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NFL · CHI @ GB · Simulation

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

CHI 22 — 26 GB · win chance CHI 40.8% · GB 56.5% · total 48

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

39.2%CHI win in the simulated games

60.5%GB win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.1%game goes to overtime

CHI 22 – 26 GBmedian score · averages 22.17 – 25.94

48median total · 80% of games 31–65

GB by 4median margin · 80% range: CHI by 14 to GB by 21

44.8%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.6% · 6.6%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: GB points minus CHI points (below 0 means CHI won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (4). Range shown -51 to 60.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (48). Range shown 8 to 104.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
CHI	10	22	34	22.17
GB	13	26	38	25.94

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	CHI median (80%)	GB median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	CHI wins it	GB wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–19)	36.9%	45.9%	17.2%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	38.5%	49.3%	12.2%
Q3	3 (0–10)	7 (0–13)	10 (3–20)	35.6%	46.6%	17.8%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–22)	36.7%	47.5%	15.8%
1st half	10 (3–20)	13 (3–23)	24 (13–37)	39.6%	54.2%	6.2%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	13 (3–21)	23 (12–35)	38.1%	54.2%	7.7%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	CHI	GB
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (25–43)
Completions	23 (17–31)	22 (15–29)
Passing yards	213 (129–309)	229 (141–326)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–34)	26 (18–36)
Rushing yards	118 (56–198)	124 (61–206)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
CHI	6.3%	20.3%	29.3%	24.8%	13.4%	5.8%
GB	3.3%	13.3%	25.8%	27.5%	18.4%	11.7%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

CHI passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Caleb Williams QB	34 (25–44)	23 (17–31)	213 (129–309)	1.5	0.8

CHI rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
D'Andre Swift RB	12 (8–18)	53 (19–108)	0.5
Caleb Williams QB	10 (6–15)	47 (15–98)	0.3
Brittain Brown RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–14)	0.0
Roschon Johnson RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–13)	0.0

CHI receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Luther Burden III WR	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	38 (8–88)	0.3
Kalif Raymond WR	5 (2–9)	4 (2–7)	32 (6–77)	0.2
Rome Odunze WR	5 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	30 (4–77)	0.2
Colston Loveland TE	5 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	27 (3–69)	0.2
D'Andre Swift RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–44)	0.1
Cole Kmet TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–35)	0.1

GB passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jordan Love QB	29 (21–38)	19 (13–26)	198 (117–293)	1.6	0.6

GB rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Josh Jacobs RB	9 (5–14)	39 (12–88)	0.4
MarShawn Lloyd RB	7 (4–12)	28 (6–71)	0.3
Kaleb Johnson RB	6 (3–10)	25 (5–66)	0.3
Jordan Love QB	3 (1–6)	12 (0–41)	0.1

GB receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Christian Watson WR	6 (3–9)	4 (1–7)	40 (7–92)	0.3
Matthew Golden WR	6 (3–10)	4 (1–6)	37 (6–87)	0.3
Tucker Kraft TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	28 (4–74)	0.3
MarShawn Lloyd RB	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–44)	0.1
Luke Musgrave TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	10 (0–44)	0.1
Skyy Moore WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–41)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
D'Andre Swift RB	CHI	46.4%	11.4%	11.3%
Josh Jacobs RB	GB	39.2%	8.0%	9.6%
MarShawn Lloyd RB	GB	37.2%	7.5%	8.6%
Matthew Golden WR	GB	30.1%	4.5%	6.8%
Christian Watson WR	GB	28.5%	3.9%	6.0%
Luther Burden III WR	CHI	28.1%	4.0%	6.3%
Caleb Williams QB	CHI	26.9%	3.5%	6.1%
Kaleb Johnson RB	GB	24.7%	2.9%	5.6%
Tucker Kraft TE	GB	24.6%	3.2%	5.4%
Rome Odunze WR	CHI	22.0%	2.3%	4.5%
Colston Loveland TE	CHI	21.9%	2.1%	4.6%
Kalif Raymond WR	CHI	21.8%	2.2%	4.4%
Luke Musgrave TE	GB	12.4%	0.6%	2.6%
Skyy Moore WR	GB	12.2%	0.7%	2.5%
Cole Kmet TE	CHI	8.3%	0.5%	1.6%
Mark Redman TE	GB	7.8%	0.3%	1.6%

