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NFL · LV @ NE · Simulation

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

LV 16 — 24 NE · win chance LV 24.5% · NE 72.9% · total 40

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

28.8%LV win in the simulated games

70.8%NE win in the simulated games

0.5%tie after overtime

2.9%game goes to overtime

LV 16 – 24 NEmedian score · averages 16.41 – 23.79

40median total · 80% of games 25–56

NE by 7median margin · 80% range: LV by 11 to NE by 25

39.3%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.0% · 6.3%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: NE points minus LV points (below 0 means LV won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (7). Range shown -48 to 60.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (40). Range shown 4 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
LV	6	16	28	16.41
NE	12	24	36	23.79

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	LV median (80%)	NE median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	LV wins it	NE wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–9)	6 (0–13)	7 (3–17)	31.1%	49.6%	19.3%
Q2	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	12 (3–21)	32.0%	54.6%	13.4%
Q3	3 (0–8)	6 (0–11)	7 (0–17)	29.7%	50.5%	19.8%
Q4	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	30.9%	51.4%	17.7%
1st half	7 (0–17)	13 (3–21)	20 (10–32)	31.7%	61.9%	6.4%
2nd half	7 (0–16)	10 (3–21)	19 (9–30)	31.5%	59.8%	8.6%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	LV	NE
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	61 (49–74)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	32 (24–42)
Completions	23 (16–31)	22 (15–29)
Passing yards	190 (110–283)	204 (122–296)
Passing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (16–32)	27 (19–37)
Rushing yards	95 (43–169)	121 (60–200)
Rushing TDs	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
LV	17.4%	33.8%	28.4%	14.6%	4.6%	1.3%
NE	5.5%	20.4%	28.7%	25.0%	14.1%	6.3%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

LV passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Kirk Cousins QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–31)	190 (110–283)	1.0	1.3

LV rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Ashton Jeanty RB	13 (8–19)	48 (17–101)	0.3
Mike Washington Jr. RB	4 (2–7)	14 (1–46)	0.1
Kirk Cousins QB	4 (2–7)	13 (1–42)	0.1
Connor Heyward FB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–10)	0.0

LV receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Brock Bowers TE	9 (6–14)	6 (3–10)	49 (14–103)	0.3
Tre Tucker WR	6 (3–9)	4 (1–6)	28 (4–72)	0.2
Michael Mayer TE	5 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	28 (4–69)	0.2
Ashton Jeanty RB	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	27 (4–69)	0.2
Cody White WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–37)	0.1
Ian Thomas TE	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)	2 (0–26)	0.0

NE passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Drake Maye QB	31 (23–40)	21 (14–28)	193 (114–284)	1.5	0.7
Efton Chism III WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–1)	0 (0–5)	0.0	0.0

NE rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
TreVeyon Henderson RB	9 (5–14)	34 (9–80)	0.3
Rhamondre Stevenson RB	8 (4–13)	31 (8–73)	0.3
Drake Maye QB	6 (3–10)	29 (7–72)	0.2
Corey Kiner RB	2 (1–5)	6 (0–27)	0.1

NE receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Romeo Doubs WR	7 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	39 (8–89)	0.3
Hunter Henry TE	5 (2–9)	4 (1–7)	31 (4–78)	0.3
Rhamondre Stevenson RB	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	25 (3–66)	0.2
DeMario Douglas WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	24 (2–65)	0.2
Efton Chism III WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–41)	0.1
Kyle Williams WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–41)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Rhamondre Stevenson RB	NE	41.2%	8.7%	13.3%
Ashton Jeanty RB	LV	41.2%	8.9%	12.1%
TreVeyon Henderson RB	NE	32.4%	5.3%	9.6%
Romeo Doubs WR	NE	27.9%	3.9%	8.2%
Brock Bowers TE	LV	25.4%	3.4%	6.9%
Hunter Henry TE	NE	22.4%	2.5%	6.2%
DeMario Douglas WR	NE	21.5%	2.2%	6.2%
Tre Tucker WR	LV	16.7%	1.4%	4.3%
Drake Maye QB	NE	16.6%	1.3%	4.5%
Michael Mayer TE	LV	15.1%	1.3%	3.7%
Mike Washington Jr. RB	LV	12.4%	0.7%	3.3%
Kyle Williams WR	NE	11.1%	0.5%	2.9%
Efton Chism III WR	NE	10.8%	0.7%	2.7%
Corey Kiner RB	NE	9.8%	0.4%	2.6%
Lan Larison RB	NE	8.5%	0.3%	2.3%
Eli Raridon TE	NE	7.9%	0.3%	1.9%

