Today · Oct 10 · 19 events Games under way Settled· Oct 7

NFL · TB @ DAL · Simulation

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

TB 23 — 29 DAL · win chance TB 35.5% · DAL 61.8% · total 52

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

35.2%TB win in the simulated games

64.4%DAL win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.2%game goes to overtime

TB 23 – 29 DALmedian score · averages 23.7 – 28.92

52median total · 80% of games 36–70

DAL by 5median margin · 80% range: TB by 12 to DAL by 23

44.2%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

9.1% · 6.2%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: DAL points minus TB points (below 0 means TB won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (5). Range shown -51 to 57.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (52). Range shown 0 to 112.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
TB	12	23	36	23.7
DAL	16	29	41	28.92

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	TB median (80%)	DAL median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	TB wins it	DAL wins it	Level
Q1	6 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	34.2%	48.9%	16.9%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–15)	15 (7–24)	36.3%	51.7%	12.0%
Q3	6 (0–11)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	34.8%	48.0%	17.2%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	35.9%	49.1%	15.0%
1st half	12 (3–21)	14 (6–24)	27 (16–39)	36.4%	57.3%	6.3%
2nd half	10 (3–21)	14 (6–23)	24 (13–38)	35.9%	56.5%	7.6%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	TB	DAL
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	64 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (26–45)	33 (25–43)
Completions	23 (16–31)	23 (17–31)
Passing yards	226 (138–326)	244 (156–343)
Passing TDs	2 (0–3)	2 (1–4)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–1)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (17–33)	27 (19–36)
Rushing yards	118 (58–198)	132 (66–217)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–3)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
TB	4.3%	16.6%	27.6%	26.4%	16.6%	8.6%
DAL	1.7%	8.4%	20.4%	27.6%	22.9%	19.1%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

TB passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jalon Daniels QB	34 (26–45)	23 (16–31)	226 (138–326)	1.7	0.7

TB rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Bucky Irving RB	13 (8–18)	56 (21–114)	0.5
Jalon Daniels QB	5 (2–8)	22 (4–59)	0.1
Sean Tucker RB	3 (1–5)	8 (0–36)	0.1
Kenny Gainwell RB	3 (1–5)	8 (0–33)	0.1

TB receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Cade Otton TE	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	36 (7–85)	0.3
Emeka Egbuka WR	6 (3–10)	4 (1–7)	35 (6–83)	0.3
Chris Godwin Jr. WR	5 (2–9)	4 (2–7)	32 (6–79)	0.3
Ted Hurst III WR	4 (2–7)	2 (1–5)	22 (0–64)	0.2
Bucky Irving RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	16 (0–52)	0.2
Kenny Gainwell RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–48)	0.1

DAL passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Dak Prescott QB	33 (25–43)	23 (17–31)	244 (156–343)	2.1	0.5

DAL rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Javonte Williams RB	14 (9–20)	63 (24–123)	0.6
Dak Prescott QB	4 (2–7)	18 (2–51)	0.1
Malik Davis RB	4 (2–7)	16 (1–49)	0.2
Tyler Goodson RB	3 (1–6)	10 (0–37)	0.1

DAL receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
CeeDee Lamb WR	9 (5–13)	7 (3–10)	70 (26–131)	0.6
George Pickens WR	6 (3–9)	4 (1–7)	38 (7–88)	0.3
Ryan Flournoy WR	4 (2–8)	3 (1–5)	24 (2–67)	0.3
Jake Ferguson TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–5)	16 (0–53)	0.2
Javonte Williams RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–4)	15 (0–50)	0.2
Luke Schoonmaker TE	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)	0 (0–24)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Javonte Williams RB	DAL	58.9%	20.3%	14.6%
Bucky Irving RB	TB	51.2%	15.4%	10.8%
CeeDee Lamb WR	DAL	45.6%	11.1%	10.7%
George Pickens WR	DAL	30.0%	4.5%	6.0%
Emeka Egbuka WR	TB	27.5%	3.7%	5.1%
Cade Otton TE	TB	26.4%	3.5%	5.2%
Ryan Flournoy WR	DAL	25.2%	3.3%	5.1%
Chris Godwin Jr. WR	TB	24.9%	2.9%	4.5%
Kenny Gainwell RB	TB	23.3%	2.7%	4.3%
Malik Davis RB	DAL	21.1%	2.0%	4.2%
Ted Hurst III WR	TB	18.7%	1.8%	3.3%
Jake Ferguson TE	DAL	18.6%	1.8%	3.4%
Tyler Goodson RB	DAL	17.1%	1.5%	3.2%
Jalon Daniels QB	TB	12.9%	0.8%	2.4%
Other / unallocated	DAL	12.5%	0.7%	2.0%
Tez Johnson WR	TB	12.4%	0.7%	2.3%

