MLB · Home run (Homer Nukes)
230 forecasts published · 196 measured · 2 not final · 32 void or not measurable. Model: mlb-homer-nukes-v1.
0.150Brier score (n 196), lower is better
0.479log loss, lower is better
23.9% → 17.3%average forecast → how often it happened
0.069calibration error (ECE)
Calibration
When we said a chance in each band, how often did it happen? A well-calibrated forecast lands close to its own number. Small bands are noisy.
| We said | Forecasts | Average forecast | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 20 | 18.0% | 20.0% |
| 20–30% | 173 | 24.4% | 17.3% |
| 30–40% | 3 | 30.7% | 0.0% |
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 230. Download all 230 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — MIN @ DET | Kerry Carpenter · DET | 21.9% publication time not recorded | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| — NYY @ TB | Ryan Vilade · TB | 17.5% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.031 |
| — NYY @ MIN | Ben Rice · NYY | 23.1% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.053 |
| — HOU @ NYY | Yordan Alvarez · HOU | 23.2% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.054 |
| — BAL @ COL | Pete Alonso · BAL | 25.4% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.065 |
| — TB @ PHI | Kyle Schwarber · PHI | 22.3% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.050 |
| — TOR @ BAL | Coby Mayo · BAL | 22.4% publication time not recorded | — | Not final yet | — |
| — NYY @ MIN | Aaron Judge · NYY | 25.1% publication time not recorded | — | Happened | Brier 0.561 |
| — COL @ WSH | Mickey Moniak · COL | 21.3% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.046 |
| — CWS @ HOU | Munetaka Murakami · CWS | 21.8% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.047 |
| — CWS @ HOU | Colson Montgomery · CWS | 23.7% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.056 |
| — ATL @ CHC | Matt Olson · ATL | 28.8% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.083 |
| — PHI @ LAA | Bryce Harper · PHI | 22.7% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.051 |
| — BOS @ NYY | Ben Rice · NYY | 18.6% publication time not recorded | — | Happened | Brier 0.663 |
| — ATH @ SEA | Luke Raley · SEA | 26.6% publication time not recorded | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| — DET @ CWS | Munetaka Murakami · CWS | 22.6% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.051 |
| — PHI @ ATL | Kyle Schwarber · PHI | 23.8% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.056 |
| — ATL @ PHI | Kyle Schwarber · PHI | 23.3% publication time not recorded | — | Happened | Brier 0.589 |
| — TOR @ BAL | Pete Alonso · BAL | 18.0% publication time not recorded | — | Happened | Brier 0.672 |
| — HOU @ NYY | Yordan Alvarez · HOU | 21.1% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.044 |
| — CWS @ CHC | Munetaka Murakami · CWS | 30.6% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.094 |
| — SEA @ COL | Hunter Goodman · COL | 23.9% publication time not recorded | — | Happened | Brier 0.579 |
| — PHI @ ATL | Matt Olson · ATL | 23.5% publication time not recorded | — | Happened | Brier 0.585 |
| — TB @ PHI | Kyle Schwarber · PHI | 23.2% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.054 |
| — TB @ NYY | Luis García Jr. · NYY | 24.9% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.062 |
| — COL @ CWS | Hunter Goodman · COL | 23.4% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.055 |
| — HOU @ ATH | Yordan Alvarez · HOU | 23.8% publication time not recorded | — | Happened | Brier 0.581 |
| — ATL @ HOU | Yordan Alvarez · HOU | 22.0% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.048 |
| — CHC @ MIA | Griffin Conine · MIA | 25.9% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.067 |
| — MIA @ PHI | Heriberto Hernández · MIA | 24.7% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.061 |
| — COL @ WSH | Hunter Goodman · COL | 26.3% publication time not recorded | — | Happened | Brier 0.543 |
| — CHC @ AZ | Pete Crow-Armstrong · CHC | 25.2% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.063 |
| — CWS @ STL | Munetaka Murakami · CWS | 25.3% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.064 |
| — MIN @ SF | Willy Adames · SF | 19.2% publication time not recorded | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| — ATH @ TB | Victor Mesa Jr. · TB | 25.9% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.067 |
| — CHC @ MIL | Pete Crow-Armstrong · CHC | 22.1% publication time not recorded | — | Happened | Brier 0.606 |
| — SEA @ LAA | Luke Raley · SEA | 22.3% publication time not recorded | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| — STL @ SF | Rafael Devers · SF | 20.5% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.042 |
| — KC @ TOR | Jac Caglianone · KC | 22.3% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.050 |
| — ATL @ WSH | Matt Olson · ATL | 23.6% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.056 |
| — SD @ MIL | Jackson Merrill · SD | 16.6% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.027 |
| — MIN @ DET | Byron Buxton · MIN | 19.5% publication time not recorded | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| — COL @ WSH | Hunter Goodman · COL | 27.0% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.073 |
| — COL @ ATL | Matt Olson · ATL | 25.9% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.067 |
| — PIT @ CHC | Esmerlyn Valdez · PIT | 26.5% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.070 |
| — SEA @ COL | Cal Raleigh · SEA | 22.9% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.052 |
| — CHC @ CIN | Pete Crow-Armstrong · CHC | 26.6% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.071 |
| — COL @ ATL | Matt Olson · ATL | 28.8% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.083 |
| — STL @ COL | Hunter Goodman · COL | 28.2% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.080 |
| — CWS @ MIN | Miguel Vargas · CWS | 24.1% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.058 |
| — MIN @ CWS | Munetaka Murakami · CWS | 23.6% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.056 |
| — BAL @ NYY | Pete Alonso · BAL | 25.8% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.066 |
| — CHC @ SEA | Dominic Canzone · SEA | 23.0% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.053 |
| — MIL @ NYM | Jake Bauers · MIL | 19.5% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.038 |
| — BAL @ COL | Coby Mayo · BAL | 22.1% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.049 |
| — NYY @ TB | Victor Mesa Jr. · TB | 20.9% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.044 |
| — MIL @ PHI | Kyle Schwarber · PHI | 25.7% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.066 |
| — ATL @ MIN | Matt Olson · ATL | 25.7% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.066 |
| — COL @ CWS | Munetaka Murakami · CWS | 28.0% publication time not recorded | — | Happened | Brier 0.519 |
| — ATL @ PHI | Matt Olson · ATL | 28.4% publication time not recorded | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.080 |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.