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NFL · HOU @ TEN · Simulation

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

HOU 24 — 19 TEN · win chance HOU 70.0% · TEN 27.0% · total 43

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

63.8%HOU win in the simulated games

35.8%TEN win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.4%game goes to overtime

HOU 24 – 19 TENmedian score · averages 23.99 – 19.05

43median total · 80% of games 27–59

HOU by 5median margin · 80% range: HOU by 23 to TEN by 13

42.7%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.6% · 6.5%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: TEN points minus HOU points (below 0 means HOU won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-5). Range shown -63 to 45.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (43). Range shown 0 to 92.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
HOU	12	24	37	23.99
TEN	7	19	31	19.05

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	HOU median (80%)	TEN median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	HOU wins it	TEN wins it	Level
Q1	6 (0–11)	3 (0–10)	9 (3–17)	46.8%	34.7%	18.6%
Q2	7 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	13 (3–21)	50.9%	35.5%	13.6%
Q3	6 (0–13)	3 (0–10)	9 (3–17)	47.3%	33.4%	19.4%
Q4	7 (0–14)	5 (0–11)	10 (3–21)	48.8%	34.2%	17.0%
1st half	13 (3–21)	10 (2–18)	22 (12–34)	56.6%	36.3%	7.1%
2nd half	10 (3–21)	9 (0–17)	20 (10–33)	55.2%	36.3%	8.5%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	HOU	TEN
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	63 (51–76)	62 (49–75)
Pass attempts	33 (24–43)	34 (25–44)
Completions	22 (15–29)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	216 (132–312)	197 (116–291)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	27 (19–36)	24 (17–33)
Rushing yards	116 (56–196)	109 (51–186)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
HOU	5.3%	17.9%	29.1%	26.1%	14.3%	7.3%
TEN	11.7%	27.9%	29.9%	20.2%	7.6%	2.8%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

HOU passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
C.J. Stroud QB	33 (24–43)	22 (15–29)	216 (132–312)	1.6	0.7

HOU rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
David Montgomery RB	11 (6–16)	39 (12–87)	0.4
Woody Marks RB	8 (4–12)	30 (7–73)	0.3
C.J. Stroud QB	5 (2–8)	23 (4–60)	0.1
Jaylin Noel WR	1 (0–2)	0 (0–13)	0.0

HOU receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Nico Collins WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	39 (8–92)	0.3
Xavier Hutchinson WR	4 (2–7)	2 (1–5)	21 (0–61)	0.2
Dalton Schultz TE	4 (1–7)	3 (1–5)	21 (1–61)	0.2
Jayden Higgins WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–52)	0.1
Kayshon Boutte WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	10 (0–42)	0.1
Jared Wayne WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–41)	0.1

TEN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Cam Ward QB	29 (21–38)	20 (13–26)	169 (94–257)	1.1	0.9

TEN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Tony Pollard RB	13 (8–19)	53 (19–109)	0.4
Cam Ward QB	4 (2–7)	17 (2–49)	0.1
Tyjae Spears RB	3 (1–6)	11 (0–40)	0.1
Nicholas Singleton RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–27)	0.1

TEN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Carnell Tate WR	9 (5–14)	6 (3–10)	53 (17–109)	0.3
Wan'Dale Robinson WR	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	27 (4–70)	0.2
Elic Ayomanor WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–50)	0.1
Gunnar Helm TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–47)	0.1
Tony Pollard RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–41)	0.1
Calvin Ridley WR	3 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–42)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Tony Pollard RB	TEN	40.7%	9.3%	11.0%
David Montgomery RB	HOU	36.8%	7.3%	10.2%
Woody Marks RB	HOU	30.8%	4.7%	8.2%
Carnell Tate WR	TEN	29.4%	4.4%	7.9%
Nico Collins WR	HOU	27.3%	3.6%	7.0%
Xavier Hutchinson WR	HOU	21.8%	2.1%	5.4%
Wan'Dale Robinson WR	TEN	19.5%	1.9%	4.5%
Tyjae Spears RB	TEN	18.2%	1.6%	4.3%
Dalton Schultz TE	HOU	17.6%	1.4%	4.7%
Jayden Higgins WR	HOU	13.7%	1.0%	3.1%
C.J. Stroud QB	HOU	12.6%	0.7%	3.0%
Jared Wayne WR	HOU	12.1%	0.7%	3.0%
Jaylin Noel WR	HOU	11.7%	0.6%	2.9%
Elic Ayomanor WR	TEN	11.6%	0.6%	2.7%
Gunnar Helm TE	TEN	11.5%	0.7%	2.5%
Kayshon Boutte WR	HOU	11.2%	0.5%	2.9%

