Model score lean: 0–0 draw lean. This aligns with level at 90' is live (29% draw) + Under 2.5 goals + one side kept off the scoresheet (BTTS No). · 29% draw chance at 90' · tight moneyline · low-scoring, one-side-quiet profile
De-vigged from real posted odds. 90-minute regulation markets only. Markets the current feed does not offer are listed as Unavailable — never fabricated.
| Market | Pick | Odds | Model probability | Confidence | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full-Time Moneyline | Colombia | +118 | 44% | Coin-flip | 90-minute regulation; Draw is a real third outcome. |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -167 | 59% | Coin-flip | Line 2.5. |
| BTTS | BTTS No | -132 | 53% | Coin-flip | Both teams to score, 90 minutes. |
| Double Chance | Colombia or Draw | -345 | 73% | Coin-flip | Favorite avoids defeat (win or draw). |
| Draw No Bet | Colombia (DNB) | -200 | 61% | Coin-flip | Stake refunded on a draw. |
| 1st Half Moneyline | Not offered | — | — | — | Not offered by current feed |
| 1st Half Total | Not offered | — | — | — | Not offered by current feed |
| Total Corners | Not offered | — | — | — | Not offered by current feed |
| Cards | Not offered | — | — | — | Not offered by current feed |
Expected game script: Cautious, low-scoring — one side likely kept quiet.
Advancement here is a 90-minute model proxy, not an outright market — extra time and penalties can still flip a tie.
The model leans Colombia (+118, 44% to win in regulation) in a coin-flip tie where the draw is very much live. The totals lean is Under 2.5 (59%), and the model takes BTTS No on both-teams-to-score. Cautious, low-scoring — one side likely kept quiet.
Built only from this game's posted team markets (moneyline, total, BTTS, double chance) — same-game and correlated. Combined prices are a model estimate from multiplying the real leg prices.
The favorite avoids defeat (double chance) alongside the model's own total and BTTS picks — the lowest-variance, same-direction legs the board already favors.
⚠ MODEL ESTIMATE from multiplying individual prices — a real book prices correlated same-game legs SHORTER.
The model's moneyline favorite paired with its total-goals pick — a moderate combo pointed the same way as the expected game script.
⚠ MODEL ESTIMATE from multiplying individual prices — a real book prices correlated same-game legs SHORTER.
The moneyline favorite stacked with the model's total and BTTS picks for a longer same-game price — higher variance because every leg has to land.
⚠ MODEL ESTIMATE from multiplying individual prices — a real book prices correlated same-game legs SHORTER.
Player props pending — they will appear when this game enters the active betting window.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice