Premier League · Over 2.5 goals
46 forecasts published · 46 measured · 0 not final · 0 void or not measurable. Models: epl-model-v1-split-poisson, epl-model-v2-elo-poisson.
0.263Brier score (n 46), lower is better
0.747log loss, lower is better
52.3% → 50.0%average forecast → how often it happened
0.192calibration error (ECE)
Calibration
When we said a chance in each band, how often did it happen? A well-calibrated forecast lands close to its own number. Small bands are noisy.
| We said | Forecasts | Average forecast | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 6.9% | 100.0% |
| 10–20% | 1 | 12.7% | 100.0% |
| 30–40% | 6 | 35.1% | 16.7% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 46.1% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 20 | 53.7% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 64.5% | 87.5% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.2% | 66.7% |
| 80–90% | 1 | 86.4% | 0.0% |
Latest forecasts
The 46 most recent of 46. Download all 46 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Fulham v Manchester United | 52.9% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.280 |
| 2026-09-20 Leeds United v Crystal Palace | Leeds United v Crystal Palace | 52.9% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.280 |
| 2026-09-20 Bournemouth v Liverpool | Bournemouth v Liverpool | 52.9% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.280 |
| 2026-09-20 Manchester City v Sunderland | Manchester City v Sunderland | 52.9% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.222 |
| 2026-09-19 Nottingham Forest v Coventry City | Nottingham Forest v Coventry City | 52.9% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-19 16:09Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.280 |
| 2026-09-19 Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal | Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal | 52.9% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-19 13:59Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.222 |
| 2026-09-19 Everton v Ipswich Town | Everton v Ipswich Town | 52.9% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-19 13:59Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.280 |
| 2026-09-19 Newcastle United v Hull City | Newcastle United v Hull City | 52.9% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-19 13:59Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.222 |
| 2026-09-19 Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa | Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa | 52.3% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-18 23:02Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.228 |
| 2026-09-18 Brentford v Chelsea | Brentford v Chelsea | 52.3% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-17 23:30Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.228 |
| 2026-09-14 Leeds United v Newcastle United | Leeds United v Newcastle United | 57.1% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-13 23:04Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.184 |
| 2026-09-13 Manchester United v Manchester City | Manchester United v Manchester City | 51.9% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-12 22:44Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.269 |
| 2026-09-13 Coventry City v Brighton & Hove Albion | Coventry City v Brighton & Hove Albion | 12.7% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-12 22:44Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.763 |
| 2026-09-12 Sunderland v Arsenal | Sunderland v Arsenal | 34.0% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-12 18:02Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.115 |
| 2026-09-12 Tottenham Hotspur v Everton | Tottenham Hotspur v Everton | 48.4% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-12 16:27Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.234 |
| 2026-09-12 Liverpool v Fulham | Liverpool v Fulham | 56.5% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-12 13:52Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.319 |
| 2026-09-12 Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest | 63.4% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-12 13:52Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.134 |
| 2026-09-12 Bournemouth v Brentford | Bournemouth v Brentford | 41.5% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-12 13:52Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.342 |
| 2026-09-12 Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town | Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town | 56.6% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-12 13:52Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.188 |
| 2026-09-12 Chelsea v Hull City | Chelsea v Hull City | 6.9% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-12 13:52Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.867 |
| 2026-09-06 Arsenal v Chelsea | Arsenal v Chelsea | 62.8% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-06 15:00Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.139 |
| 2026-09-06 Everton v Manchester United | Everton v Manchester United | 40.6% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-05 22:29Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.352 |
| 2026-09-05 Hull City v Aston Villa | Hull City v Aston Villa | 31.6% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-05 16:11Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.100 |
| 2026-09-05 Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur | Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur | 53.9% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-05 13:40Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.291 |
| 2026-09-05 Fulham v Crystal Palace | Fulham v Crystal Palace | 48.2% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-05 13:40Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.268 |
| 2026-09-05 Manchester City v Coventry City | Manchester City v Coventry City | 86.4% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-05 13:40Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.746 |
| 2026-09-05 Brentford v Sunderland | Brentford v Sunderland | 48.9% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-05 13:40Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.239 |
| 2026-09-05 Newcastle United v Bournemouth | Newcastle United v Bournemouth | 71.8% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-04 22:47Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.079 |
| 2026-09-04 Ipswich Town v Liverpool | Ipswich Town v Liverpool | 73.4% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-09-03 23:12Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.539 |
| 2026-08-31 Aston Villa v Arsenal | Aston Villa v Arsenal | 50.2% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-30 23:20Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.252 |
| 2026-08-30 Manchester United v Ipswich Town | Manchester United v Ipswich Town | 60.3% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-29 22:56Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.157 |
| 2026-08-30 Sunderland v Fulham | Sunderland v Fulham | 37.6% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-29 22:56Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.141 |
| 2026-08-30 Leeds United v Brentford | Leeds United v Brentford | 52.8% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-29 22:56Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.279 |
| 2026-08-29 Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 64.0% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-29 15:27Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.409 |
| 2026-08-29 Bournemouth v Everton | Bournemouth v Everton | 32.4% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-29 03:05Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.105 |
| 2026-08-29 Coventry City v Hull City | Coventry City v Hull City | 56.6% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-29 03:05Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.321 |
| 2026-08-29 Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 65.7% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-29 03:05Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.118 |
| 2026-08-24 Fulham v Chelsea | Fulham v Chelsea | 57.4% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-24 18:52Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.182 |
| 2026-08-23 Newcastle United v Liverpool | Newcastle United v Liverpool | 67.6% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-23 15:15Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.105 |
| 2026-08-23 Manchester City v Bournemouth | Manchester City v Bournemouth | 77.4% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-23 12:38Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.051 |
| 2026-08-22 Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur | Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur | 69.9% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-22 16:17Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.090 |
| 2026-08-22 Ipswich Town v Sunderland | Ipswich Town v Sunderland | 38.3% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-21 23:51Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.380 |
| 2026-08-22 Nottingham Forest v Leeds United | Nottingham Forest v Leeds United | 49.1% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-21 23:51Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.241 |
| 2026-08-22 Everton v Crystal Palace | Everton v Crystal Palace | 36.5% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-21 23:51Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.133 |
| 2026-08-22 Hull City v Manchester United | Hull City v Manchester United | 53.4% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-21 23:51Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.285 |
| 2026-08-21 Arsenal v Coventry City | Arsenal v Coventry City | 62.8% · OVER_2_5_GOALS published 2026-08-21 18:18Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.139 |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.