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NFL · PHI @ JAX · Simulation

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

PHI 22 — 21 JAX · win chance PHI 50.1% · JAX 47.0% · total 43

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

52.2%PHI win in the simulated games

47.3%JAX win in the simulated games

0.5%tie after overtime

3.6%game goes to overtime

PHI 21 – 20 JAXmedian score · averages 21.88 – 20.98

43median total · 80% of games 27–59

PHI by 1median margin · 80% range: PHI by 19 to JAX by 17

46.3%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.4% · 7.1%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: JAX points minus PHI points (below 0 means PHI won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-1). Range shown -51 to 48.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (43). Range shown 0 to 92.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
PHI	10	21	34	21.88
JAX	9	20	33	20.98

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	PHI median (80%)	JAX median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	PHI wins it	JAX wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	9 (3–17)	41.6%	39.9%	18.5%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–21)	44.9%	41.5%	13.6%
Q3	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	9 (3–17)	41.2%	39.1%	19.7%
Q4	6 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–20)	43.2%	40.2%	16.6%
1st half	10 (3–20)	10 (3–20)	22 (10–34)	48.3%	44.8%	6.9%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	10 (3–18)	20 (10–32)	47.9%	43.4%	8.7%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	PHI	JAX
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	62 (50–75)
Pass attempts	33 (25–43)	33 (25–44)
Completions	22 (15–29)	23 (16–31)
Passing yards	202 (120–295)	206 (122–298)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	26 (18–35)	25 (17–34)
Rushing yards	117 (58–200)	110 (53–189)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
PHI	7.5%	21.7%	30.7%	23.4%	11.9%	4.9%
JAX	8.8%	23.7%	31.0%	22.6%	10.4%	3.5%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

PHI passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jalen Hurts QB	33 (25–43)	22 (15–29)	202 (120–295)	1.4	0.8

PHI rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jalen Hurts QB	17 (11–24)	81 (34–147)	0.5
Will Shipley RB	7 (4–11)	27 (6–69)	0.3
Makai Lemon WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–6)	0.0

PHI receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Dontayvion Wicks WR	7 (3–11)	4 (2–7)	38 (8–88)	0.3
Dallas Goedert TE	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	34 (6–81)	0.3
Makai Lemon WR	6 (3–9)	4 (1–7)	28 (4–71)	0.3
Zach Ertz TE	4 (2–7)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–56)	0.2
Darius Cooper WR	4 (1–7)	2 (1–5)	17 (0–55)	0.2
Johnny Mundt TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–34)	0.1

JAX passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Trevor Lawrence QB	30 (22–39)	20 (14–28)	183 (105–270)	1.2	0.8

JAX rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Bhayshul Tuten RB	10 (6–15)	41 (12–90)	0.3
Trevor Lawrence QB	6 (3–9)	22 (4–57)	0.1
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB	5 (2–8)	16 (2–49)	0.2
Ameer Abdullah RB	1 (0–3)	3 (0–20)	0.1

JAX receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Parker Washington WR	7 (4–12)	5 (2–8)	41 (9–91)	0.3
Brenton Strange TE	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	34 (6–79)	0.3
Jakobi Meyers WR	5 (2–9)	4 (1–6)	29 (4–73)	0.2
Brian Thomas Jr. WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	20 (0–59)	0.2
Josh Cameron WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–35)	0.1
Bhayshul Tuten RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–34)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Jalen Hurts QB	PHI	42.9%	9.4%	11.8%
Bhayshul Tuten RB	JAX	34.3%	6.3%	9.3%
Will Shipley RB	PHI	29.4%	4.6%	7.9%
Parker Washington WR	JAX	27.1%	3.9%	7.0%
Dontayvion Wicks WR	PHI	26.2%	3.4%	7.1%
Makai Lemon WR	PHI	23.8%	2.5%	6.1%
Dallas Goedert TE	PHI	23.5%	2.6%	5.9%
Brenton Strange TE	JAX	22.6%	2.2%	5.5%
Jakobi Meyers WR	JAX	19.9%	1.9%	5.4%
Zach Ertz TE	PHI	16.0%	1.2%	3.9%
Brian Thomas Jr. WR	JAX	15.9%	1.3%	3.7%
Darius Cooper WR	PHI	15.2%	1.1%	3.7%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB	JAX	14.4%	1.0%	3.6%
Trevor Lawrence QB	JAX	12.7%	0.9%	3.0%
Other / unallocated	JAX	10.1%	0.6%	2.5%
Johnny Mundt TE	PHI	8.0%	0.3%	1.9%

