Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards
Default view · Official projected game · Official Forecast · frozen before tip-off · the same on every page
GameTimePicks Official Forecast
- Favoured side
- Charlotte Hornets (CHA) · Elo rating
- Game winner
- Elo team rating
- Player statistics
- GameTimePicks player model · medians
- Frozen
- Oct 30, 11:18 AM ET · locked at tip-off, Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHA 73% · WSH 27% Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation.
- Projected score
- Not published. The Official Forecast does not include NBA team scores, so no projected score is shown.
- Withheld
- Team scores, margin and total, player ranges, prices · Not shown: this model's team score is a sum of player simulations that ignores the opponent, can contradict the Elo side, and has not met its historical checks.
Technical details
- Game winner model
- nba-winner-side@1:elo(nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1)
- Player model
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1@nba-preseason-experimental-v0
- Snapshot
- 3567789b74cee8c0f7f6d929155d51322ab47858c21436efc7a807e65f9e74dc
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Miller | 33.9 | 19.4 | 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 26.4 | 23.4 | 22.4 |
| Naz Reid | 30.3 | 14.3 | 8 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 24.8 | 22.4 | 16.6 |
| Moussa Diabate | 28.6 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 2.2 | 0 | 17.5 | 15.2 | 8.1 |
| Royce O'Neale | 25 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 16.6 | 14.5 | 11 |
| Sion James | 21.6 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 12.8 | 10.2 | 8.4 |
| Grayson Allen | 20.8 | 9.1 | 3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 11 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 20 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 1 | 0 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 6.5 |
| Dennis Schroder | 18.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 7.8 |
| PJ Hall | 16.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 6.8 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 16.6 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 6.5 |
| Grant Williams | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Coby White | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Kylan Boswell | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Christian Anderson | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Kon Knueppel | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Liam McNeeley | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Hannes Steinbach | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Riley | 25.9 | 14.4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 20.3 | 17.7 | 16.9 |
| Anthony Davis | 24.8 | 15.4 | 8.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 26.3 | 24.1 | 17.6 |
| Anthony Gill | 24.6 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 11.1 |
| Kyshawn George | 23 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 18.7 | 15.3 | 14.7 |
| Deandre Ayton | 22.6 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 0 | 16 | 15.2 | 8.4 |
| Bub Carrington | 22.1 | 11.1 | 1.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 16.9 | 12.6 | 15.4 |
| Alex Sarr | 21.6 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 20.5 | 18.3 | 14.8 |
| Khris Middleton | 19.3 | 8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 13.6 | 11.1 | 10.5 |
| Tre Johnson | 18.6 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10.9 | 10.1 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 17.6 | 12.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 17 | 15.3 | 13.8 |
| Trae Young | 16.3 | 12 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 19.3 | 14.4 | 16.9 |
| Reece Beekman | Projection unavailable — not enough recent NBA minutes to project (for example, a returning player) | |||||||
| Tre Mann | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Justin Champagnie | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Jamir Watkins | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Tristan Vukcevic | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Felix Okpara | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| AJ Dybantsa | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
Medians from the frozen player simulation; MIN is expected minutes. PRA, P+R and P+A are medians of the per-draw sums over the same simulated draws, so they are not the sum of the medians beside them. Each figure is that player's own median, published as is. Player medians are not adjusted to add up to a team score. “—” means the figure was not published for that player. Not betting recommendations.
Model vs. sportsbook line · NBA player props
82 of 147 projections have a qualified sportsbook line. Direction not shown: 10.
This game: 72 lines · ▲ 21 ▼ 50 = 1 · View lines →
- OVER means our model's projection is above the sportsbook's line.
- UNDER means our model's projection is below the sportsbook's line.
- NEUTRAL means our model's projection is the same as the sportsbook's line.
- Difference is our projection minus the line: 36.0 against 29.5 is +6.5. A gap smaller than 0.05 shows as +0.0 or −0.0 and keeps its direction.
- A line older than 6 hours, taken after the game started, not matched to the player and game, suspended, or for a statistic we do not project is shown with the reason and is not compared.
- Over and Under prices are the sportsbook's American odds. A dash means the sportsbook did not post that price; it is never a zero.
