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NFL · NYG @ WSH · Simulation

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

NYG 21 — 28 WSH · win chance NYG 38.1% · WSH 59.3% · total 49

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

30.3%NYG win in the simulated games

69.4%WSH win in the simulated games

0.3%tie after overtime

3.1%game goes to overtime

NYG 20 – 27 WSHmedian score · averages 21.08 – 27.87

49median total · 80% of games 33–66

WSH by 7median margin · 80% range: NYG by 11 to WSH by 24

41.9%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.4% · 5.9%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: WSH points minus NYG points (below 0 means NYG won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (7). Range shown -42 to 57.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (49). Range shown 8 to 104.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
NYG	10	20	34	21.08
WSH	16	27	41	27.87

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	NYG median (80%)	WSH median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	NYG wins it	WSH wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	32.9%	50.2%	17.0%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–15)	14 (6–24)	33.8%	54.2%	12.1%
Q3	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	31.1%	50.5%	18.3%
Q4	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–22)	33.8%	50.6%	15.6%
1st half	10 (3–20)	14 (6–24)	24 (13–37)	33.6%	60.5%	5.9%
2nd half	10 (3–19)	13 (6–22)	23 (13–36)	32.9%	59.8%	7.3%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	NYG	WSH
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (49–75)	64 (51–77)
Pass attempts	34 (26–45)	33 (24–43)
Completions	23 (16–30)	22 (15–29)
Passing yards	215 (129–310)	227 (143–323)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–4)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (16–33)	27 (19–37)
Rushing yards	109 (52–189)	136 (71–221)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
NYG	7.7%	21.9%	30.9%	23.2%	11.7%	4.6%
WSH	2.1%	10.3%	22.2%	28.2%	21.7%	15.4%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

NYG passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jameis Winston QB	34 (25–44)	22 (16–30)	213 (127–308)	1.4	0.9
Gunner Olszewski WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–1)	0 (0–3)	0.0	0.0

NYG rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Cam Skattebo RB	11 (6–16)	43 (13–95)	0.4
Najee Harris RB	5 (2–8)	18 (2–54)	0.2
Devin Singletary RB	3 (1–6)	12 (0–41)	0.1
Jameis Winston QB	2 (1–5)	9 (0–34)	0.0

NYG receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Isaiah Likely TE	9 (5–14)	6 (3–9)	48 (14–100)	0.4
Malik Nabers WR	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	41 (10–93)	0.3
Malachi Fields WR	4 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	17 (0–57)	0.1
Cam Skattebo RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–47)	0.1
Darnell Mooney WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–47)	0.1
Theo Johnson TE	3 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	10 (0–44)	0.1

WSH passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jayden Daniels QB	33 (24–42)	22 (15–29)	226 (141–320)	1.9	0.5
Antonio Williams WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–0)	0 (0–0)	0.0	0.0
Dyami Brown WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–0)	0 (0–0)	0.0	0.0

WSH rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jayden Daniels QB	8 (4–12)	42 (13–91)	0.3
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB	9 (5–14)	36 (11–82)	0.4
Rachaad White RB	4 (2–8)	18 (2–53)	0.2
Austin Ekeler RB	4 (1–7)	15 (1–48)	0.2

WSH receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Terry McLaurin WR	7 (4–11)	4 (2–7)	46 (11–101)	0.4
Antonio Williams WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	26 (2–70)	0.3
Dyami Brown WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–50)	0.2
Chig Okonkwo TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–50)	0.2
Rachaad White RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–48)	0.2
Treylon Burks WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	11 (0–45)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB	WSH	40.6%	8.5%	10.2%
Cam Skattebo RB	NYG	40.6%	8.9%	9.4%
Terry McLaurin WR	WSH	36.6%	6.6%	8.5%
Isaiah Likely TE	NYG	32.3%	5.3%	7.0%
Rachaad White RB	WSH	30.0%	5.0%	6.7%
Austin Ekeler RB	WSH	26.6%	3.4%	5.8%
Malik Nabers WR	NYG	26.0%	3.2%	5.2%
Jayden Daniels QB	WSH	25.3%	3.1%	5.4%
Antonio Williams WR	WSH	24.4%	3.0%	5.1%
Devin Singletary RB	NYG	19.4%	1.8%	4.0%
Najee Harris RB	NYG	16.8%	1.3%	3.1%
Dyami Brown WR	WSH	16.2%	1.2%	3.4%
Chig Okonkwo TE	WSH	16.2%	1.4%	3.4%
Malachi Fields WR	NYG	14.1%	0.9%	2.7%
Treylon Burks WR	WSH	13.9%	0.8%	2.9%
John Bates TE	WSH	11.4%	0.6%	2.3%