First touchdown by team: PHI 51.4% · JAX 48.1% · no offensive touchdown 0.5%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: PHI 22 – 21 JAX

By quarter: PHI 3 / 10 / 6 / 3 · JAX 7 / 0 / 7 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (PHI–JAX)
1	PHI	73	turnover	2	59	0–0
1	JAX	81	punt	4	15	0–0
1	PHI	79	fg	7	60	3–0
1	JAX	65	td	12	65	3–7
1	PHI	72	downs	8	33	3–7
2	JAX	61	punt	4	26	3–7
2	PHI	91	fg	7	90	6–7
2	JAX	79	punt	6	16	6–7
2	PHI	93	td	5	93	13–7
2	JAX	68	punt	7	21	13–7
2	PHI	84	end half	3	-1	13–7
2	JAX	77	td	11	77	13–14
3	PHI	69	td	7	69	19–14
3	JAX	71	punt	3	24	19–14
3	PHI	87	punt	6	0	19–14
4	JAX	40	turnover	1	6	19–14
4	PHI	52	fg	8	51	22–14
4	JAX	47	td	6	47	22–21
4	PHI	69	punt	6	18	22–21
4	JAX	87	turnover	2	73	22–21
4	PHI	66	end half	2	-1	22–21

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: PHI 30 – 29 JAX

By quarter: PHI 7 / 10 / 0 / 13 · JAX 0 / 9 / 7 / 13

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (PHI–JAX)
1	JAX	60	punt	5	27	0–0
1	PHI	99	punt	3	22	0–0
1	JAX	60	punt	3	6	0–0
1	PHI	86	td	15	86	7–0
1	JAX	77	punt	3	20	7–0
1	PHI	88	turnover	3	14	7–0
1	JAX	32	turnover	1	7	7–0
1	PHI	54	td	7	54	14–0
2	JAX	76	turnover	1	24	14–0
2	PHI	53	fg	3	52	17–0
2	JAX	70	turnover	7	45	17–0
2	PHI	91	safety	3	-9	17–2
2	JAX	57	td	7	57	17–9
2	PHI	43	punt	3	-6	17–9
2	JAX	99	end half	3	23	17–9
2	PHI	74	punt	3	20	17–9
3	JAX	79	punt	3	-5	17–9
3	PHI	53	turnover	2	11	17–9
3	JAX	63	td	7	63	17–16
3	PHI	73	turnover	7	7	17–16
3	JAX	51	punt	3	3	17–16
3	PHI	99	punt	3	6	17–16
3	JAX	48	fg	6	17	17–19
4	PHI	76	punt	3	19	17–19
4	JAX	15	td	5	15	17–26
4	PHI	67	td	8	67	24–26
4	JAX	80	fg	10	63	24–29
4	PHI	60	td	3	60	30–29
4	JAX	71	end half	5	23	30–29

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: PHI 14 – 13 JAX

By quarter: PHI 0 / 7 / 7 / 0 · JAX 7 / 0 / 3 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (PHI–JAX)
1	JAX	65	punt	4	15	0–0
1	PHI	79	punt	5	-13	0–0
1	JAX	62	punt	3	5	0–0
1	PHI	99	punt	5	3	0–0
1	JAX	28	td	6	28	0–7
1	PHI	77	punt	6	-2	0–7
1	JAX	58	punt	5	3	0–7
2	PHI	69	punt	5	19	0–7
2	JAX	98	punt	3	15	0–7
2	PHI	76	punt	3	-9	0–7
2	JAX	56	downs	4	9	0–7
2	PHI	53	td	10	53	7–7
2	JAX	82	end half	10	25	7–7
2	PHI	67	punt	3	5	7–7
3	JAX	78	punt	6	26	7–7
3	PHI	92	td	12	92	14–7
3	JAX	77	fg	14	66	14–10
3	PHI	79	punt	7	22	14–10
4	JAX	89	downs	7	36	14–10
4	PHI	35	fg miss	11	-2	14–10
4	JAX	55	fg	6	33	14–13
4	PHI	48	downs	5	9	14–13
4	JAX	61	fg miss	7	30	14–13
4	PHI	61	end half	3	-1	14–13

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-10 00:32 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-11 13:30 UTC
Seed	48d883bd · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 43 / margin.median -1 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means JAX 21.02 / PHI 21.95
Availability	injuries@2026-10-10T00:30:27Z+rosters@2026-10-10T00:30:27Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872981:d5955d16fd8bea2e

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.