- Comparison not shown means the model and the sportsbook line are both shown without a direction, because that statistic's forecast has not yet met our calibration standard.
- It is a comparison, not a bet recommendation or a probability, and it guarantees nothing.
Sportsbook availability varies by state.
What each part of this page is
- Official Forecast — this section: frozen before tip-off. It is what GameTimePicks forecasts.
- Game Simulation — the simulated scenarios below (playback and What-if): one possible game from the NBA possession engine, hypothetical. Its score and box score are not a forecast and never change this section.
- Real Result — the official final, recorded after the game. NBA Historical Results →
Simulated scenario (hypothetical) · not the Official Forecast
Simulated scenarios: playback and What-if
One stored game of the NBA possession engine at a time, with its own box score that adds up to its own final. A scenario may differ from the Official Forecast above and never changes it.
Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards · simulated
Capital One Arena · Simulated game · inputs frozen before tip · About this simulation
Official Forecast
Frozen before tip-off. It is the same for every run and every What-if Scenario; no run below changes it.
- Favoured side
- Charlotte Hornets (CHA, away) · Elo rating
- Win probability
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CHA 73% · WSH 27%
- Projected score
- Withheld · Not shown: this model's team score is a sum of player simulations that ignores the opponent, can contradict the Elo side, and has not met its historical checks.
- Margin and total
- Withheld · Not shown: this model's team score is a sum of player simulations that ignores the opponent, can contradict the Elo side, and has not met its historical checks.
- Player ranges
- Withheld · Medians only: the model's ranges have not yet shown reliable coverage. · medians only
- Odds and picks
- Withheld · No sportsbook prices, lines, edges, picks or rankings: there is no authorized NBA price, and these figures are not betting recommendations.
- Game winner
- Elo team rating
- Player statistics
- GameTimePicks player model · medians
- Frozen
- Oct 30, 11:18 AM ET
- Locks at tip
- Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET
Predicted Player Statistics (Official Forecast): the Official projected game (Default view) →
Technical details
- Game winner model
- nba-winner-side@1:elo(nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1)
- Player model
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1@nba-preseason-experimental-v0
- Snapshot
- 3567789b74cee8c0f7f6d929155d51322ab47858c21436efc7a807e65f9e74dc
- Frozen
- 2026-10-30 15:18 UTC
- Locks at tip
- 2026-10-30 23:00 UTC
Simulation outcome · this run
Simulated scenario (hypothetical) · central · run 679 · the stored run nearest the middle of this engine's own simulated games. It is chosen without looking at the Official Forecast, so either side may win it; it is one simulated game, not the Official Forecast, and changes none of its numbers
Chosen by rule, not by hand: the stored run nearest the middle of this engine's own simulated games: of the runs that ended in regulation, the final closest to the pool's median home and median away points (in pool standard deviations); ties → lowest run number. The Official Forecast is not consulted, so either side may win it.
In this engine's 1,000 simulated games, WSH won 34.5% and CHA 65.5% (the engine's own share, not the Official Forecast).
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | 0 | — | — | — | 0 |
| WSH | 0 | — | — | — | 0 |
The outcome fills in as the game plays; skip to the final at any time.
CHA · on court
- Moussa Diabate
- Brandon Miller
- Grayson Allen
- Royce O'Neale
- Naz Reid
WSH · on court
- Will Riley
- Bilal Coulibaly
- Bub Carrington
- Anthony Davis
- Alex Sarr
Decorative court · player positions and shot locations are not modelled
Keys: Space or K play / pause · , and . previous / next play · [ and ] previous / next quarter · Home restart · End final
Play-by-play · simulated
- Q1 12:00Jump ball · WSH win the tip · simulatedCHA 0–0 WSH
- Q1 12:00Start of the 1st quarter · simulatedCHA 0–0 WSH
Team scoring progression
This simulation's box score · player contributions and box score of this run
One simulated game, added up from its own event log. It is not the Official Forecast; the Predicted Player Statistics (Official Forecast) are in the Official Forecast section and never change.
