Today · Oct 10 · 19 events Games under way Settled· Oct 7

NFL · MIN @ NO · Simulation

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

MIN 22 — 18 NO · win chance MIN 70.8% · NO 26.4% · total 40

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

64.0%MIN win in the simulated games

35.6%NO win in the simulated games

0.5%tie after overtime

3.1%game goes to overtime

MIN 22 – 17 NOmedian score · averages 22.47 – 17.81

40median total · 80% of games 25–57

MIN by 5median margin · 80% range: MIN by 22 to NO by 13

43.5%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.8% · 6.5%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: NO points minus MIN points (below 0 means MIN won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-5). Range shown -57 to 39.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (40). Range shown 0 to 92.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
MIN	10	22	34	22.47
NO	7	17	30	17.81

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	MIN median (80%)	NO median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	MIN wins it	NO wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	7 (3–17)	46.8%	34.0%	19.2%
Q2	7 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	12 (3–21)	49.9%	36.2%	13.9%
Q3	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	7 (0–17)	46.2%	33.5%	20.2%
Q4	6 (0–14)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–20)	47.8%	33.9%	18.4%
1st half	10 (3–21)	9 (0–17)	20 (10–32)	55.4%	37.6%	7.0%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	7 (0–17)	19 (9–31)	55.5%	35.8%	8.6%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	MIN	NO
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	63 (51–76)	61 (49–74)
Pass attempts	33 (24–43)	34 (25–44)
Completions	22 (16–29)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	201 (119–293)	194 (114–285)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–3)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	27 (18–36)	24 (17–33)
Rushing yards	119 (58–198)	101 (47–176)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
MIN	7.1%	22.2%	30.1%	23.8%	12.0%	4.8%
NO	14.0%	30.6%	31.3%	16.7%	5.8%	1.6%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

MIN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Kyler Murray QB	33 (24–43)	22 (16–29)	201 (119–293)	1.4	0.8

MIN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Aaron Jones Sr. RB	11 (7–17)	47 (15–99)	0.4
Jordan Mason RB	6 (3–11)	25 (5–66)	0.2
Kyler Murray QB	6 (3–10)	24 (5–63)	0.1
Demond Claiborne RB	1 (0–3)	2 (0–18)	0.1

MIN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Justin Jefferson WR	8 (4–12)	5 (3–9)	48 (13–101)	0.4
T.J. Hockenson TE	7 (4–11)	5 (3–9)	43 (11–92)	0.3
Jordan Addison WR	7 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	34 (6–83)	0.3
Aaron Jones Sr. RB	5 (2–8)	3 (1–5)	21 (1–59)	0.2
Jauan Jennings WR	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)	2 (0–26)	0.1
Tai Felton WR	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)	0 (0–23)	0.1

NO passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Tyler Shough QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–30)	194 (114–285)	1.1	1.1

NO rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Tyler Shough QB	7 (4–11)	30 (7–72)	0.2
Alvin Kamara RB	8 (4–13)	27 (6–70)	0.2
Kendre Miller RB	6 (3–10)	19 (3–55)	0.2
CJ Donaldson RB	2 (0–4)	4 (0–24)	0.1

NO receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Chris Olave WR	8 (5–12)	6 (3–9)	48 (13–100)	0.3
Juwan Johnson TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	24 (2–66)	0.2
Devaughn Vele WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	24 (2–65)	0.2
Noah Fant TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–44)	0.1
Alvin Kamara RB	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–43)	0.1
Kevin Austin Jr. WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–36)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Aaron Jones Sr. RB	MIN	46.5%	11.4%	14.8%
Justin Jefferson WR	MIN	30.5%	4.8%	9.0%
Alvin Kamara RB	NO	29.4%	4.3%	8.2%
T.J. Hockenson TE	MIN	27.7%	3.9%	8.0%
Jordan Addison WR	MIN	26.6%	3.5%	7.6%
Chris Olave WR	NO	24.3%	2.8%	6.9%
Jordan Mason RB	MIN	21.2%	2.3%	5.9%
Kendre Miller RB	NO	18.6%	1.5%	4.8%
Devaughn Vele WR	NO	15.9%	1.1%	4.5%
Juwan Johnson TE	NO	14.8%	0.9%	3.8%
Tyler Shough QB	NO	14.8%	1.0%	3.8%
Kyler Murray QB	MIN	13.6%	1.0%	3.5%
Noah Fant TE	NO	10.2%	0.4%	2.6%
Kevin Austin Jr. WR	NO	7.0%	0.3%	1.7%
CJ Donaldson RB	NO	6.8%	0.3%	1.7%
Bryce Lance WR	NO	6.7%	0.3%	1.7%

