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NFL · CIN @ MIA · Simulation

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

CIN 21 — 25 MIA · win chance CIN 41.0% · MIA 56.3% · total 46

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

39.5%CIN win in the simulated games

60.0%MIA win in the simulated games

0.5%tie after overtime

3.2%game goes to overtime

CIN 21 – 24 MIAmedian score · averages 21.18 – 24.81

45median total · 80% of games 30–63

MIA by 4median margin · 80% range: CIN by 14 to MIA by 21

44.8%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.4% · 6.8%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: MIA points minus CIN points (below 0 means CIN won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (4). Range shown -51 to 63.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (45). Range shown 0 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
CIN	10	21	34	21.18
MIA	13	24	37	24.81

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	CIN median (80%)	MIA median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	CIN wins it	MIA wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–17)	36.5%	45.6%	17.9%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	38.4%	49.1%	12.5%
Q3	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–17)	36.0%	45.3%	18.7%
Q4	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	11 (3–21)	36.3%	47.0%	16.7%
1st half	10 (3–20)	13 (3–22)	23 (13–36)	39.8%	53.7%	6.5%
2nd half	10 (3–19)	11 (3–21)	21 (10–34)	38.5%	52.6%	8.8%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	CIN	MIA
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (25–43)
Completions	23 (16–31)	21 (15–29)
Passing yards	212 (128–308)	211 (127–308)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–34)	26 (18–36)
Rushing yards	109 (52–186)	130 (65–214)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
CIN	7.8%	22.9%	30.0%	23.8%	11.4%	4.3%
MIA	3.9%	16.4%	27.3%	26.8%	16.8%	8.9%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

CIN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Joe Burrow QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–31)	212 (128–308)	1.4	0.9

CIN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Chase Brown RB	14 (9–21)	59 (22–118)	0.5
Joe Burrow QB	5 (2–8)	20 (3–56)	0.1
Samaje Perine RB	4 (1–7)	13 (1–42)	0.1
Tahj Brooks RB	0 (0–1)	0 (0–7)	0.0

CIN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Tee Higgins WR	7 (4–11)	4 (2–8)	42 (9–95)	0.3
Ja'Marr Chase WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	34 (7–81)	0.3
Chase Brown RB	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	20 (2–57)	0.2
Mike Gesicki TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	16 (0–54)	0.1
Dohnte Meyers WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–46)	0.1
Mitchell Tinsley WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–3)	10 (0–43)	0.1

MIA passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Malik Willis QB	29 (21–38)	18 (13–25)	181 (105–274)	1.5	0.6

MIA rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Ollie Gordon II RB	11 (6–16)	50 (17–106)	0.4
Malik Willis QB	7 (4–12)	37 (11–82)	0.2
Jaylen Wright RB	6 (3–9)	20 (3–57)	0.2
Malik Washington WR	2 (0–4)	4 (0–24)	0.1

MIA receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Malik Washington WR	8 (5–12)	5 (3–9)	50 (14–106)	0.4
Greg Dulcich TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	27 (3–73)	0.3
Chris Bell WR	4 (2–8)	2 (1–5)	22 (0–64)	0.2
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–5)	20 (0–61)	0.2
DJ Herman FB	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–53)	0.2
Will Kacmarek TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–39)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Chase Brown RB	CIN	50.0%	14.5%	13.2%
Ollie Gordon II RB	MIA	41.7%	9.8%	11.1%
Malik Washington WR	MIA	40.4%	8.8%	10.5%
Tee Higgins WR	CIN	26.1%	3.4%	6.3%
Ja'Marr Chase WR	CIN	23.1%	2.4%	5.4%
Greg Dulcich TE	MIA	22.1%	2.5%	5.2%
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	MIA	21.7%	2.4%	5.1%
Malik Willis QB	MIA	21.6%	2.3%	4.7%
Jaylen Wright RB	MIA	20.9%	2.2%	4.9%
Chris Bell WR	MIA	20.7%	2.3%	4.7%
Samaje Perine RB	CIN	18.3%	1.9%	4.2%
DJ Herman FB	MIA	15.3%	1.3%	3.5%
Mike Gesicki TE	CIN	12.6%	0.8%	2.9%
Dohnte Meyers WR	CIN	11.9%	0.7%	2.4%
Joe Burrow QB	CIN	11.9%	0.7%	2.5%
Mitchell Tinsley WR	CIN	11.0%	0.5%	2.2%