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | 3PA | FGM | FGA | FTM | FTA | STL | BLK | TOV | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Miller | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moussa Diabate | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grayson Allen | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naz Reid | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Schroder | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Royce O'Neale | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sion James | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Anderson | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PJ Hall | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam McNeeley | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hannes Steinbach | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team rebounds (not credited to a player): 0. REB = offensive + defensive player rebounds.
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | 3PA | FGM | FGA | FTM | FTA | STL | BLK | TOV | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trae Young | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyshawn George | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bub Carrington | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Sarr | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Riley | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deandre Ayton | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Johnson | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Gill | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khris Middleton | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Mann | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reece Beekman | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Felix Okpara | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team rebounds (not credited to a player): 0. REB = offensive + defensive player rebounds.
Reconciliation
Every check passes for this run:
- ✓ home: player points = team points = final = quarter sum · 117 / 117 / 117 / 117
- ✓ home: makes ≤ attempts, 3PT and FT reconcile (PTS = 2·FGM + 3PM + FTM)
- ✓ home: minutes sum to 240 · 240.00 min
- ✓ home: no impossible values (non-negative integers, REB = OREB + DREB, AST ≤ FGM, STL ≤ opp. TOV, BLK ≤ opp. missed FGA)
- ✓ away: player points = team points = final = quarter sum · 122 / 122 / 122 / 122
- ✓ away: makes ≤ attempts, 3PT and FT reconcile (PTS = 2·FGM + 3PM + FTM)
- ✓ away: minutes sum to 240 · 240.00 min
- ✓ away: no impossible values (non-negative integers, REB = OREB + DREB, AST ≤ FGM, STL ≤ opp. TOV, BLK ≤ opp. missed FGA)
- ✓ untied final; overtime only after a tie · 117–122, OT 0
This simulation vs the Predicted Player Statistics (Official Forecast)
| Player | MIN run / official | PTS run / official | REB run / official | AST run / official | 3PM run / official |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Gill WSH | 20.3 / 24.6 | 4 / 9.5 | 8 / 2.9 | 3 / 1.5 | 0 / 0.6 |
| Royce O'Neale CHA | 28.3 / 25.0 | 6 / 8.9 | 3 / 5.5 | 1 / 1.9 | 2 / 2.2 |
| Dennis Schroder CHA | 11.7 / 18.8 | 14 / 4.5 | 0 / 1.8 | 4 / 3.2 | 2 / 0.7 |
| Grayson Allen CHA | 28.3 / 20.8 | 22 / 9.1 | 4 / 3.0 | 2 / 1.8 | 3 / 1.3 |
| Trae Young WSH | 20.5 / 16.3 | 15 / 12.0 | 1 / 2.4 | 5 / 4.9 | 0 / 1.4 |
| Deandre Ayton WSH | 17.9 / 22.6 | 10 / 7.7 | 6 / 7.5 | 0 / 0.7 | 0 / 0.0 |
| Naz Reid CHA | 21.2 / 30.3 | 10 / 14.3 | 2 / 8.0 | 1 / 2.3 | 2 / 2.1 |
| Moussa Diabate CHA | 31.1 / 28.6 | 4 / 5.8 | 11 / 9.3 | 3 / 2.2 | 0 / 0.0 |
| Brandon Miller CHA | 29.7 / 33.9 | 23 / 19.4 | 0 / 4.0 | 1 / 2.9 | 3 / 3.3 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA | 16.2 / 20.0 | 4 / 5.4 | 1 / 4.7 | 2 / 1.0 | 0 / 0.0 |
| Sion James CHA | 19.1 / 21.6 | 13 / 5.9 | 4 / 4.3 | 1 / 2.5 | 1 / 1.2 |
| PJ Hall CHA | 15.7 / 16.9 | 15 / 6.1 | 5 / 5.7 | 0 / 0.7 | 0 / 0.2 |
| Bub Carrington WSH | 24.7 / 22.1 | 11 / 11.1 | 3 / 1.4 | 6 / 4.3 | 1 / 2.2 |
| Bilal Coulibaly WSH | 23.6 / 17.6 | 11 / 12.1 | 4 / 3.1 | 3 / 1.6 | 3 / 1.1 |
| Will Riley WSH | 39.2 / 25.9 | 21 / 14.4 | 1 / 3.3 | 4 / 2.6 | 2 / 1.2 |
| Alex Sarr WSH | 19.4 / 21.6 | 9 / 12.6 | 5 / 5.7 | 2 / 2.1 | 0 / 0.8 |
| Kyshawn George WSH | 4.7 / 23.0 | 2 / 11.1 | 2 / 3.9 | 2 / 3.5 | 0 / 1.6 |
| Tidjane Salaun CHA | 13.1 / 16.6 | 4 / 5.6 | 3 / 3.8 | 3 / 0.7 | 0 / 0.9 |
| Tre Johnson WSH | 19.9 / 18.6 | 9 / 8.1 | 1 / 2.8 | 1 / 2.0 | 1 / 1.0 |
| Anthony Davis WSH | 23.5 / 24.8 | 10 / 15.4 | 4 / 8.5 | 4 / 2.1 | 0 / 0.4 |
| Khris Middleton WSH | 14.0 / 19.3 | 5 / 8.0 | 0 / 3.1 | 3 / 2.5 | 1 / 0.7 |
Official medians are the forecast's middle outcome over many simulated games and can be fractional; this run is one game, so its numbers are whole. Neither is rounded into the other.