First touchdown by team: CHI 44.9% · GB 54.9% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: CHI 22 – 26 GB

By quarter: CHI 6 / 3 / 7 / 6 · GB 3 / 3 / 0 / 20

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CHI–GB)
1	GB	69	fg	7	48	0–3
1	CHI	65	punt	6	23	0–3
1	GB	87	punt	3	20	0–3
1	CHI	72	punt	3	21	0–3
1	GB	98	punt	3	9	0–3
1	CHI	57	td	2	57	6–3
1	GB	64	punt	6	9	6–3
2	CHI	83	punt	3	1	6–3
2	GB	61	punt	5	22	6–3
2	CHI	99	fg	9	89	9–3
2	GB	76	fg	6	54	9–6
2	CHI	77	punt	6	25	9–6
3	GB	82	punt	10	-5	9–6
3	CHI	33	td	5	33	16–6
3	GB	14	td	8	14	16–13
4	CHI	68	punt	3	-1	16–13
4	GB	73	punt	3	19	16–13
4	CHI	99	turnover	5	30	16–13
4	GB	31	fg	12	19	16–16
4	CHI	72	fg	12	41	19–16
4	GB	77	fg	5	46	19–19
4	CHI	65	fg	5	62	22–19
4	GB	70	td	5	70	22–26
4	CHI	71	end half	3	43	22–26

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: CHI 30 – 34 GB

By quarter: CHI 10 / 10 / 7 / 3 · GB 7 / 14 / 10 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CHI–GB)
1	CHI	43	fg	4	42	3–0
1	GB	48	td	8	48	3–7
1	CHI	70	turnover	4	-5	3–7
1	GB	42	punt	3	6	3–7
1	CHI	99	td	12	99	10–7
1	GB	65	td	10	65	10–14
2	CHI	55	turnover	2	13	10–14
2	GB	49	td	8	49	10–21
2	CHI	71	td	2	71	17–21
2	GB	75	punt	3	9	17–21
2	CHI	68	fg	5	47	20–21
2	GB	71	end half	4	48	20–21
2	GB	80	punt	3	9	20–21
3	CHI	94	punt	3	49	20–21
3	GB	79	fg	8	77	20–24
3	CHI	76	td	8	76	27–24
3	GB	80	td	3	80	27–31
3	CHI	69	punt	3	-1	27–31
4	GB	88	fg	4	69	27–34
4	CHI	65	fg	10	31	30–34
4	GB	63	fg miss	10	19	30–34
4	CHI	48	end half	1	-3	30–34

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: CHI 14 – 18 GB

By quarter: CHI 0 / 0 / 7 / 7 · GB 3 / 12 / 3 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CHI–GB)
1	GB	65	fg	13	55	0–3
1	CHI	70	punt	8	0	0–3
1	GB	87	punt	3	1	0–3
1	CHI	69	turnover	1	0	0–3
1	GB	41	td	16	41	0–10
2	CHI	65	turnover	2	12	0–10
2	GB	58	punt	3	27	0–10
2	CHI	99	safety	1	-1	0–12
2	GB	57	fg	13	49	0–15
2	CHI	69	end half	5	14	0–15
2	CHI	73	td	5	73	7–15
3	GB	70	fg	5	67	7–18
3	CHI	65	punt	4	46	7–18
3	GB	99	punt	7	2	7–18
3	CHI	32	turnover	3	23	7–18
3	GB	64	punt	8	9	7–18
4	CHI	78	punt	6	9	7–18
4	GB	78	fg miss	6	44	7–18
4	CHI	58	td	12	58	14–18

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-09 20:06 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Seed	3a784291 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 48 / margin.median 4 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means GB 25.99 / CHI 21.95
Availability	injuries@2026-10-09T20:03:58Z+rosters@2026-10-09T20:03:58Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872990:850f153dd52d9d18

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.