First touchdown by team: NYG 40.4% · WSH 59.4% · no offensive touchdown 0.2%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: NYG 21 – 28 WSH

By quarter: NYG 0 / 7 / 7 / 7 · WSH 6 / 8 / 14 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NYG–WSH)
1	WSH	36	fg	9	9	0–3
1	NYG	55	fg miss	12	23	0–3
1	WSH	75	fg	8	58	0–6
1	NYG	65	td	15	65	7–6
2	WSH	68	punt	6	29	7–6
2	NYG	94	punt	3	5	7–6
2	WSH	54	td	3	54	7–14
2	NYG	65	punt	3	14	7–14
2	WSH	82	end half	11	-1	7–14
2	NYG	62	td	10	62	14–14
3	WSH	45	td	3	45	14–21
3	NYG	80	punt	7	0	14–21
3	WSH	60	td	8	60	14–28
3	NYG	45	td	13	45	21–28
4	WSH	74	punt	3	26	21–28
4	NYG	85	turnover	8	63	21–28
4	WSH	89	end half	1	9	21–28

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: NYG 30 – 37 WSH (OT)

By quarter: NYG 11 / 3 / 13 / 3 / OT 0 · WSH 3 / 7 / 0 / 20 / OT 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NYG–WSH)
1	WSH	66	fg	13	34	0–3
1	NYG	65	td	6	65	8–3
1	WSH	65	punt	3	10	8–3
1	NYG	88	fg	5	46	11–3
1	WSH	65	td	8	65	11–10
2	NYG	44	turnover	5	1	11–10
2	WSH	84	punt	3	-1	11–10
2	NYG	51	fg	3	37	14–10
2	WSH	74	punt	7	9	14–10
2	NYG	74	punt	4	32	14–10
2	WSH	92	end half	2	0	14–10
2	NYG	80	td	7	80	20–10
3	WSH	74	punt	5	8	20–10
3	NYG	68	td	8	68	27–10
3	WSH	70	td	6	70	27–17
4	NYG	68	fg	13	41	30–17
4	WSH	70	fg	4	33	30–20
4	NYG	69	fg miss	5	62	30–20
4	WSH	85	turnover	3	11	30–20
4	NYG	35	downs	11	9	30–20
4	WSH	74	punt	3	22	30–20
4	NYG	93	punt	3	9	30–20
4	WSH	51	fg	10	48	30–23
4	NYG	81	punt	3	2	30–23
4	WSH	54	td	6	54	30–30
OT	WSH	67	td	5	67	30–37
OT	NYG	65	punt	3	5	30–37

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: NYG 13 – 20 WSH

By quarter: NYG 3 / 3 / 7 / 0 · WSH 0 / 7 / 7 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NYG–WSH)
1	NYG	74	punt	3	8	0–0
1	WSH	75	punt	7	-1	0–0
1	NYG	63	fg	8	29	3–0
1	WSH	72	punt	6	6	3–0
1	NYG	69	fg	10	45	6–0
2	WSH	73	punt	3	-1	6–0
2	NYG	62	punt	5	25	6–0
2	WSH	99	td	10	99	6–7
2	NYG	72	punt	3	22	6–7
2	WSH	86	end half	1	37	6–7
2	WSH	55	td	5	55	6–14
3	NYG	74	td	8	74	13–14
3	WSH	77	fg	12	46	13–17
4	NYG	80	punt	6	9	13–17
4	WSH	69	fg	8	62	13–20
4	NYG	78	punt	3	17	13–20
4	WSH	76	punt	3	-4	13–20
4	NYG	66	downs	12	46	13–20
4	WSH	80	end half	1	22	13–20

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-10 00:32 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Seed	9bea2633 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 49 / margin.median 6 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means WSH 27.51 / NYG 21.4
Availability	injuries@2026-10-10T00:30:27Z+rosters@2026-10-10T00:30:27Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872988:55b9a27ca7628749

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.