Preseason · week 4 · Saturday, Aug 29, 6:00 PM ET · started
Chicago Bearsat
Tennessee TitansEXPERIMENTAL
Nissan Stadium
This game has kicked off. Everything below is exactly what was published before kickoff and has not been changed since — that is the point of keeping it.
What a league-average preseason game looks like
10,000 simulated games · model nfl-preseason-public-beta-v1
Read the range, not the score. This model has no measurable read on which of these two teams is better in preseason: the coefficient linking team strength to margin is indistinguishable from zero (t = -0.5746, 95% interval [-0.077667,0.042782]). Rather than publish a direction it cannot support, the team term is set to zero, so this forecast reflects preseason scoring and home context only. The numbers below are a real, reproducible simulation — they are just not a read on these two teams, so treat the projected scoreline as the middle of a wide range rather than a prediction.
Projected score
CHI 19 — 18 TEN
median of every simulated game
Win chance
CHI 53.7% · TEN 46.3%
ties 3.4%
Total points
37
usually between 23 and 52
Margin
-1
80% of games land -17 to 16
Shrunk toward 50% by a factor fit before testing (λ=0.25).
How wide the outcomes are
the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score
| Team | Low (10th) | Projected | High (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 8 | 19 | 30 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7 | 18 | 29 |
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
46.3%
TEN to win
Sportsbook win chance
52.7%
median of 9 books, margin removed
Difference
-6.5 pp
percentage points — a difference, not a recommendation
Totals
37 vs 37
our median against the market total
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured 2026-08-29T17:50:39Z — before kickoff.
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Experimental
- This model has not been shown to be sharper than the sportsbook price. Its results are tracked openly.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-preseason-public-beta-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- f3556d9a0681d7c2
- generated
- 2026-08-29T18:16:23Z
- kickoff
- 2026-08-29T22:00Z
- state
- SETTLED
Tested on a full held-out preseason, this model picked winners no better than a coin flip. Its win percentages are therefore deliberately pulled close to 50% — the widest it will ever go is 45.3%–50.6%.
Experimental preseason model. Educational and paper-only — not betting advice, and not shown to beat the market.