First touchdown by team: HOU 57.7% · TEN 41.8% · no offensive touchdown 0.5%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: HOU 24 – 19 TEN

By quarter: HOU 0 / 7 / 14 / 3 · TEN 0 / 13 / 3 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (HOU–TEN)
1	HOU	69	downs	6	64	0–0
1	TEN	99	punt	3	0	0–0
1	HOU	54	turnover	6	6	0–0
1	TEN	99	punt	3	14	0–0
1	HOU	62	turnover	4	33	0–0
1	TEN	76	punt	3	36	0–0
1	HOU	99	turnover	2	26	0–0
1	TEN	35	punt	6	10	0–0
2	HOU	99	turnover	2	50	0–0
2	TEN	60	td	14	60	0–6
2	HOU	65	td	4	65	7–6
2	TEN	65	td	9	65	7–13
2	TEN	63	opp td	3	0	14–13
3	TEN	68	punt	3	5	14–13
3	HOU	70	td	6	70	21–13
3	TEN	77	fg miss	7	40	21–13
3	HOU	54	punt	3	0	21–13
3	TEN	84	fg	9	83	21–16
3	HOU	66	punt	3	2	21–16
4	TEN	79	punt	3	4	21–16
4	HOU	72	fg	8	71	24–16
4	TEN	80	fg	14	66	24–19
4	HOU	70	end half	3	11	24–19

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: HOU 32 – 27 TEN

By quarter: HOU 3 / 15 / 7 / 7 · TEN 3 / 7 / 14 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (HOU–TEN)
1	TEN	80	fg	6	46	0–3
1	HOU	59	fg	9	44	3–3
1	TEN	77	punt	3	23	3–3
1	HOU	96	punt	6	1	3–3
1	TEN	68	punt	3	5	3–3
1	HOU	85	td	4	85	11–3
2	TEN	65	td	14	65	11–10
2	HOU	70	td	1	70	18–10
2	TEN	82	punt	7	13	18–10
2	HOU	73	end half	9	-1	18–10
2	HOU	68	td	6	68	25–10
3	TEN	76	downs	4	33	25–10
3	HOU	57	turnover	1	1	25–10
3	TEN	64	td	12	64	25–17
3	HOU	69	opp td	3	5	25–24
3	HOU	80	punt	6	2	25–24
4	TEN	55	fg	5	53	25–27
4	HOU	66	td	11	66	32–27
4	TEN	75	downs	4	43	32–27
4	HOU	68	punt	3	-10	32–27
4	TEN	52	turnover	3	-6	32–27
4	HOU	52	end half	1	44	32–27

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: HOU 16 – 11 TEN

By quarter: HOU 6 / 0 / 7 / 3 · TEN 3 / 8 / 0 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (HOU–TEN)
1	HOU	69	fg	3	30	3–0
1	TEN	56	fg	11	35	3–3
1	HOU	80	fg	6	52	6–3
1	TEN	74	punt	3	5	6–3
1	HOU	95	turnover	4	0	6–3
1	TEN	56	punt	8	14	6–3
2	HOU	99	fg miss	7	86	6–3
2	TEN	79	td	8	79	6–11
2	HOU	68	fg miss	10	20	6–11
2	TEN	68	punt	3	-7	6–11
3	HOU	56	td	11	56	13–11
3	TEN	85	punt	9	-2	13–11
3	HOU	62	turnover	10	53	13–11
3	TEN	99	punt	3	6	13–11
3	HOU	74	punt	3	30	13–11
4	TEN	99	punt	3	14	13–11
4	HOU	49	fg	6	16	16–11
4	TEN	83	fg miss	5	79	16–11
4	HOU	88	end half	3	60	16–11

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-08 00:46 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Seed	9bc009c9 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 43 / margin.median -5 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means TEN 18.98 / HOU 23.96
Availability	injuries@2026-10-08T00:43:59Z+rosters@2026-10-08T00:43:59Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872984:d78ac96d1397dc12

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.