First touchdown by team: LV 37.7% · NE 61.4% · no offensive touchdown 0.9%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: LV 17 – 23 NE

By quarter: LV 0 / 0 / 3 / 14 · NE 6 / 10 / 7 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LV–NE)
1	NE	56	fg	10	55	0–3
1	LV	78	punt	9	25	0–3
1	NE	93	fg	6	83	0–6
1	LV	67	turnover	3	20	0–6
1	NE	53	fg	7	34	0–9
2	LV	65	downs	4	50	0–9
2	NE	80	punt	3	7	0–9
2	LV	81	turnover	1	29	0–9
2	NE	50	punt	4	11	0–9
2	LV	99	punt	3	41	0–9
2	NE	91	td	5	91	0–16
2	LV	65	fg	14	64	3–16
3	NE	61	punt	6	-4	3–16
3	LV	74	turnover	1	35	3–16
3	NE	10	td	9	10	3–23
3	LV	65	td	8	65	10–23
4	NE	86	punt	5	24	10–23
4	LV	90	td	9	90	17–23
4	NE	73	end half	2	-1	17–23

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: LV 24 – 32 NE

By quarter: LV 21 / 0 / 3 / 0 · NE 7 / 15 / 7 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LV–NE)
1	LV	69	td	6	69	7–0
1	NE	73	td	13	73	7–7
1	LV	68	td	2	68	14–7
1	NE	67	punt	3	-3	14–7
1	LV	72	punt	4	8	14–7
1	NE	69	opp td	4	35	21–7
1	NE	65	td	5	65	21–15
2	LV	65	punt	3	12	21–15
2	NE	76	punt	8	6	21–15
2	LV	46	punt	3	14	21–15
2	NE	99	td	9	99	21–22
2	LV	65	fg miss	8	56	21–22
2	NE	83	end half	3	-1	21–22
2	NE	60	punt	6	5	21–22
3	LV	84	fg miss	8	53	21–22
3	NE	61	td	8	61	21–29
3	LV	80	fg	5	53	24–29
3	NE	72	fg	10	61	24–32
4	LV	75	downs	7	2	24–32
4	NE	27	fg miss	10	7	24–32
4	LV	67	turnover	6	0	24–32
4	NE	8	end half	1	-1	24–32

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: LV 9 – 16 NE

By quarter: LV 0 / 6 / 3 / 0 · NE 0 / 3 / 3 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LV–NE)
1	LV	65	punt	6	5	0–0
1	NE	82	punt	3	4	0–0
1	LV	69	punt	5	8	0–0
1	NE	93	punt	7	4	0–0
1	LV	24	fg	11	6	3–0
2	NE	65	fg	13	61	3–3
2	LV	60	fg	3	26	6–3
2	NE	65	fg miss	3	26	6–3
2	LV	43	fg miss	6	14	6–3
2	NE	65	fg	5	64	6–6
3	LV	72	punt	9	9	6–6
3	NE	84	punt	3	33	6–6
3	LV	91	fg	7	83	9–6
3	NE	68	fg	9	26	9–9
4	LV	73	punt	3	2	9–9
4	NE	60	punt	3	9	9–9
4	LV	87	turnover	3	0	9–9
4	NE	2	td	7	2	9–16
4	LV	67	fg miss	7	32	9–16
4	NE	67	end half	3	-1	9–16

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-09 19:42 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Seed	f844e9c4 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 40 / margin.median 8 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means NE 24.12 / LV 16.08
Availability	injuries@2026-10-09T19:40:14Z+rosters@2026-10-09T19:40:14Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872986:53a1967612f58b49

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.