Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Default view · Official projected game · Official Forecast · frozen before tip-off · the same on every page
GameTimePicks Official Forecast
- Favoured side
- Denver Nuggets (DEN) · Elo rating
- Game winner
- Elo team rating
- Player statistics
- GameTimePicks player model · medians
- Frozen
- Oct 30, 11:50 AM ET · locked at tip-off, Oct 30, 10:00 PM ET
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DEN 53% · PHX 47% Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation.
- Projected score
- Not published. The Official Forecast does not include NBA team scores, so no projected score is shown.
- Withheld
- Team scores, margin and total, player ranges, prices · Not shown: this model's team score is a sum of player simulations that ignores the opponent, can contradict the Elo side, and has not met its historical checks.
Technical details
- Game winner model
- nba-winner-side@1:elo(nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1)
- Player model
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1@nba-preseason-experimental-v0
- Snapshot
- 2e48d60aa63ff20faa247b55d2a30074a31051736e13f81c7fd07e6e86dfac9f
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 36.7 | 22.2 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 32 | 26.6 | 27.6 |
| Nikola Jokic | 34.5 | 23.3 | 12 | 8.2 | 0.9 | 43.8 | 35.5 | 31.6 |
| Christian Braun | 30.1 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 13.1 | 11.6 | 9.7 |
| Aaron Gordon | 26.8 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 19.9 | 16.4 | 14.9 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 26 | 16.7 | 2.4 | 4 | 0.5 | 23.8 | 19.5 | 21.1 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 22.6 | 7 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 17.1 | 10.5 | 13.6 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 19.7 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 19.3 | 17.7 | 14.1 |
| Cam Whitmore | 15.9 | 8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 8.7 |
| Tyus Jones | 14 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 6.2 |
| Zeke Nnaji | 11.3 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 4.3 |
| Cameron Johnson | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Alpha Diallo | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Julian Strawther | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| DaRon Holmes II | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Bryce Hopkins | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Spencer Jones | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Trevon Brazile | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 28.7 | 17.9 | 3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 25.5 | 21.1 | 22.4 |
| Dillon Brooks | 25 | 15.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 20.1 | 18.6 | 16.7 |
| Jalen Green | 24.7 | 14.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 20 | 18.1 | 16.8 |
| Luke Kennard | 24.2 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 12.4 | 10.7 | 9.9 |
| Miles Bridges | 21.6 | 12.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 18.7 | 16.7 | 14.5 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 18.5 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0 | 11 | 8.7 | 6.8 |
| Collin Gillespie | 18 | 5.2 | 3 | 1.7 | 1 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 7 |
| Pat Spencer | 16.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 7.4 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 15.8 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 8.3 |
| Duop Reath | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Jamaree Bouyea | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Drew Timme | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Mark Williams | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Ryan Dunn | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Koa Peat | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Rasheer Fleming | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Khaman Maluach | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
Medians from the frozen player simulation; MIN is expected minutes. PRA, P+R and P+A are medians of the per-draw sums over the same simulated draws, so they are not the sum of the medians beside them. Each figure is that player's own median, published as is. Player medians are not adjusted to add up to a team score. “—” means the figure was not published for that player. Not betting recommendations.
Model vs. sportsbook line · NBA player props
74 of 133 projections have a qualified sportsbook line. Direction not shown: 11.
This game: 63 lines · ▲ 8 ▼ 54 = 1 · View lines →
- OVER means our model's projection is above the sportsbook's line.
- UNDER means our model's projection is below the sportsbook's line.
- NEUTRAL means our model's projection is the same as the sportsbook's line.
- Difference is our projection minus the line: 36.0 against 29.5 is +6.5. A gap smaller than 0.05 shows as +0.0 or −0.0 and keeps its direction.
- A line older than 6 hours, taken after the game started, not matched to the player and game, suspended, or for a statistic we do not project is shown with the reason and is not compared.
- Over and Under prices are the sportsbook's American odds. A dash means the sportsbook did not post that price; it is never a zero.