First touchdown by team: CIN 44.9% · MIA 54.8% · no offensive touchdown 0.4%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: CIN 21 – 25 MIA

By quarter: CIN 7 / 7 / 7 / 0 · MIA 6 / 0 / 5 / 14

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CIN–MIA)
1	MIA	72	fg	6	58	0–3
1	CIN	72	td	6	72	7–3
1	MIA	72	fg	7	71	7–6
1	CIN	77	punt	3	19	7–6
1	MIA	88	punt	11	11	7–6
2	CIN	56	punt	6	1	7–6
2	MIA	84	turnover	6	40	7–6
2	CIN	53	td	12	53	14–6
2	CIN	66	td	4	66	21–6
3	MIA	71	downs	9	66	21–6
3	CIN	95	safety	3	-5	21–8
3	MIA	57	fg	9	20	21–11
3	CIN	65	punt	7	1	21–11
4	MIA	76	td	1	76	21–18
4	CIN	70	punt	3	14	21–18
4	MIA	87	td	14	87	21–25
4	CIN	69	downs	8	24	21–25
4	MIA	55	end half	1	49	21–25

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: CIN 30 – 33 MIA

By quarter: CIN 0 / 16 / 7 / 7 · MIA 13 / 0 / 13 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CIN–MIA)
1	MIA	76	punt	7	8	0–0
1	CIN	55	turnover	1	39	0–0
1	MIA	84	td	6	84	0–7
1	CIN	63	punt	3	3	0–7
1	MIA	99	td	8	99	0–13
1	CIN	73	td	7	73	7–13
2	MIA	71	punt	3	1	7–13
2	CIN	67	fg	4	55	10–13
2	MIA	69	punt	4	21	10–13
2	CIN	81	fg	4	54	13–13
2	MIA	70	punt	3	1	13–13
2	CIN	68	fg	10	50	16–13
2	CIN	66	td	2	66	23–13
3	MIA	66	punt	3	-6	23–13
3	CIN	85	turnover	3	49	23–13
3	MIA	66	td	6	66	23–19
3	CIN	65	punt	3	7	23–19
3	MIA	76	td	6	76	23–26
3	CIN	60	punt	3	9	23–26
3	MIA	94	punt	3	2	23–26
4	CIN	58	punt	3	8	23–26
4	MIA	99	td	5	99	23–33
4	CIN	72	td	4	72	30–33
4	MIA	65	punt	3	22	30–33
4	CIN	99	punt	3	9	30–33
4	MIA	44	end half	1	-3	30–33

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: CIN 13 – 17 MIA

By quarter: CIN 0 / 6 / 0 / 7 · MIA 0 / 14 / 0 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CIN–MIA)
1	MIA	72	punt	8	31	0–0
1	CIN	99	downs	7	60	0–0
1	MIA	77	punt	5	17	0–0
1	CIN	50	fg	10	35	3–0
2	MIA	65	downs	6	38	3–0
2	CIN	73	punt	3	24	3–0
2	MIA	86	td	9	86	3–7
2	CIN	89	punt	3	18	3–7
2	MIA	74	td	3	74	3–14
2	CIN	65	fg	7	59	6–14
2	CIN	70	punt	3	6	6–14
3	MIA	70	punt	5	6	6–14
3	CIN	70	punt	3	13	6–14
3	MIA	71	punt	3	12	6–14
3	CIN	79	punt	5	6	6–14
3	MIA	62	turnover	4	24	6–14
3	CIN	61	turnover	5	43	6–14
3	MIA	90	fg	9	63	6–17
4	CIN	78	punt	3	1	6–17
4	MIA	61	punt	3	1	6–17
4	CIN	75	td	10	75	13–17
4	MIA	63	end half	7	17	13–17

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-10 00:32 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-11 17:00 UTC
Seed	03c52a2c · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 46 / margin.median 4 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means MIA 25.06 / CIN 21.15
Availability	injuries@2026-10-10T00:30:27Z+rosters@2026-10-10T00:30:27Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872982:0d122cd15015f1e2

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.