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NFL · IND @ PIT · Simulation

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

IND 21 — 25 PIT · win chance IND 39.7% · PIT 57.7% · total 46

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

39.3%IND win in the simulated games

60.3%PIT win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

2.9%game goes to overtime

IND 21 – 24 PITmedian score · averages 21.29 – 24.78

45median total · 80% of games 30–63

PIT by 4median margin · 80% range: IND by 14 to PIT by 21

45.0%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.6% · 6.8%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: PIT points minus IND points (below 0 means IND won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (4). Range shown -48 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (45). Range shown 4 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
IND	10	21	34	21.29
PIT	13	24	37	24.78

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	IND median (80%)	PIT median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	IND wins it	PIT wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–17)	36.7%	45.3%	18.0%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	38.4%	49.1%	12.5%
Q3	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–18)	36.0%	45.1%	18.9%
Q4	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	12 (3–21)	37.3%	46.9%	15.9%
1st half	10 (3–20)	13 (3–22)	23 (13–35)	40.0%	53.3%	6.7%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	11 (3–21)	21 (10–34)	38.9%	53.0%	8.1%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	IND	PIT
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	63 (50–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (25–43)
Completions	23 (16–31)	22 (15–29)
Passing yards	207 (124–301)	212 (129–308)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–34)	26 (18–36)
Rushing yards	115 (56–194)	127 (64–211)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
IND	7.4%	23.2%	30.4%	22.9%	11.7%	4.4%
PIT	4.1%	15.6%	28.1%	26.6%	17.0%	8.6%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

IND passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Daniel Jones QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–31)	207 (124–301)	1.4	0.9

IND rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jonathan Taylor RB	14 (9–20)	62 (24–122)	0.5
Daniel Jones QB	6 (3–9)	22 (4–58)	0.1
DJ Giddens RB	2 (0–4)	6 (0–30)	0.1
Seth McGowan RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–26)	0.1

IND receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Josh Downs WR	7 (4–11)	4 (2–8)	39 (8–89)	0.3
Tyler Warren TE	7 (4–11)	5 (2–9)	39 (10–88)	0.3
Keenan Allen WR	7 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	35 (7–82)	0.3
Jonathan Taylor RB	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	18 (0–57)	0.2
Laquon Treadwell WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–51)	0.1
Mo Alie-Cox TE	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)	3 (0–31)	0.1

PIT passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Aaron Rodgers QB	33 (24–42)	21 (15–29)	210 (127–305)	1.7	0.7

PIT rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jaylen Warren RB	14 (8–20)	70 (27–133)	0.6
Rico Dowdle RB	6 (3–10)	22 (4–60)	0.3
Aaron Rodgers QB	4 (1–6)	13 (1–43)	0.1
Travis Homer RB	1 (0–3)	3 (0–22)	0.1

PIT receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
DK Metcalf WR	7 (4–11)	4 (2–7)	39 (8–91)	0.4
Roman Wilson WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	26 (3–70)	0.3
Pat Freiermuth TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	22 (1–62)	0.2
Jaylen Warren RB	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	22 (1–61)	0.2
Darnell Washington TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	16 (0–54)	0.2
Germie Bernard WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–46)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Jaylen Warren RB	PIT	54.8%	17.4%	15.7%
Jonathan Taylor RB	IND	49.5%	14.0%	13.2%
Rico Dowdle RB	PIT	32.8%	5.0%	7.7%
DK Metcalf WR	PIT	31.1%	5.0%	7.0%
Tyler Warren TE	IND	27.6%	4.0%	6.4%
Josh Downs WR	IND	26.7%	3.5%	6.3%
Keenan Allen WR	IND	25.4%	3.1%	5.6%
Roman Wilson WR	PIT	22.7%	2.3%	5.4%
Pat Freiermuth TE	PIT	20.0%	1.9%	4.7%
Darnell Washington TE	PIT	15.4%	1.3%	3.5%
Daniel Jones QB	IND	13.7%	0.9%	3.0%
Germie Bernard WR	PIT	13.6%	0.9%	3.0%
Laquon Treadwell WR	IND	11.4%	0.6%	2.3%
Seth McGowan RB	IND	10.5%	0.6%	2.2%
Other / unallocated	PIT	9.2%	0.4%	2.2%
DJ Giddens RB	IND	8.9%	0.4%	1.9%