- Comparison not shown means the model and the sportsbook line are both shown without a direction, because that statistic's forecast has not yet met our calibration standard.
- It is a comparison, not a bet recommendation or a probability, and it guarantees nothing.
Sportsbook availability varies by state.
What each part of this page is
- Official Forecast — this section: frozen before tip-off. It is what GameTimePicks forecasts.
- Game Simulation — the simulated scenarios below (playback and What-if): one possible game from the NBA possession engine, hypothetical. Its score and box score are not a forecast and never change this section.
- Real Result — the official final, recorded after the game. NBA Historical Results →
Simulated scenario (hypothetical) · not the Official Forecast
Simulated scenarios: playback and What-if
One stored game of the NBA possession engine at a time, with its own box score that adds up to its own final. A scenario may differ from the Official Forecast above and never changes it.
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns · simulated
Mortgage Matchup Center · Simulated game · inputs frozen before tip · About this simulation
Official Forecast
Frozen before tip-off. It is the same for every run and every What-if Scenario; no run below changes it.
- Favoured side
- Denver Nuggets (DEN, away) · Elo rating
- Win probability
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DEN 53% · PHX 47%
- Projected score
- Withheld · Not shown: this model's team score is a sum of player simulations that ignores the opponent, can contradict the Elo side, and has not met its historical checks.
- Margin and total
- Withheld · Not shown: this model's team score is a sum of player simulations that ignores the opponent, can contradict the Elo side, and has not met its historical checks.
- Player ranges
- Withheld · Medians only: the model's ranges have not yet shown reliable coverage. · medians only
- Odds and picks
- Withheld · No sportsbook prices, lines, edges, picks or rankings: there is no authorized NBA price, and these figures are not betting recommendations.
- Game winner
- Elo team rating
- Player statistics
- GameTimePicks player model · medians
- Frozen
- Oct 30, 11:50 AM ET
- Locks at tip
- Oct 30, 10:00 PM ET
Predicted Player Statistics (Official Forecast): the Official projected game (Default view) →
Technical details
- Game winner model
- nba-winner-side@1:elo(nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1)
- Player model
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1@nba-preseason-experimental-v0
- Snapshot
- 2e48d60aa63ff20faa247b55d2a30074a31051736e13f81c7fd07e6e86dfac9f
- Frozen
- 2026-10-30 15:50 UTC
- Locks at tip
- 2026-10-31 02:00 UTC
Simulation outcome · this run
Simulated scenario (hypothetical) · central · run 919 · the stored run nearest the middle of this engine's own simulated games. It is chosen without looking at the Official Forecast, so either side may win it; it is one simulated game, not the Official Forecast, and changes none of its numbers
Chosen by rule, not by hand: the stored run nearest the middle of this engine's own simulated games: of the runs that ended in regulation, the final closest to the pool's median home and median away points (in pool standard deviations); ties → lowest run number. The Official Forecast is not consulted, so either side may win it.
In this engine's 1,000 simulated games, PHX won 39.4% and DEN 60.6% (the engine's own share, not the Official Forecast).
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 0 | — | — | — | 0 |
| PHX | 0 | — | — | — | 0 |
The outcome fills in as the game plays; skip to the final at any time.
DEN · on court
- Nikola Jokic
- Jamal Murray
- Aaron Gordon
- Christian Braun
- DeMar DeRozan
PHX · on court
- Jamaree Bouyea
- Miles Bridges
- Dillon Brooks
- Devin Booker
- Luke Kennard
Decorative court · player positions and shot locations are not modelled
Keys: Space or K play / pause · , and . previous / next play · [ and ] previous / next quarter · Home restart · End final
Play-by-play · simulated
- Q1 12:00Jump ball · DEN win the tip · simulatedDEN 0–0 PHX
- Q1 12:00Start of the 1st quarter · simulatedDEN 0–0 PHX
Team scoring progression
This simulation's box score · player contributions and box score of this run
One simulated game, added up from its own event log. It is not the Official Forecast; the Predicted Player Statistics (Official Forecast) are in the Official Forecast section and never change.
