NFL · Winning margin
111 forecasts published · 106 measured · 5 not final · 0 void or not measurable. Models: nfl-preseason-public-beta-v1, nfl-regular-season-public-v1.
10.9average miss (n 106)
8.5median miss
14.1root-mean-square miss
+0.7bias (+ = we projected high)
75.5%inside our 80% range (n 106) — about 80% is the target, higher is not better
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 111. Download all 111 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | DET @ CAR | -4 (range -20–13) published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Actual 6 | missed by 10 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | DEN @ SF | 1 (range -15–18) published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Actual 10 | missed by 9 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | LAC @ SEA | 8 (range -8–24) published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Actual 7 | missed by 1 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | KC @ LV | -3 (range -19–14) published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Actual -3 | missed by 0 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 MIA @ MIN | MIA @ MIN | 8 (range -8–25) published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Actual 5 | missed by 3 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 JAX @ CIN | JAX @ CIN | -1 (range -18–17) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | — | Actual -5 | missed by 4 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 DAL @ HOU | DAL @ HOU | 5 (range -12–21) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | — | Actual -4 | missed by 9 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 ARI @ NYG | ARI @ NYG | 3 (range -14–20) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | — | Actual 12 | missed by 9 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 NYJ @ CHI | NYJ @ CHI | 8 (range -9–25) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | — | Actual 11 | missed by 3 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 LAR @ PHI | LAR @ PHI | 3 (range -13–20) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | — | Actual -4 | missed by 7 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 NE @ BUF | NE @ BUF | 6 (range -11–22) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | — | Actual -3 | missed by 9 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 TEN @ BAL | TEN @ BAL | 11 (range -6–27) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | — | Actual 6 | missed by 5 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 GB @ TB | GB @ TB | 0 (range -17–17) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | — | Actual -3 | missed by 3 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 IND @ WSH | IND @ WSH | 0 (range -17–16) published 2026-10-03 23:32Z | — | Actual -17 | missed by 17 · inside range |
| 2026-10-02 PIT @ CLE | PIT @ CLE | -2 (range -18–15) published 2026-10-01 22:30Z | — | Actual 3 | missed by 5 · inside range |
| 2026-09-29 PHI @ CHI | PHI @ CHI | -1 (range -19–17) published 2026-09-28 22:24Z | — | Actual 20 | missed by 21 · outside range |
| 2026-09-28 LAR @ DEN | LAR @ DEN | 3 (range -14–19) published 2026-09-28 00:17Z | — | Actual 4 | missed by 1 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 LV @ NO | LV @ NO | 3 (range -13–20) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | — | Actual -8 | missed by 11 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 BAL @ DAL | BAL @ DAL | -2 (range -19–15) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | — | Actual -3 | missed by 1 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 ARI @ SF | ARI @ SF | 10 (range -7–26) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | — | Actual 6 | missed by 4 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 MIN @ TB | MIN @ TB | -3 (range -19–14) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | — | Actual -7 | missed by 4 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 NYJ @ DET | NYJ @ DET | 9 (range -7–26) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | — | Actual 7 | missed by 2 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 LAC @ BUF | LAC @ BUF | 8 (range -9–24) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | — | Actual 8 | missed by 0 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 HOU @ IND | HOU @ IND | -2 (range -18–15) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | — | Actual 2 | missed by 4 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 NE @ JAX | NE @ JAX | 1 (range -16–18) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | — | Actual 29 | missed by 28 · outside range |
