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NFL · CLE @ NYJ · Simulation

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

CLE 21 — 19 NYJ · win chance CLE 56.6% · NYJ 40.3% · total 40

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

58.6%CLE win in the simulated games

40.9%NYJ win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.3%game goes to overtime

CLE 21 – 19 NYJmedian score · averages 21.79 – 18.95

40median total · 80% of games 25–57

CLE by 3median margin · 80% range: CLE by 20 to NYJ by 15

44.7%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

9.3% · 6.8%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: NYJ points minus CLE points (below 0 means CLE won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-3). Range shown -51 to 51.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (40). Range shown 0 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
CLE	10	21	34	21.79
NYJ	7	19	31	18.95

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	CLE median (80%)	NYJ median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	CLE wins it	NYJ wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	7 (3–17)	44.6%	36.0%	19.4%
Q2	7 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	12 (3–21)	47.0%	38.8%	14.1%
Q3	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	7 (0–17)	43.1%	36.1%	20.8%
Q4	6 (0–13)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–20)	45.3%	36.8%	18.0%
1st half	10 (3–21)	10 (0–18)	20 (10–33)	52.9%	40.0%	7.1%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	9 (0–17)	19 (9–31)	51.4%	40.2%	8.4%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	CLE	NYJ
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	63 (50–76)	62 (50–75)
Pass attempts	33 (24–43)	34 (25–44)
Completions	22 (15–30)	23 (16–31)
Passing yards	202 (120–296)	196 (116–289)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	26 (18–36)	25 (17–34)
Rushing yards	112 (55–192)	104 (50–181)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
CLE	8.3%	22.8%	30.0%	23.8%	10.7%	4.3%
NYJ	11.7%	29.3%	30.8%	18.5%	7.4%	2.3%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

CLE passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Deshaun Watson QB	33 (24–43)	22 (15–30)	202 (120–296)	1.4	0.9

CLE rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Quinshon Judkins RB	12 (7–18)	44 (15–96)	0.4
Deshaun Watson QB	8 (5–13)	36 (10–81)	0.2
Dylan Sampson RB	2 (0–4)	6 (0–28)	0.1
Raheim Sanders RB	1 (0–3)	3 (0–23)	0.1

CLE receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
KC Concepcion WR	7 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	32 (6–78)	0.3
Denzel Boston WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	30 (3–78)	0.2
Harold Fannin Jr. TE	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	31 (5–76)	0.3
Quinshon Judkins RB	4 (1–6)	3 (1–5)	18 (0–54)	0.2
Jerry Jeudy WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–52)	0.1
Raheim Sanders RB	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–43)	0.1

NYJ passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Geno Smith QB	29 (21–38)	20 (14–27)	168 (94–256)	1.0	0.9

NYJ rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Braelon Allen RB	16 (10–23)	65 (26–126)	0.5
Geno Smith QB	5 (2–9)	19 (3–53)	0.1
Kene Nwangwu RB	2 (0–4)	3 (0–22)	0.1
Isaiah Davis RB	1 (0–3)	1 (0–18)	0.0

NYJ receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Garrett Wilson WR	9 (5–14)	6 (3–10)	50 (15–104)	0.3
Kenyon Sadiq TE	6 (3–9)	4 (1–6)	28 (4–73)	0.2
Mason Taylor TE	4 (2–8)	3 (1–5)	19 (1–56)	0.2
Isaiah Williams WR	4 (1–7)	3 (1–5)	19 (0–57)	0.1
Jeremy Ruckert TE	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	9 (0–40)	0.1
Braelon Allen RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–34)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Braelon Allen RB	NYJ	44.4%	10.6%	13.8%
Quinshon Judkins RB	CLE	43.7%	10.1%	13.3%
Garrett Wilson WR	NYJ	28.4%	4.0%	7.7%
KC Concepcion WR	CLE	27.3%	3.8%	7.8%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE	CLE	22.3%	2.3%	6.1%
Deshaun Watson QB	CLE	21.2%	2.3%	6.0%
Denzel Boston WR	CLE	19.7%	1.9%	5.1%
Kenyon Sadiq TE	NYJ	18.6%	1.6%	4.7%
Mason Taylor TE	NYJ	15.3%	1.2%	4.0%
Raheim Sanders RB	CLE	15.0%	1.0%	4.0%
Jerry Jeudy WR	CLE	14.2%	0.9%	3.7%
Isaiah Williams WR	NYJ	13.7%	0.7%	3.3%
Dylan Sampson RB	CLE	12.4%	0.5%	3.3%
Geno Smith QB	NYJ	10.0%	0.4%	2.6%
Jeremy Ruckert TE	NYJ	8.5%	0.3%	2.0%
Isaiah Bond WR	CLE	5.6%	0.2%	1.4%