First touchdown by team: MIN 56.3% · NO 42.8% · no offensive touchdown 0.9%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: MIN 22 – 17 NO

By quarter: MIN 10 / 6 / 0 / 6 · NO 0 / 14 / 0 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (MIN–NO)
1	MIN	65	td	7	65	7–0
1	NO	60	fg miss	5	40	7–0
1	MIN	67	fg	7	50	10–0
1	NO	80	td	12	80	10–7
2	MIN	75	fg	11	62	13–7
2	NO	80	td	3	80	13–14
2	MIN	75	punt	7	7	13–14
2	NO	78	turnover	3	33	13–14
2	MIN	68	fg	10	47	16–14
2	NO	73	fg miss	7	30	16–14
2	NO	65	punt	4	-10	16–14
3	MIN	80	punt	3	-1	16–14
3	NO	54	fg miss	14	15	16–14
3	MIN	42	turnover	1	22	16–14
3	NO	77	punt	3	0	16–14
3	MIN	72	punt	3	18	16–14
3	NO	96	turnover	2	29	16–14
3	MIN	62	turnover	11	17	16–14
3	NO	47	punt	3	9	16–14
4	MIN	99	fg	5	60	19–14
4	NO	73	punt	3	2	19–14
4	MIN	68	punt	3	3	19–14
4	NO	90	fg	12	79	19–17
4	MIN	80	fg	6	42	22–17
4	NO	77	end half	9	23	22–17

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: MIN 31 – 26 NO

By quarter: MIN 7 / 10 / 0 / 14 · NO 7 / 3 / 10 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (MIN–NO)
1	MIN	65	td	9	65	7–0
1	NO	65	td	9	65	7–7
1	MIN	77	turnover	4	46	7–7
1	NO	58	punt	3	15	7–7
1	MIN	99	td	11	99	14–7
2	NO	73	punt	6	-1	14–7
2	MIN	62	punt	3	9	14–7
2	NO	92	punt	3	31	14–7
2	MIN	82	punt	3	8	14–7
2	NO	38	fg	7	4	14–10
2	MIN	65	fg	5	56	17–10
2	NO	74	fg	4	46	17–13
3	MIN	68	punt	3	1	17–13
3	NO	65	fg miss	2	28	17–13
3	MIN	50	punt	3	7	17–13
3	NO	93	td	5	93	17–20
3	MIN	80	turnover	2	21	17–20
3	NO	36	td	11	36	17–26
4	MIN	65	td	5	65	24–26
4	NO	80	punt	6	9	24–26
4	MIN	45	td	6	45	31–26
4	NO	69	end half	13	31	31–26

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: MIN 15 – 10 NO

By quarter: MIN 0 / 3 / 3 / 9 · NO 3 / 0 / 7 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (MIN–NO)
1	MIN	65	punt	6	15	0–0
1	NO	97	fg miss	11	69	0–0
1	MIN	64	turnover	2	0	0–0
1	NO	29	fg	14	7	0–3
1	MIN	60	punt	3	18	0–3
1	NO	89	punt	4	5	0–3
1	MIN	46	fg	11	5	3–3
2	NO	70	punt	4	1	3–3
2	MIN	89	punt	7	31	3–3
2	NO	89	fg miss	11	51	3–3
2	NO	65	td	10	65	3–10
3	MIN	68	fg	6	63	6–10
3	NO	78	turnover	6	56	6–10
3	MIN	83	td	4	83	12–10
4	NO	79	turnover	1	54	12–10
4	MIN	39	turnover	3	26	12–10
4	NO	84	punt	7	2	12–10
4	MIN	59	fg	9	45	15–10
4	NO	67	turnover	6	9	15–10
4	MIN	48	end half	1	-2	15–10

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-08 00:46 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Seed	8a80ecc0 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 40 / margin.median -5 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means NO 17.62 / MIN 22.43
Availability	injuries@2026-10-08T00:43:59Z+rosters@2026-10-08T00:43:59Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872987:c449122565fab16b

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.