| 2026-09-27 CAR @ CLE | CAR @ CLE | 2 (range -15–18) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | — | Actual 3 | missed by 1 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 KC @ MIA | KC @ MIA | -2 (range -19–15) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | — | Actual -14 | missed by 12 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 TEN @ NYG | TEN @ NYG | 4 (range -12–21) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | — | Actual 5 | missed by 1 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 CIN @ PIT | CIN @ PIT | 3 (range -14–20) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | — | Actual 3 | missed by 0 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 SEA @ WSH | SEA @ WSH | -6 (range -23–10) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | — | Actual 2 | missed by 8 · inside range |
| 2026-09-25 ATL @ GB | ATL @ GB | 5 (range -11–22) published 2026-09-24 23:46Z | — | Actual -21 | missed by 26 · outside range |
| 2026-09-22 NYG @ LAR | NYG @ LAR | 9 (range -8–25) published 2026-09-21 23:50Z | — | Actual 22 | missed by 13 · inside range |
| 2026-09-21 IND @ KC | IND @ KC | 5 (range -11–22) published 2026-09-20 23:00Z | — | Actual 3 | missed by 2 · inside range |
| 2026-09-20 WSH @ DAL | WSH @ DAL | 3 (range -14–20) published 2026-09-20 18:09Z | — | Actual 17 | missed by 14 · inside range |
| 2026-09-20 SEA @ ARI | SEA @ ARI | -7 (range -24–10) published 2026-09-20 18:09Z | — | Actual -24 | missed by 17 · inside range |
| 2026-09-20 MIA @ SF | MIA @ SF | 6 (range -10–23) published 2026-09-20 18:09Z | — | Actual 22 | missed by 16 · inside range |
| 2026-09-20 JAX @ DEN | JAX @ DEN | 4 (range -13–20) published 2026-09-20 18:09Z | — | Actual 7 | missed by 3 · inside range |
| 2026-09-20 LV @ LAC | LV @ LAC | 7 (range -9–23) published 2026-09-20 18:09Z | — | Actual -12 | missed by 19 · outside range |
| 2026-09-20 CIN @ HOU | CIN @ HOU | 5 (range -12–21) published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | — | Actual -14 | missed by 19 · outside range |
| 2026-09-20 CLE @ TB | CLE @ TB | 5 (range -12–21) published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | — | Actual -4 | missed by 9 · inside range |
| 2026-09-20 PIT @ NE | PIT @ NE | 3 (range -14–19) published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | — | Actual 17 | missed by 14 · inside range |
| 2026-09-20 MIN @ CHI | MIN @ CHI | 1 (range -15–17) published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | — | Actual -6 | missed by 7 · inside range |
| 2026-09-20 CAR @ ATL | CAR @ ATL | 4 (range -13–21) published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | — | Actual -31 | missed by 35 · outside range |
| 2026-09-20 NO @ BAL | NO @ BAL | 7 (range -9–24) published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | — | Actual -7 | missed by 14 · inside range |
| 2026-09-20 PHI @ TEN | PHI @ TEN | -8 (range -25–9) published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | — | Actual -4 | missed by 4 · inside range |
| 2026-09-20 GB @ NYJ | GB @ NYJ | -2 (range -19–14) published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | — | Actual -3 | missed by 1 · inside range |
| 2026-09-18 DET @ BUF | DET @ BUF | 4 (range -13–20) published 2026-09-17 23:22Z | — | Actual 10 | missed by 6 · inside range |
| 2026-09-15 DEN @ KC | DEN @ KC | -1 (range -17–16) published 2026-09-14 23:42Z | — | Actual 21 | missed by 22 · outside range |
| 2026-09-14 DAL @ NYG | DAL @ NYG | -1 (range -18–17) published 2026-09-13 22:54Z | — | Actual 8 | missed by 9 · inside range |
| 2026-09-13 WSH @ PHI | WSH @ PHI | 9 (range -8–26) published 2026-09-13 18:02Z | — | Actual 2 | missed by 7 · inside range |
| 2026-09-13 MIA @ LV | MIA @ LV | -1 (range -18–16) published 2026-09-13 18:02Z | — | Actual 14 | missed by 15 · inside range |
| 2026-09-13 ARI @ LAC | ARI @ LAC | 10 (range -7–27) published 2026-09-13 18:02Z | — | Actual -12 | missed by 22 · outside range |
| 2026-09-13 GB @ MIN | GB @ MIN | 5 (range -13–22) published 2026-09-13 18:02Z | — | Actual 17 | missed by 12 · inside range |
| 2026-09-13 NYJ @ TEN | NYJ @ TEN | 2 (range -15–20) published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | — | Actual -13 | missed by 15 · inside range |
| 2026-09-13 TB @ CIN | TB @ CIN | 2 (range -15–20) published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | — | Actual 6 | missed by 4 · inside range |
| 2026-09-13 CLE @ JAX | CLE @ JAX | 8 (range -9–26) published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | — | Actual 24 | missed by 16 · inside range |
| 2026-09-13 NO @ DET | NO @ DET | 9 (range -8–27) published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | — | Actual 1 | missed by 8 · inside range |
| 2026-09-13 ATL @ PIT | ATL @ PIT | 6 (range -12–23) published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | — | Actual 7 | missed by 1 · inside range |
| 2026-09-13 BUF @ HOU | BUF @ HOU | 2 (range -15–20) published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | — | Actual -5 | missed by 7 · inside range |
| 2026-09-13 BAL @ IND | BAL @ IND | 1 (range -17–18) published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | — | Actual -18 | missed by 19 · outside range |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.