First touchdown by team: IND 45.0% · PIT 54.7% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: IND 21 – 24 PIT

By quarter: IND 7 / 3 / 11 / 0 · PIT 7 / 10 / 0 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (IND–PIT)
1	IND	78	turnover	6	25	0–0
1	PIT	56	opp td	3	45	7–0
1	PIT	68	td	14	68	7–7
1	IND	83	fg	7	77	10–7
2	PIT	70	turnover	5	18	10–7
2	IND	47	fg miss	3	7	10–7
2	PIT	57	fg	10	43	10–10
2	IND	69	punt	5	14	10–10
2	PIT	84	td	10	84	10–17
2	PIT	74	punt	3	0	10–17
3	IND	50	td	5	50	18–17
3	PIT	77	downs	8	43	18–17
3	IND	66	fg	9	41	21–17
3	PIT	70	td	8	70	21–24
4	IND	69	downs	10	12	21–24
4	PIT	38	fg miss	9	1	21–24
4	IND	21	end half	1	11	21–24

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: IND 30 – 33 PIT

By quarter: IND 7 / 13 / 3 / 7 · PIT 3 / 3 / 13 / 14

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (IND–PIT)
1	IND	60	punt	6	0	0–0
1	PIT	99	punt	6	10	0–0
1	IND	37	td	8	37	7–0
1	PIT	65	fg	7	63	7–3
1	IND	83	fg	9	56	10–3
2	PIT	82	fg	4	76	10–6
2	IND	65	td	5	65	17–6
2	PIT	69	punt	3	4	17–6
2	IND	76	fg	16	19	20–6
2	PIT	72	td	6	72	20–12
3	IND	65	punt	3	21	20–12
3	PIT	99	td	5	99	20–19
3	IND	80	fg	8	50	23–19
3	PIT	64	td	9	64	23–26
4	IND	67	punt	3	9	23–26
4	PIT	87	punt	6	5	23–26
4	IND	67	td	9	67	30–26
4	PIT	61	td	6	61	30–33
4	IND	74	end half	15	8	30–33

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: IND 13 – 17 PIT

By quarter: IND 3 / 10 / 0 / 0 · PIT 0 / 0 / 3 / 14

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (IND–PIT)
1	IND	44	downs	12	5	0–0
1	PIT	87	punt	3	18	0–0
1	IND	69	fg	10	46	3–0
1	PIT	71	downs	8	22	3–0
1	IND	51	turnover	1	44	3–0
1	PIT	99	punt	5	9	3–0
2	IND	59	punt	3	3	3–0
2	PIT	72	punt	3	17	3–0
2	IND	98	fg	3	79	6–0
2	PIT	75	punt	5	3	6–0
2	IND	62	td	8	62	13–0
2	PIT	65	end half	1	5	13–0
2	PIT	66	punt	3	9	13–0
3	IND	86	punt	7	8	13–0
3	PIT	36	fg	5	14	13–3
3	IND	62	punt	3	3	13–3
3	PIT	79	punt	6	29	13–3
3	IND	90	punt	3	67	13–3
3	PIT	99	td	6	99	13–10
4	IND	65	turnover	2	5	13–10
4	PIT	36	fg miss	4	23	13–10
4	IND	94	punt	3	17	13–10
4	PIT	50	td	9	50	13–17
4	IND	69	end half	6	2	13–17

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-10 00:32 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Seed	8e3c97fb · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 46 / margin.median 4 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means PIT 24.96 / IND 20.91
Availability	injuries@2026-10-10T00:30:27Z+rosters@2026-10-10T00:30:27Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872985:4e34e24b4130f713

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.