First touchdown by team: TB 42.4% · DAL 57.5% · no offensive touchdown 0.1%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: TB 24 – 29 DAL

By quarter: TB 0 / 3 / 7 / 14 · DAL 3 / 19 / 7 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (TB–DAL)
1	DAL	73	fg	9	48	0–3
1	TB	60	turnover	12	22	0–3
1	DAL	87	punt	5	9	0–3
2	TB	59	punt	3	12	0–3
2	DAL	79	td	6	79	0–9
2	TB	83	turnover	1	15	0–9
2	DAL	22	td	2	22	0–15
2	TB	73	fg miss	3	28	0–15
2	DAL	47	td	6	47	0–22
2	TB	67	fg	8	52	3–22
2	TB	40	punt	3	-8	3–22
3	DAL	80	punt	3	-7	3–22
3	TB	73	turnover	3	38	3–22
3	DAL	65	td	14	65	3–29
3	TB	65	td	2	65	10–29
3	DAL	71	punt	6	9	10–29
4	TB	66	td	9	66	17–29
4	DAL	68	punt	6	-9	17–29
4	TB	58	td	14	58	24–29

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: TB 33 – 37 DAL

By quarter: TB 7 / 7 / 7 / 12 · DAL 0 / 10 / 7 / 20

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (TB–DAL)
1	TB	65	punt	3	7	0–0
1	DAL	91	punt	6	19	0–0
1	TB	54	td	11	54	7–0
1	DAL	78	turnover	3	43	7–0
1	TB	46	punt	5	3	7–0
1	DAL	96	punt	3	4	7–0
2	TB	48	td	6	48	14–0
2	DAL	70	fg	3	26	14–3
2	TB	65	punt	10	9	14–3
2	DAL	88	td	11	88	14–10
2	DAL	74	punt	6	5	14–10
3	TB	73	td	10	73	21–10
3	DAL	65	td	3	65	21–17
3	TB	65	punt	4	20	21–17
3	DAL	99	td	9	99	21–24
4	TB	66	td	10	66	27–24
4	DAL	98	td	6	98	27–30
4	TB	75	fg	3	37	30–30
4	DAL	77	punt	3	5	30–30
4	TB	73	fg	4	72	33–30
4	DAL	73	td	2	73	33–37
4	TB	65	end half	14	-1	33–37

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: TB 16 – 20 DAL

By quarter: TB 3 / 7 / 6 / 0 · DAL 3 / 0 / 7 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (TB–DAL)
1	DAL	76	punt	3	18	0–0
1	TB	80	punt	3	20	0–0
1	DAL	14	fg	3	4	0–3
1	TB	65	turnover	5	42	0–3
1	DAL	77	punt	3	23	0–3
1	TB	79	fg	5	59	3–3
1	DAL	79	punt	4	12	3–3
1	TB	73	punt	3	18	3–3
1	DAL	83	punt	3	19	3–3
2	TB	82	td	6	82	10–3
2	DAL	71	punt	3	24	10–3
2	TB	85	punt	3	34	10–3
2	DAL	99	downs	9	51	10–3
2	TB	52	punt	3	4	10–3
2	DAL	85	end half	3	6	10–3
2	TB	67	fg	6	49	13–3
3	DAL	69	punt	3	5	13–3
3	TB	60	fg	3	47	16–3
3	DAL	61	td	12	61	16–10
3	TB	73	turnover	3	10	16–10
3	DAL	29	fg	6	6	16–13
4	TB	86	punt	3	47	16–13
4	DAL	99	punt	3	9	16–13
4	TB	42	punt	5	2	16–13
4	DAL	99	td	10	99	16–20
4	TB	65	end half	7	0	16–20

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-08 19:39 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-09 00:15 UTC
Seed	aa47ad84 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 52 / margin.median 5 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means DAL 28.65 / TB 23.47
Availability	injuries@2026-10-08T19:37:44Z+rosters@2026-10-08T19:37:44Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872980:c669ede7048b5282

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.