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | 3PA | FGM | FGA | FTM | FTA | STL | BLK | TOV | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nikola Jokic | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Braun | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Gordon | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Brazile | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Hopkins | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Whitmore | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyus Jones | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zeke Nnaji | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaRon Holmes II | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team rebounds (not credited to a player): 0. REB = offensive + defensive player rebounds.
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | 3PA | FGM | FGA | FTM | FTA | STL | BLK | TOV | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dillon Brooks | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Bridges | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Collin Gillespie | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Green | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Kennard | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pat Spencer | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Dunn | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasheer Fleming | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khaman Maluach | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamaree Bouyea | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Timme | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duop Reath | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Koa Peat | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team rebounds (not credited to a player): 0. REB = offensive + defensive player rebounds.
Reconciliation
Every check passes for this run:
- ✓ home: player points = team points = final = quarter sum · 107 / 107 / 107 / 107
- ✓ home: makes ≤ attempts, 3PT and FT reconcile (PTS = 2·FGM + 3PM + FTM)
- ✓ home: minutes sum to 240 · 240.00 min
- ✓ home: no impossible values (non-negative integers, REB = OREB + DREB, AST ≤ FGM, STL ≤ opp. TOV, BLK ≤ opp. missed FGA)
- ✓ away: player points = team points = final = quarter sum · 122 / 122 / 122 / 122
- ✓ away: makes ≤ attempts, 3PT and FT reconcile (PTS = 2·FGM + 3PM + FTM)
- ✓ away: minutes sum to 240 · 240.00 min
- ✓ away: no impossible values (non-negative integers, REB = OREB + DREB, AST ≤ FGM, STL ≤ opp. TOV, BLK ≤ opp. missed FGA)
- ✓ untied final; overtime only after a tie · 107–122, OT 0
This simulation vs the Predicted Player Statistics (Official Forecast)
| Player | MIN run / official | PTS run / official | REB run / official | AST run / official | 3PM run / official |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Gordon DEN | 28.6 / 26.8 | 10 / 11.4 | 7 / 4.9 | 4 / 3.3 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Nikola Jokic DEN | 34.6 / 34.5 | 20 / 23.3 | 15 / 12.0 | 5 / 8.2 | 0 / 0.9 |
| Tyus Jones DEN | 7.8 / 14.0 | 0 / 3.9 | 0 / 1.4 | 1 / 2.0 | 0 / 0.6 |
| Devin Booker PHX | 26.4 / 28.7 | 12 / 17.9 | 4 / 3.0 | 0 / 4.4 | 0 / 0.8 |
| Dillon Brooks PHX | 24.3 / 25.0 | 16 / 15.2 | 4 / 3.4 | 0 / 1.4 | 1 / 1.9 |
| Luke Kennard PHX | 23.3 / 24.2 | 10 / 8.2 | 4 / 2.5 | 4 / 1.6 | 2 / 1.3 |
| Jamal Murray DEN | 31.2 / 36.7 | 20 / 22.2 | 3 / 4.5 | 5 / 5.4 | 2 / 2.2 |
| DeMar DeRozan DEN | 25.8 / 26.0 | 17 / 16.7 | 6 / 2.4 | 3 / 4.0 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Miles Bridges PHX | 27.4 / 21.6 | 11 / 12.6 | 5 / 4.1 | 1 / 1.9 | 0 / 1.4 |
| Marvin Bagley III DEN | 16.7 / 19.7 | 14 / 12.5 | 4 / 5.1 | 4 / 1.4 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Jordan Goodwin PHX | 19.0 / 15.8 | 15 / 7.5 | 5 / 2.6 | 2 / 0.6 | 3 / 1.6 |
| Collin Gillespie PHX | 12.1 / 18.0 | 5 / 5.2 | 4 / 3.0 | 3 / 1.7 | 1 / 1.0 |
| Zeke Nnaji DEN | 0.0 / 11.3 | 0 / 3.1 | 0 / 1.6 | 0 / 0.9 | 0 / 0.3 |
| Christian Braun DEN | 27.6 / 30.1 | 10 / 8.2 | 4 / 3.3 | 3 / 1.4 | 2 / 0.7 |
| Ryan Nembhard DEN | 22.0 / 22.6 | 6 / 7.0 | 1 / 3.2 | 5 / 6.2 | 2 / 0.5 |
| Jalen Green PHX | 17.1 / 24.7 | 14 / 14.9 | 4 / 3.1 | 2 / 1.7 | 2 / 1.4 |
| Pat Spencer PHX | 15.5 / 16.8 | 3 / 4.2 | 1 / 1.7 | 1 / 2.5 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Oso Ighodaro PHX | 17.6 / 18.5 | 4 / 4.5 | 3 / 3.9 | 5 / 2.1 | 0 / 0.0 |
| Cam Whitmore DEN | 15.5 / 15.9 | 11 / 8.0 | 1 / 2.3 | 1 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.6 |
Official medians are the forecast's middle outcome over many simulated games and can be fractional; this run is one game, so its numbers are whole. Neither is rounded into the other.
