI	73	punt	6	4	19–10
3	DET	63	punt	5	2	19–10
3	ARI	92	punt	3	25	19–10
3	DET	77	td	6	77	26–10
3	ARI	73	punt	3	21	26–10
3	DET	88	punt	3	33	26–10
3	ARI	92	td	7	92	26–17
4	DET	78	fg	9	67	29–17
4	ARI	65	td	6	65	29–24
4	DET	65	punt	5	5	29–24
4	ARI	76	end half	4	6	29–24

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: DET 38 – 33 ARI

By quarter: DET 14 / 14 / 3 / 7 · ARI 7 / 13 / 13 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DET–ARI)
1	DET	66	punt	6	37	0–0
1	ARI	86	opp td	2	34	7–0
1	ARI	70	td	1	70	7–7
1	DET	71	td	12	71	14–7
1	ARI	68	td	12	68	14–13
2	DET	64	td	5	64	21–13
2	ARI	69	turnover	3	39	21–13
2	DET	99	opp td	3	3	21–20
2	DET	65	punt	6	-2	21–20
2	ARI	82	punt	6	4	21–20
2	DET	48	td	6	48	28–20
2	ARI	89	end half	10	-3	28–20
2	ARI	63	fg	3	34	28–23
3	DET	75	punt	3	-10	28–23
3	ARI	45	td	1	45	28–30
3	DET	75	fg	3	68	31–30
3	ARI	65	fg	9	61	31–33
3	DET	65	punt	8	7	31–33
3	ARI	75	punt	3	28	31–33
3	DET	86	punt	3	46	31–33
4	ARI	97	punt	3	20	31–33
4	DET	69	td	14	69	38–33
4	ARI	65	turnover	3	41	38–33
4	DET	79	end half	2	45	38–33

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: DET 21 – 16 ARI

By quarter: DET 7 / 7 / 0 / 7 · ARI 3 / 3 / 7 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DET–ARI)
1	DET	80	punt	9	7	0–0
1	ARI	76	fg	5	62	0–3
1	DET	66	punt	3	8	0–3
1	ARI	86	punt	3	36	0–3
1	DET	97	td	13	97	7–3
1	ARI	62	fg	11	51	7–6
2	DET	69	punt	3	24	7–6
2	ARI	91	turnover	2	29	7–6
2	DET	47	td	6	47	14–6
2	ARI	63	punt	3	15	14–6
2	DET	90	end half	3	6	14–6
2	ARI	66	td	5	66	14–13
3	DET	81	punt	6	51	14–13
3	ARI	94	punt	4	52	14–13
3	DET	99	punt	3	1	14–13
3	ARI	58	punt	6	3	14–13
3	DET	84	punt	3	9	14–13
3	ARI	69	fg	9	48	14–16
4	DET	70	punt	3	0	14–16
4	ARI	73	punt	3	-3	14–16
4	DET	69	td	3	69	21–16
4	ARI	65	punt	3	16	21–16
4	DET	84	punt	3	8	21–16
4	ARI	76	fg miss	6	42	21–16
4	DET	58	punt	6	20	21–16
4	ARI	99	end half	7	45	21–16

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-10 17:34 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-11 20:25 UTC
Seed	0c20b0f0 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 54 / margin.median -5 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means ARI 24.49 / DET 29.46
Availability	injuries@2026-10-10T17:32:23Z+rosters@2026-10-10T17:32:23Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872991:fa7ba9ede10165f3

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.