About this simulation
Game Simulation engine: NBA possession engine (nba-possession-sim-v0) — not the Official Forecast, not the NBA v1 Challenger (evaluation only)
- This Game Simulation is generated by the NBA possession engine (nba-possession-sim-v0) from the same frozen inputs as the Official Forecast.
- It is not the Official Forecast.
- Each run is a hypothetical game — one possible outcome, not a prediction and not a guarantee.
- A different simulated score does not change the Official Forecast.
Technically verified
Every run on this page passed the engine's consistency checks when it was generated and again when this page was built: game clock, possessions, five players on court per side, scoring, minutes, fouls, and an event log that adds up exactly to the box score. The run you are watching is also re-added from its own event log in your browser (Reconciliation, above).
- Checks
- P1–P11 (clock, possession, five on court, scoring, minutes, fouls, log = box score)
- Seed pool
- 1,000 seeded runs, 1,000 checked, 0 invariant violations
Model Performance — not yet measured
The engine has not been measured against actual NBA results: it has no preregistered evaluation, and it has not been shown to be more accurate than the Official Forecast or the NBA v1 Challenger (evaluation only). Its runs are independent draws (not reconciled to v1's draws). Each run is a possible game, not a prediction and not a guarantee, and nothing it shows changes an official number.
What is modelled: every play, score change, clock reading, possession arrow and lineup on this page comes from one stored event log of the engine, and the box score is that log added up. The court graphic is decorative: player positions, ball movement and shot locations are not modelled.
- Inputs as of
- 2026-10-30 15:18 UTC (the Official Forecast's freeze for this game: the simulation has no later information than the Official Forecast had)
How the runs on this page were chosen
- pool
- runIndex 0 … poolSize − 1 of the engine's fixed seed policy (seed = hash(providerEventId); draw i uses mulberry32(fnv1a32(seed + ':' + i)))
- distance
- official-representative@2 distance to the official v0.1 player expectations (team terms withheld for NBA)
- default
- smallest distance among runs won by the official Elo favoured side; ties → lowest runIndex
- upset
- smallest distance among runs won by the side the official forecast does not favour; ties → lowest runIndex
- high
- total closest to the pool's p90 total (nearest rank); ties → smaller distance → lowest runIndex
- low
- total closest to the pool's p10 total (nearest rank); ties → smaller distance → lowest runIndex
- overtime
- smallest distance among overtime runs; ties → lowest runIndex (only when the pool has one)
- order
- default, upset, high, low, overtime — each pick excludes the runs already picked
Not modelled
- Shot locations, player movement and ball movement (the court graphic is decorative)
- Timeouts and coach's challenges
- Offensive fouls (booked as turnovers; every personal foul is on the defence)
- Bonus / penalty situations (folded into the fitted free-throw trip rate)
- Late-game strategy beyond intentional fouling (overtime is rarer than in real games)
- Technical fouls (folded into odd free-throw trips)
- Fatigue and blowout rest