First touchdown by team: CLE 53.9% · NYJ 45.1% · no offensive touchdown 1.0%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: CLE 22 – 19 NYJ

By quarter: CLE 7 / 5 / 7 / 3 · NYJ 0 / 6 / 3 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CLE–NYJ)
1	CLE	67	punt	3	2	0–0
1	NYJ	73	punt	8	9	0–0
1	CLE	82	punt	3	13	0–0
1	NYJ	67	downs	6	9	0–0
1	CLE	41	punt	3	-3	0–0
1	NYJ	99	opp td	3	1	7–0
1	NYJ	70	punt	4	1	7–0
2	CLE	68	turnover	1	-1	7–0
2	NYJ	37	fg miss	8	26	7–0
2	CLE	80	punt	3	21	7–0
2	NYJ	71	td	10	71	7–6
2	CLE	77	punt	4	41	7–6
2	NYJ	99	safety	4	-1	9–6
2	CLE	57	fg	6	30	12–6
2	NYJ	76	fg	8	44	12–9
3	CLE	67	td	5	67	19–9
3	NYJ	80	fg	14	42	19–12
4	CLE	74	punt	3	5	19–12
4	NYJ	70	punt	3	-4	19–12
4	CLE	68	punt	3	0	19–12
4	NYJ	59	td	4	59	19–19
4	CLE	69	fg	8	34	22–19
4	NYJ	72	downs	4	15	22–19
4	CLE	43	end half	1	11	22–19

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: CLE 30 – 27 NYJ

By quarter: CLE 7 / 7 / 0 / 16 · NYJ 6 / 0 / 14 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CLE–NYJ)
1	CLE	73	turnover	10	21	0–0
1	NYJ	55	td	7	55	0–6
1	CLE	70	td	11	70	7–6
1	NYJ	80	fg miss	7	32	7–6
2	CLE	34	punt	3	13	7–6
2	NYJ	99	punt	3	6	7–6
2	CLE	62	punt	3	0	7–6
2	NYJ	96	downs	12	36	7–6
2	CLE	35	td	9	35	14–6
2	NYJ	52	td	7	52	14–13
3	CLE	70	punt	3	6	14–13
3	NYJ	64	turnover	7	11	14–13
3	CLE	50	downs	7	40	14–13
3	NYJ	90	punt	7	36	14–13
3	CLE	75	punt	3	8	14–13
3	NYJ	80	td	3	80	14–20
3	CLE	74	fg	7	41	17–20
4	NYJ	65	punt	5	1	17–20
4	CLE	99	punt	3	2	17–20
4	NYJ	56	punt	3	7	17–20
4	CLE	99	opp td	3	0	17–27
4	CLE	61	td	3	61	24–27
4	NYJ	65	turnover	2	12	24–27
4	CLE	51	fg	9	41	27–27
4	NYJ	68	punt	6	8	27–27
4	CLE	82	fg	3	75	30–27

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: CLE 14 – 11 NYJ

By quarter: CLE 0 / 0 / 0 / 14 · NYJ 8 / 0 / 3 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CLE–NYJ)
1	NYJ	82	punt	3	9	0–0
1	CLE	82	punt	3	0	0–0
1	NYJ	63	turnover	1	38	0–0
1	CLE	86	turnover	8	10	0–0
1	NYJ	43	td	11	43	0–8
1	CLE	69	punt	3	23	0–8
1	NYJ	97	punt	4	24	0–8
2	CLE	77	punt	6	20	0–8
2	NYJ	70	turnover	4	34	0–8
2	CLE	60	punt	3	2	0–8
2	NYJ	88	punt	4	25	0–8
2	CLE	72	turnover	1	48	0–8
2	NYJ	89	punt	3	1	0–8
2	CLE	66	turnover	6	44	0–8
2	NYJ	88	end half	3	60	0–8
2	CLE	57	punt	3	16	0–8
3	NYJ	68	punt	3	2	0–8
3	CLE	93	punt	6	6	0–8
3	NYJ	38	fg	7	7	0–11
3	CLE	73	punt	3	24	0–11
3	NYJ	99	punt	3	2	0–11
3	CLE	35	downs	7	9	0–11
4	NYJ	74	punt	3	-5	0–11
4	CLE	64	td	6	64	7–11
4	NYJ	81	turnover	1	0	7–11
4	CLE	32	td	3	32	14–11
4	NYJ	60	downs	15	40	14–11
4	CLE	75	punt	3	11	14–11
4	NYJ	67	turnover	2	0	14–11
4	CLE	44	end half	2	-1	14–11

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-09 18:38 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Seed	b3ff1ad4 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 40 / margin.median -2 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means NYJ 19 / CLE 21.1
Availability	injuries@2026-10-09T18:36:32Z+rosters@2026-10-09T18:36:32Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872983:80405a457ffa435b

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.