About this simulation
Game Simulation engine: NBA possession engine (nba-possession-sim-v0) — not the Official Forecast, not the NBA v1 Challenger (evaluation only)
- This Game Simulation is generated by the NBA possession engine (nba-possession-sim-v0) from the same frozen inputs as the Official Forecast.
- It is not the Official Forecast.
- Each run is a hypothetical game — one possible outcome, not a prediction and not a guarantee.
- A different simulated score does not change the Official Forecast.
Technically verified
Every run on this page passed the engine's consistency checks when it was generated and again when this page was built: game clock, possessions, five players on court per side, scoring, minutes, fouls, and an event log that adds up exactly to the box score. The run you are watching is also re-added from its own event log in your browser (Reconciliation, above).
- Checks
- P1–P11 (clock, possession, five on court, scoring, minutes, fouls, log = box score)
- Seed pool
- 1,000 seeded runs, 1,000 checked, 0 invariant violations
Model Performance — not yet measured
The engine has not been measured against actual NBA results: it has no preregistered evaluation, and it has not been shown to be more accurate than the Official Forecast or the NBA v1 Challenger (evaluation only). Its runs are independent draws (not reconciled to v1's draws). Each run is a possible game, not a prediction and not a guarantee, and nothing it shows changes an official number.
What is modelled: every play, score change, clock reading, possession arrow and lineup on this page comes from one stored event log of the engine, and the box score is that log added up. The court graphic is decorative: player positions, ball movement and shot locations are not modelled.
- Inputs as of
- 2026-10-30 15:50 UTC (the Official Forecast's freeze for this game: the simulation has no later information than the Official Forecast had)
How the runs on this page were chosen
- pool
- runIndex 0 … poolSize − 1 of the engine's fixed seed policy (seed = hash(providerEventId); draw i uses mulberry32(fnv1a32(seed + ':' + i)))
- distance
- official-representative@2 distance to the official v0.1 player expectations (team terms withheld for NBA)
- default
- smallest distance among runs won by the official Elo favoured side; ties → lowest runIndex
- upset
- smallest distance among runs won by the side the official forecast does not favour; ties → lowest runIndex
- high
- total closest to the pool's p90 total (nearest rank); ties → smaller distance → lowest runIndex
- low
- total closest to the pool's p10 total (nearest rank); ties → smaller distance → lowest runIndex
- overtime
- smallest distance among overtime runs; ties → lowest runIndex (only when the pool has one)
- order
- default, upset, high, low, overtime — each pick excludes the runs already picked
Not modelled
- Shot locations, player movement and ball movement (the court graphic is decorative)
- Timeouts and coach's challenges
- Offensive fouls (booked as turnovers; every personal foul is on the defence)
- Bonus / penalty situations (folded into the fitted free-throw trip rate)
- Late-game strategy beyond intentional fouling (overtime is rarer than in real games)
- Technical fouls (folded into odd free-throw trips)
- Fatigue and blowout rest